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The broken link between credit expansion and GDP growth in China (1)
06/24/2013
Orlik and the editors of the WSJ point to the broken link between GDP growth and credit expansion. The IMF warns of increasing credit expansion. Stalling productivity growth and waste means every dollar of investment is bringing in less GDP growth. Stiglitz and Sen point out the need for improving other indicators such as healthcare, education and the environment as an overall guage of progress not just GDP growth. The new Chinese leadership is aware of the need for rebalance the economy towards consumer spending. Moves to reduce healthcare costs form the first efforts in this direction. Search terms "Orlik," "rebalancing."
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
China's Silver Linings PlaybookWall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Pakistan Railways and Iraqi Railways- a picture of the Middle East and South Asia in 2014
05/18/2013
Declan Walsh and Tim rango provide aunique insight into the lives of common people in two regions of Asia and the Middle East. A century after the European powers invested in railway lines connecting all parts of the Middle East from Turkey to Iraq and Syria, and connecting all parts of South Asia from the Afghan border to Ceylon, two reporters of the NYT visit the railways in both regions showing the prevailing state of affairs. In Iraq decades of wars and conflict have reduced the railways to a crumbling condition. In South Asia mismanagement, cronyism, corruption has led to disinvestment in Pakistan Railways and inflicted similiar damage to the rail network. Through rail one can see into the life of common people in these regions. What one sees shows that five decades after the colonial powers left this region, the educated elites, the political parties, the military, the religious leaders, have all failed the common people of their homeland.
Linked Articles
A Train Ride Through Time: From Iraq’s Checkered Past Into an Uncertain Future
New York Times 10/18/2014
In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nationâs TroublesNew York Times 05/18/2013
Losses and management turnover at mining companies leading to scaling back of orders of mining equipment and Caterpillar performance
01/18/2013
Losses at Rio Tinto and Anglo-American with risky projects is leading to management turnover and a scaling back in investment. The lower commodity prices, declining growth in China and risk averse strategies in turn affects Caterpillar's growth in its key mining equipment business. Analysts do not expect the situation to improve till 2015.
Linked Articles
Caterpillar Chief Faults China Unit
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2013
Miner Rio Tinto Ousts CEO as Bad Bets Cost BillionsWall Street Journal 01/18/2013
The Swiss central bank's effort to keep Swiss Franc at 1.20 to the dollar and Japan's Abe government's push for the yen at 90 to the dollar
12/25/2012
A determined effort by the Swiss National Bank to preserve export competitiveness as eurozone economies contract in 2013, by printing francs and buying up euros and foreign assets. The effort is designed to counteract declining wages and prices in Switzerland. The newly elected Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe supports aggressive action by Japan's central bank to keep the yen between 85 yen and 90 yen to the U.S. dollar.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/25/2012
Button-Down Central Bank Bets It AllWall Street Journal 01/09/2013
Obama advisor, Christina Romer, and support for Simpson-Bowles recommendations on limiting deductions
11/10/2012
The Feldstein, Romney proposals based on the ideas of the Simpson Bowles Commission of limiting tax deductions finds convergence with Obama economic advisor, Christina Romer's support for Simpson Bowles recommendations after the 2012 presidential elections.
Linked Articles
Democrats Like a Romney Idea to Cap Tax Deductions
New York Times 11/12/2012
Budget Showdown Offers an Opportunity for ProgressNew York Times 11/10/2012
The high turnout of evangelical Christians and Catholics as a factor in the 2012 U.S. presidential election
10/31/2012
The voter turnout among evangelical Chrisitians could be a factor in the 2012 U.S. presidential election similiar to that in 2004. Both Romney and George W. Bush gaining this vote.
