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Wage hikes and excess demand for labor in China in 2012-2013 reduce the need for Stimulus
03/14/2012
The need for stimulus to keep jobs for migrant workers and maintain social stability does not exist in 2012 the way it appeared in 2008, when about 20% of migrant workers lost their jobs and wages for migrant workers fell by 10%, according to estimates by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. In 2012 there is excess demand for labor and reports show the efforts to reduce the 60 hour work week in some factories is running into problems with a shortage of labor. This means less need for stimulus that would aggravate problems in the housing bubble and inflation.
Linked Articles
China's Workers in No Need of Stimulation
Wall Street Journal 06/04/2012
China's Wage Hikes Ripple Across AsiaWall Street Journal 03/14/2012
Tax increases on the wealthy in Japan by the Shinzo Abe government to go with an increase in the sales tax to 10%
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Tokyo Set to Raise Levy on Wealthiest
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2013
Prime Minister Noda says tax hike essential for Japan's sustainability - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/04/2012
Exit from the Eurozone and return to the drachma as the most likely and best outcome for Greece after April 2012 elections
02/22/2012
John Taylor and the Ifo Institue's Sinn say the recapitalization of Greece's banks and the lower interest rates negotiated after the March 2012 bailout make exiting the euro and achieving economic growth doable. The Papdemos government's need for time till 2015 to complete the program of changes, and the elections in April 2012 in which opposition parties outpolled Pasok and New Democrachy lays the political groundwork for the exit.
Linked Articles
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Mark Fields and the restructuring effort at Ford Motor Company
02/18/2012
The effort to reduce unprofitable assets and improve profit margins at Ford Motor Company.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/29/2012
Mark Fields Is Fordâs Mr. Inside, and Its Heir ApparentNew York Times 02/18/2012
U.S. automaker GM's efforts to reduce risk levels from pension obligations in 2012-2013
02/16/2012
WIth lower margins than competitors General Motors (GM) is increasing the margin of safety by reducing risk levels from its underfunded pension plan.
Linked Articles
GM Acts to Pare Pension Liability
Wall Street Journal 06/02/2012
GM Cuts Benefits for Salaried StaffWall Street Journal 02/16/2012
The likelihood of greater public contribution towards Greece's debt and changes to the IMF program after May 2012 elections in Greece and France
02/13/2012
France's Socialist presidential candidate Hollande considers the EU-IMF programs a failure of governance in Europe. He predicts larger public contributions to Greece's debt after the elections in Greece and France.
Linked Articles
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
French Candidate Hollande Assails European Policy on GreeceNew York Times 02/13/2012
Obama's 2012 presidential campaign and weak support from financially struggling white voters
01/13/2012
By a 26% margin financially strapped white voters affected by high unemployment favor Romney over Obama. This is wider than the 18% margin by which Obama, Kerry and Gore lost this group in prior elections. It will be crucial in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan which were hard hit by the economic downturn.
Linked Articles
Romney holds key advantages among financially struggling white voters - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/25/2012
White Blue-Collar Vote May Be Crucial in ElectionNew York Times 01/13/2012
The passage of the unpopular sales tax hike and political uncertainty in Japan
12/27/2011
Critics say the Democratic Party of Japan should have invested efforts in its election promises to cut wasteful spending. Polls show a majority of Japanese oppose the doubling of the sales tax to 10%.
Linked Articles
Vote Ensures Japan Will Double Sales Tax to 10%
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2012
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
Martin Feldstein on why the "Fiscal Compact" agreed to in December 2011 by EU countries is a failure
12/15/2011
Linked Articles
Europe Needs the Bond Vigilantes
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2012
The Euro Zone's Double FailureWall Street Journal 12/15/2011
The situation in Athens, Greece, in Dec. 2011, with the German insistence on strict austerity measures
11/27/2011
The likelihood that Greeks would vote against austerity measures as a condition for staying in the euro, if a referendum were held as proposed.
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
The Spirit of EnterpriseNew York Times 12/01/2011
China's declining competitiveness with price increases for land, labor and electricity (1)
10/07/2011
The shifting of plant location to Mexico and the U.S.
Linked Articles
Made in China Is Getting Expensive
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2012
Otis Shifts Work Closer to HomeWall Street Journal 10/07/2011
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
The disenfranchisement of the south, western and eastern coastal regions with U.S. presidential elections determined in midwestern battleground states
09/06/2011
Linked Articles
The Vanishing Electoral Battleground
New York Times 11/03/2012
The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven StatesWall Street Journal 09/06/2011
The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
BP stays in the Gulf after the Gulf Oil Spill
03/03/2012
BP executives say BP plans to invest $4 billion each year in oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico for the next decade, 2012-20122. Investments will be made in safety for deep water drilling.
