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Austerity measures and economic contraction in Portugal 2010-2013- the terms of the 2011 EU-IMF loan agreement with Portugal
05/05/2011
The forecasts of higher unemployment reaching 17% and economic contraction of 7% for 2011-2013 are widely diverging from the original estimates in 2011 by EU and IMF officials. This increases the urgency for reappraisal of the terms of the original agreement including borrowing rates, giving more time to achieve deficit targets, and other action to put Portugal back on the road to growth in 2014.
Linked Articles
Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2013
Government Sees Deep Recession Ahead for PortugalNew York Times 05/05/2011
The remarkable composition and growth of the largest immigrant filled city in the world- New York City
03/25/2011
With 47% of the employed population being immigrants, the presence of immigrants has shaped the city and contributed to its economic vitality. Without immigrants the population would be declining as happened in a prior decade, and economic vitality would be affected. Many of the immigrants are from Mexico, China, India and the Caribbean.
Linked Articles
Immigration Remakes and Sustains New York, Report Finds
New York Times 12/18/2013
Blacks Leave City as Asians Propel GrowthWall Street Journal 03/25/2011
Statistical problems with China's government statistics which understate the housing bubble and overstate the rate of growth in 2011-2013
02/17/2011
Problems with data from China's Bureau of Statistics which do not accurately reflect the economic conditions in China.
Linked Articles
Chinese Data Said to Be Manipulated, Understating Slowdown
New York Times 06/22/2012
China Scraps Property Data, Clouding ViewWall Street Journal 02/17/2011
Egypt's economic development and falling behind the modern world- IMF guidance and the road back to growth and opportunity
02/03/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2011
Egypt and IMF Reach Tentative Loan DealWall Street Journal 11/21/2012
Angela Merkel's experience with the reunification of East and West Germany and her views of the eurozone crisis
01/30/2011
The perceptions of the eurozone crisis of ordinary Germans and of former East German Angela Merkel are colored by the period of reunification of the two Germany's. This was paid for with a"solidarity surcharge" tax paid by Germans amounting to $1.7 trillion and led in its early stages to 4 million unemployed in the eastern part and 20% unemployment. It took over a decade for East Germany to build new modernized industries in the larger cities of the east, but still leaves the rural parts of former East Germany in a neglected state as young peoplemoved out. During this period industry in the west also regained lost global competitiveness, especially in industries such as automobiles and advanced machinery, using wage restraint agreements with unions and increases in productivity. Germans see the need for eurozone countries in the southern part of Europe needing to make similiar sacrifices and see the tax evasion in Italy and Greece as unacceptable. The real estate bubble, the lack of transparency for banks bad loans, and out of control regional spending in Spain is also seen in a similiar light. Greece is seen as the most egregious offendor because of the bad financial accounting that grossly understated the extent of the bad loans. Less publicized in Germany is the role played in the bad loans through poor lending practices of German and French banks and that as experts have pointed out Germany was to some extent bailing out German banks when it was bailing out Greece- till German banks reduced their exposure to Greece in 2011.
Linked Articles
In former East Germany, anxious residents resent paying for Europe’s problems - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/21/2012
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
Inequality, the middle class and economic growth
01/15/2011
Studies show a growing middle class and lower middle class as one of the conditions underpinning steady economic growth. Adam Smith also points this out in his book The Wealth of Nations, written in the 18th century as England began its transformaton with the Industrial Revolution. Growing wages created a middle class and demand for goods and services that enable England to prosper. A similiar process took place in the U.S. with Henry Ford's effort to provide higher wages in his automobile plants in the 1920's that led to a growing middle class able to afford automobiles.
Linked Articles
Inequality: The rich and the rest
Economist 01/15/2011
The 1 Percent Clubâs Misguided ProtectorsNew York Times 12/10/2011
Taylor and Cochrane say the French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion in the Greece debt crisis from the beginning
12/02/2010
Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. Taylor at Stanford University, say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning as a way to delay writedowns on Greek bonds held by the banks. The appearance of lurching from one summit negotiation to the next throughout 2011 dented confidence in the eurozone with slowing or negative growth in eurozone economies, and is likely to hurt banks operating in the new economic enviroment.
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Stiglitz and Krugman point to the dangers in the Cameron-Osborne austerity measures in Britain
10/20/2010
Jospeh Stiglitz writing in the Guardian in 2010, at the time of the first Osborne Budget, said it was a huge gamble that the private secotr would pick up enough to make up for the impact of the budget cuts. Lower growth would mean lower tax revenues and deficit reduction targets would be missed. Krugman points out that the 490,000 job losses planned through attrition under the Osborne plan is similiar to 3 million in job losses in the U.S., a huge risk for the British economy.
Linked Articles
Britain Details Radical Spending Cuts, Citing Debt
New York Times 10/20/2010
British Fashion VictimsNew York Times 10/21/2010
Mexico and Brazil- failures in the educational system and constraints to economic growth
09/04/2010
Linked Articles
Mexico’s failing schools spell defeat for ruling party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/09/2012
Educational Gaps Limit Brazil's ReachNew York Times 09/04/2010
The growth compact for Europe: increasing German wages to benefit German workers and increase imports from other eurozone countries
08/17/2010
German workers exercized a decade of wage restraint under the Hartz reforms. This has led to a large increase in the sector of lower paid workers. Polls show 4 out of 5 workers feel they have not benefitted from the growth in the economy in Germany. Higher German wages coupled with wage restraint in France, Spain, Italy and other eurozone countries would help increase imports into Germany from other eurozone coutnries. This would help rebalance the eurozone economies.