Linked Articles
Henninger: Romney's Secret Voting Bloc
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a WinnerWall Street Journal 10/31/2012
German chancellor Merkel and the EU plan for aid to Spain's banks in Oct. 2012
10/18/2012
Merkel turns down an effort pushed by France and Spain at the Oct. 2012 EU leaders meeting for direct aid to Spanish banks. Instead money has to go from the European Stability Mechanism fund to Spain after a request by Spain for aid. The aid request by Spain would be met under program of conditionality set by the IMF, EU and ECB. Spain is delaying a request for aid as borrowing rates on Spanish bonds declined to about 5% by late October 2012. The Rajoy government in Spain faces regional spending problems and separatis sentiment in addition to high unemployment and a worsening situation with its banks. Merkel faces elections for chancellor in Germany in Sept. 2013 and says more time is needed to setup the eurozone banking supervisory authority- to be set up in the course of 2013 with the legal setup completed by Jan 2013 as a concession to France. This would push banking supervision and financial architecture till after the election.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Europe Seeks a Spain StrategyWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
How uncertainty related to the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. is affecting the U.S. economy as business holds off on investment and hiring
10/03/2012
Linked Articles
Firms Hit Brakes Before Fiscal Cliff
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2012
Small Businesses Fear Fiscal Cliff Awaits at Year-EndWall Street Journal 10/03/2012
Indian prime minister Singh's economic plan in the face of slowing growth in 2012
09/21/2012
In a televised address Singh says the market opening measures for the retail and other sectors are needed to maintain growth and foreign investment. Finance minister Chidambaram tells the WSJ in an Oct 2012 interview- the risks were too great with India facing a lowering of its credit rating, and the government having reflected on the serious consequences of not acting spelled out in the worst case scenario of the Kelkar committee report. The Indian government actions include lowering diesel subsidies and action to control the deficit, with a plan to bring it down to 3% by 2017.
Linked Articles
Q&A With Finance Minister Chidambaram
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2012
Singh Appeals to India to Support His MeasuresNew York Times 09/21/2012
How keeping seniors as a protected class in current Social Security proposals impacts the young and leads to shrinking investments in defense, social programs, research, education and infrastructure
08/16/2012
This includes the Republican Paul Ryan proposal which also stays away from touching Social Security for today's seniors and passes on the costs to the young. Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue. Samuelson cites CBO estimates which show that even with shrinking defense and nondiscretionary spending by a third the U.S. deficit would still be 6.75% of GDP in 2023.
Linked Articles
Robert Samuelson: Ryan’s budget asks nothing of the elderly -; unfortunately - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/16/2012
Mr. Biden falls flat - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/16/2012
The failure of India's power grid in 2012 and the need for investment in power plants and energy sources
07/31/2012
Linked Articles
Power Failures Hit Millions in India
New York Times 07/31/2012
India's Power Network Breaks DownWall Street Journal 08/01/2012
The problems facing Morgan Stanley
07/19/2012
Questions about its long term future as an independent investment banking firm.
Linked Articles
Morgan Stanley Profit Sinks on Revenue Declines
Wall Street Journal 07/20/2012
Morgan Stanley Plays Beat the ClockWall Street Journal 07/19/2012
Election of a moderate cleric Rohani as Iran's president in 2013 after years of economic discontent from international sanctions.
07/13/2012
Rohani has attended theological seminary. He also attended law school in Tehran University and in Scotland where he completed master's and doctoral degrees in law. This gives him a unique understanding of the concept of the rule of law for an Iranian cleric. He cited his achievement of avoiding international sanctions as chief nuclear negotiator fo president Khatami, contrasting this with the Ahmadinejad years during pre-election televised debates.
Linked Articles
New Iran Leader Seen as Moderating Force
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2013
Iranâs Airliners Falter Under SanctionsNew York Times 07/13/2012
The common challenges facing Pakistan's elected democratic government and its military leaders in modernizing the economy
05/18/2013
A new dynamic is taking hold in South Asia even as Indian officials remain skeptical. China's prime minister Li Keqiang visits India with a trade delegaton and sees trade reaching $100 billion a year between the two countries and growing rapidly. Pakistan's military and civilian leaders also see the urgency for modernizing the economy and building infrastructure as Pakistan begins to catchup with its neighbors in Asia.