Linked Articles
BP Expects to Spend $4 Billion a Year in Gulf
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2012
BP, plaintiffs reach Gulf of Mexico oil spill settlement - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/03/2012
Obama, election advisor Plouffe, and how election politics imprint on "everything" in the Obama White House may have distorted responsible governing
02/20/2012
Linked Articles
Obama Adviser's Strategy Is High Risk, High Reward
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
Plouffe, Obama Aide, Lends Firm Hand to CampaignNew York Times 02/20/2012
GM, Ford and Chrysler efforts to improve profit margins in 2011-2013
02/16/2012
Detroit automakers profit margins lag behind Hyundai and VW which have 9% margins. The lower margins leaves Detroit automakers more exposed to risks from swings in the market. Detroit automakers are showing improved discipline in reducing inventory overhang and keeping supply in closee relation to demand. Still Ford's small car inventory is much higher than normal and Ford needs to reduce production to balance supply and demand at its higher prices.
Linked Articles
Detroit's Welcome Sticker Shock
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
GM Cuts Benefits for Salaried StaffWall Street Journal 02/16/2012
India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, and efforts to balance inflation goals with the need to stimulate growth in 2012
02/14/2012
The RBI made a rate cut of 0.5 percentage point in April 2012, following a series of rate increases in 2010-2011 to control inflationary pressures. The RBI governor Devi Subbarao's view is that the government which faces a lack of political leadership and state elections needs to do more to increase growth.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
China's declining competitiveness with price increases for land, labor and electricity (2)
02/06/2012
The return of jobs and manufacturing plants from China to Mexico and the U.S. as China's competitiveness declines.
Linked Articles
Made in China Is Getting Expensive
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2012
China's Export Pain May Be Mexico's GainWall Street Journal 02/06/2012
Ford's effort to improve profit margins in 2010-2013
01/11/2012
Linked Articles
Mark Fields Is Fordâs Mr. Inside, and Its Heir Apparent
New York Times 02/18/2012
Small Cars Test Ford ResolveWall Street Journal 01/11/2012
Honda's struggle to recover after the tsunami in Japan with lower margins
12/21/2011
Honda is seeing lower margins as it struggles to recover in the U.S. and other markets. Honda had to use more incentives than Toyota in the U.S. market leading to deteriorating profit margins in 2012. Sales of newer models failed to catch on making Honda dependent on the Civic and the Accord in the U.S. market. The appreciating yen added to the impact on margins with a further shift to manufacturing overseas planned as a response.
Linked Articles
Honda Pins Revival on U.S. Auto Sales
Wall Street Journal 06/01/2012
Honda Revs Up Outside JapanWall Street Journal 12/21/2011
Britain, the eurozone crisis and a mood shifting towards Britain's exit from the European Union
12/07/2011
A British mood moving away from the positive engagement its economy needs with its largest trading partner, the other nations of the European Union. A Opinion/Observer poll in Nov. 2012 shows a majority of people in Britain would vote yes on a referendum to leave the European Union.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/22/2012
Britain Suffers as a Bystander to Europe's CrisisNew York Times 12/07/2011
China's move forward with nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear accident
10/10/2011
A move away from coal used for electricity supplies towards nuclear energy. The increase planned is from 11 gigawatts of nuclear energy in 2012 to 40 gigawatts by 2015 and 60-70 gigawatts by 2020. Five nuclear energy projects will be planned at a cost of $27 billion with financing help from a Shanghai IPO offering in 2012.
Linked Articles
China Nuclear Firm Plans Up to $27 Billion IPO
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2012
China Marches On With Nuclear Energy, in Spite of FukushimaNew York Times 10/10/2011
Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire- cost of manufacturing and margins
09/29/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/12/2012
Launching New Tablet, Amazon Plays With FireWall Street Journal 09/29/2011
Germany's Pirate party of digital activists and anti-establishment sentiment
09/19/2011
The Pirate party won about 9% of the vote in the Berlin election. It is likely to win a similiar share of the vote in other state elections.
Linked Articles
'Pirates' Deal a Blow to Germany's Political Status Quo
Wall Street Journal 04/10/2012
Berlin Poll Hits Merkel CoalitionWall Street Journal 09/19/2011
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