Linked Articles
Germany's Inflated Fear of Inflation
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
German Workers' Wages Belie Country's ReboundWall Street Journal 08/17/2010
The paradox of low U.S. productivity growth holding back wages in 2015-2016 (2)- Apple, Google, Facebook and low productivity improvement since 2005
07/01/2010
Linked Articles
Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
BusinessWeek 07/01/2010
The Mystery of Declining Productivity GrowthWall Street Journal 05/15/2015
Workers at Hon Hai, Honda, and other companies in China struggle for higher wages.
05/29/2010
China's governmet policy shifts to encourage higher wages to promote domestic consumption.
Linked Articles
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
New York Times 05/29/2010
Hon Hai to Raise Workers' PayWall Street Journal 05/29/2010
Strike at Honda and suicides at Hon Hai reflect worker dissatisfaction.
05/29/2010
Wages an issue at both companies. Military style discipline and monotony of life and work an issue at Hon Hai which employs 800,000 workers in China and is a key part of the Chinese manufacturing system which makes all kinds of electronic products
Linked Articles
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About Foxconn
BusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China EconomyNew York Times 05/29/2010
Mexico and India- failures in the educational system and constraints to economic growth
04/05/2011
Linked Articles
Mexico’s failing schools spell defeat for ruling party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/09/2012
India Graduates Millions, but Too Few Are Fit to HireWall Street Journal 04/05/2011
Lower economic growth in the U.S. and Europe from oil price increases in 2012
03/01/2011
Linked Articles
Fears of a 2008 Repeat for Oil
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2012
Oil's Rise Threatens Economic GrowthWall Street Journal 03/01/2011
Egypt's economic crisis and falling behind the modern world- the future and the road back to growth and opportunity
02/03/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2011
Muslim Brotherhood Looks West in Bid to Revive Egyptian EconomyWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
High youth unemployment and lack of economic growth in Italy
02/02/2011
Linked Articles
Italy Seeks to Spur Growth, Narrowing Gap With Peers
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2011
The Youth Unemployment BombBusinessWeek 02/02/2011
The slow shift to healthy choices at grocery chains and restaurants in the U.S. even as the healthcare costs reach alarming proportions
01/20/2011
U.S. companies, workers, and the U.S. economy is squeezed between the growth in obesity related diabetes and other obesity related diseases and the growth in health care costs to treat these diseases. Yet no coordinated action plan exists to tackle the problem between companies, government, universities, public interest groups, and other groups. And the progress charted out by grocery chains, restaurants and other organizations in the food business to provide and encourage healthy choices is incredibly slow.
Linked Articles
Wal-Mart Plans to Make Its House Brand Healthier
New York Times 01/20/2011
Low-Cal Items Fuel Restaurant SalesWall Street Journal 02/07/2013
The case for increasing the minimum wage (4) Galbraith and "The Spirit Level"
01/15/2011
Linked Articles
Inequality: The rich and the rest
Economist 01/15/2011
Tom Keene Talks to James K. GalbraithBusinessWeek 11/23/2011
The prospects of a stalled economy in China as the productivity of capital deteriorates
11/23/2010
Inflation, repressed consumers, and the failure of current economic policy to produce the kind of sustainable growth China needs. One of the concerns raised before the Asian economic crisis of 1997 was the poor and declining productivity of capital in some Asian countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 01/20/2011
Sclerosis in China's Economic VeinsWall Street Journal 11/23/2010
The U.S. Federal Reserve's increased purchase of Treasury debt with QE1 and QE2 and only slight increase in economic growth in the U.S.
10/07/2010
IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisors, and Moodys Analytics models showing insignificant impact on U.S. from QE1, QE2 efforts. Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight's model showing only a 0.1% increase in U.S. growth rate from $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Linked Articles
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
Fed’s $2 Trillion May Buy Little Improvement in JobsBusinessWeek 10/07/2010
Traffic Jam- Extreme air pollution from hyper levels of automobile growth in China
08/24/2010
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2013
China Traffic Jam Could Last WeeksWall Street Journal 08/24/2010
Germany's second quarter 2010 growth of 9% is unsustainable.
08/14/2010
The downside to the lower unemployment rate is the rapid growth in the low-wage sector in Germany. Consumer spemding is tight in Germany and the surge in exports cannot last. The contrast between the impact of German gorwth on the countries in Northern and Southern Europe.
Linked Articles
Germany Propels Growth in Euro Zone
Wall Street Journal 08/14/2010
German Workers' Wages Belie Country's ReboundWall Street Journal 08/17/2010
How America's need for low wage manufactured products is colliding with worker demands inside China.
06/03/2010
The beginnings of a Chinese workers movement for higher wages and better working conditions that has support within the universities, state run media and the government. The government sees the need to build up domestic consumption as austerity measures in western countries threaten the sustainability of the old export model; and sees higher worker wages make sense in this context.
Linked Articles
The Rise of a Chinese Worker's Movement
BusinessWeek 06/10/2010
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About FoxconnBusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Japan's view of China as a low cost manufacturing base is challenged.
05/29/2010
The Honda strike for higher wages upsets this perception.
Linked Articles
Chinese Honda Strike a Wake-Up Call for Japan
New York Times 06/01/2010
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China EconomyNew York Times 05/29/2010
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