Lt. Gen "Ben" Hodges, Commander U.S. Army in Europe, on the Russian moves towards Mariupol in eastern Ukraine in Feb. 2015

02/08/2015

Ben Hodges describes the Russian threat to peace in Eastern Europe under president Putin and the need for U.S. preparedness.

Linked Articles

The View From NATO’s Russian Front

Wall Street Journal 02/09/2015

Sohrab Ahmari, Sohrab, Ahmari

New York Times 02/08/2015

Rick Lyman, Rick, Lyman

Deep differences in 2015 between Alexis Tsipras of Syriza and the Merkel government in Germany on debt forgiveness and the bailouts for Greece

01/26/2015

The deep differences between Greeks and Merkel operate at two levels. On the level of austerity policies Greece shares the view with other EU countries, the governments of Hollande in France and Renzi in Italy that austerity is not the best course for the eurozone. This view is also shared by people in Spain facing unemployment exceeding 20%, though the government of Rajoy in Spain like that of Samaras in Greece lived with the austerity policies with some changes. At this level there is also support from within Merkel's coalition government from Social Democrats. The other level of deep differences is on debt forgiveness and bailouts where Greece has to find its own way out in negotiations hoping that the EU and the IMF will agree to make concessions based on action taken by Syriza to ensure prudence in fianncial management. On issues such as minimum wage one would expect Syriza to be firm and make concessions where the hardship does not fall on the poorer and working class, winning support from the Social Democrats in Merkel's coalition. Beyond the symbolic moves and posturing the actual negotiations are likely to take into account the eurozone's need for help on the fiscal side desired by the ECB's Draghi to support monetary easing to fight deflation, and the need to keep the eurozone intact at a sensitive time. Syriza for its part is aware that a majority of Greeks favor staying in the eurozone.

Linked Articles

Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post

Washington Post 01/26/2015

Ishaan Tharoor, Ishaan, Tharoor

Washington Post 01/27/2015

Griff Witte, Griff, Witte

Looking back at Hong Kong and China today and yesterday- China in 1842 and in 1945, nationalism and commercial interests of foreign powers

01/09/2015

A wariness with foreign powers in China stems from the influences left behind from the British commercial interests and the Japanese invasion of China. Compared to that period, the period of collaboration on an equal footing and playing field is is a short and recent one that has taken place for just three decades 1985-2015. Fears that the accelerated development in China could slow down without a strong central government, combine with the awareness of the need for western technology and open communications in today's global economy to accelerate the development, create in the Chinese mind a problem that needs to be tackled carefully to continue progress. Awareness of the huge inequalities and corruption in the rush towards modernization, need to tackle extensive contamination of air and water, and need for social security and healthcare for an aging population create a new urgency for careful policy making to sustain progress.

Linked Articles

Gentlemen Drug Dealers

Wall Street Journal 01/12/2015

George Walden, George, Walden

New York Times 01/09/2015

Thomas J. Christensen, Thomas, J., Christensen

The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015

12/18/2014

A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.

Linked Articles

Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Gregory White, Gregory, White, Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, James Marson, James, Marson

Two party systems and Malaysia's UMNO Party- (2) the future economic prospects of Malaysia under Razak, India under Modi, Indonesia under Widodo

12/08/2014

Najib Razak follows his father Tun Abdul Razak, Mahathir before him, all the way back to Tunku Abdul Rahman, all of the UMNO party, in an uninterrupted control of the United Malay Naional Organization Party which has ruled Malaysia for almost 6 decades. Malaysia has followed the example of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore by keeping the opposition parties weak to maintain control. Both the UMNO and the party of Lee in Singapore face questions about the merits of suppressing the development of two party systems, at a time when government is changing hands to opposition parties in most of the region and improving economic prospects in each country with a change of government- Abe in Japan, Widodo in Indonesia, Modi and Sharif in India and Pakistan, Aquino in the Philippines, Wickremesinghe in Sri Lanka. A economic drift with no clear direction under Singh and Bhutto in India and Pakistan was reversed with the election of Modi and Sharif, the economic drift and deflation under the Kan and Noda governments was reversed in Japan with the election of Abe, and the economic drift in Indonesia is being reversed by the Widodo government. This shows how critical two party systems are to functioning democracies as middle classes develop and voters look for competing views of the future to choose from.

Linked Articles

Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader

Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015

Tom Wright, Tom, Wright

Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014

Patrick Mcdowell, Patrick, Mcdowell, Ben Otto, Ben, Otto, Matt Murray, Matt, Murray

Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views

11/20/2014

Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.

Linked Articles

Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

Eleanor Warnock, Eleanor, Warnock

New York Times 11/20/2014

Martin Fackler, Martin, Fackler

Bank of Japan's Kuroda adopts the ECB's Draghi's stance on the economy, saying "we will do whatever it takes" in Nov. 2014

10/31/2014

Efforts by Kuroda to reach the 2% inflation target in 2 years.

Linked Articles

Bank of Japan Announces Massive Stimulus Move

Wall Street Journal 11/01/2014

Jacob Schlesinger, Jacob, Schlesinger, Eleanor Warnock, Eleanor, Warnock, Takashi Nakamichi, Takashi, Nakamichi

New York Times 10/31/2014

Jonathan Soble, Jonathan, Soble

Impact of higher gas prices on Tesla Motors in 2014-2015

10/22/2014

Linked Articles

Tesla May Run Slow on Cheap Gas

Wall Street Journal 12/05/2014

Justin Lahart, Justin, Lahart

Wall Street Journal 10/22/2014

Mike Ramsey, Mike, Ramsey, Joseph White, Joseph, White

Dangers of credit fueled bubble in China- 2015-2016

10/17/2014

Bob Davis of WSJ sees the end of China's economic miracle in 2015-2016. He is pessimistic about the future. The Economist cites estimates of debt to GDP reaching 250%, and the IMF warns of the dangers of credit fueled growth citing examples of Ireland, Spain, Brazil and Sweden.

Linked Articles

The End of China’s Economic Miracle?

Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Economist 10/17/2014

Economist.Com

Vanguard former chief investment officer, "Gus" Sauter, and Yale Prof. Shiller, on the stock market pullback in Fall 2014

10/07/2014

Linked Articles

The Wall Street Journal

Wall Street Journal 10/11/2014

Jason Zweig, Jason, Zweig

Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014

George "Gus" Sauter, George, "Gus", Sauter

Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014

10/02/2014

The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.

Linked Articles

Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters

New York Times 12/17/2014

Andrew Roth, Andrew, Roth

New York Times 10/02/2014

Andrew E. Kramer, Andrew, E., Kramer

Profiles in courage, women renewing large organizations- Christine Lagarde at the IMF and Ginni Rometty at IBM

08/25/2014

Lagarde says in an intervew in the Washington Post, that she believes women come into leadership at large organizations when the job is tough, requiring everything you can give.

Linked Articles

Christine Lagarde: ‘Don’t let the bastards get you’ - The Washington Post

Washington Post 08/25/2014

Jillian Cunningham, Jillian, Cunningham, Christine Lagarde, Christine, Lagarde

Wall Street Journal 04/21/2015

Monica Langley, Monica, Langley

The West and policies towards Russia- (2) Steinmeier and Merkel on Germany's policy in 2015-2016

08/23/2014

Linked Articles

Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to Russia

Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014

Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski, Paul Sonne, Paul, Sonne

New York Times 11/19/2014

Alison Smale, Alison, Smale