Linked Articles
Pakistan army chief meets incoming prime minister in ‘good omen’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/20/2013
In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nationâs TroublesNew York Times 05/18/2013
Funding infrastructure needs in Asia and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
02/14/2013
Led by China, and with founding members India, S. Korea, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Italy, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is intended to provide much needed financing for infrastructure in Asia. Huge bottlenecks for development exist in Asia's developing countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, which can only be tackled through innovative methods of financing. China which has moved ahead in infrastructure development is providing the leadership for this bank. Experts say Europe is right to join, and the U.S. should have supported the idea at the early stage.
Linked Articles
Hostility From U.S. as China Lures Allies to New Bank
New York Times 03/19/2015
Hot Topic in Moscow Talks: How to Fund InfrastructureWall Street Journal 02/14/2013
Governor Jerry Brown of California and investing in higher education- Brown's effort to replicate a remarkable feat under Edmund Brown
01/10/2013
Jerry Brown's father, Edmund Brown, was Governor of California in the 1960's when he helped build the UC and Cal State university system into a beacon for other states. The state's higher education system became a gateway into the U.S. middle class and powered the state's tech industry.
Linked Articles
Brown Looks at Reshaping Californiaâs Higher Education
New York Times 01/28/2013
State’s Rare Sight: A Budget SurplusWall Street Journal 01/10/2013
A more cautious Shinzo Abe as prime ministerof Japan in 2013- compared to 2006-2007
12/17/2012
Abe is determined not to repeat the mistakes of his first term as Japan's prime minister following the LDP's popular prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. That term ended with adefeat in the upper house elections and lasted only 10 months. This means staying close to the U.S. and toning down a nationalist message, with focus mainly on creating economic revival.
Linked Articles
Japanâs Next Leader, Shinzo Abe, Shifts Focus
New York Times 12/17/2012
Japan Voters Sweep In New LeaderWall Street Journal 12/17/2012
The electronics manufacturing bubble in Japan with large badly timed investments by Panasonic in plasma television and Sharp in LCD 's
11/01/2012
Linked Articles
Sony, Sharp and Panasonic Report Significant Losses
New York Times 11/01/2012
Panasonic Stock TumblesWall Street Journal 11/01/2012
CEO Sergio Ermotti shifts Swiss bank UBS away from investment banking- 2012-2014
10/28/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
UBS to Cut 10,000 Staff in OverhaulWall Street Journal 10/28/2012
The EU debate between France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel before and during the EU's Oct. 2012 meeting
10/17/2012
The issue was direct aid to Spanish banks and the early setup of an EU banking supervisor so that Spain could get early debt relief as its economy struggles with high unemployment of over 25%. Chancellor Merkel turned down direct aid to Spanish banks, and partly relented on banking supervision by agreeing to have the legislation completed by Jan 2013 and the actual setup of the supervision authority during the course of 2013, probably after elections in Germany in Sept. 2013.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Hollande fires warning shot at Merkel over austerity on eve of EU summit | World news | guardian.co.ukThe Guardian 10/17/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
The Obama admnistration and the conflict in Syria
08/28/2012
A brief history shows the Alawite community constitutes about 13% of the population in Syria and live mainly in the coastal region near the Mediterranean. Under the French Alawites generally supported the colonial regime and the community was used by the French colonial regime to act as a buffer as they ruled a predominantly Sunni population. The Alawites joined the military and Hafez Assad, an Alawite general, seized control in 1971. His son now rules Syria. The Obama administration has largely missed the struggle of the people for freedom from dictatorships in Syria and Egypt under Mubarak.. With Turkey and Egypt supporting the young people in Syria, the U.S. investment is minor in military and other support compared to the cost of letting the war continue with unintended consequences for the entire region.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/13/2012
Assad Draws Shock Troops From Elite Sect in SyriaWall Street Journal 08/28/2012
Romney's choice of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for the U.S. presidential election of 2012
08/11/2012
Linked Articles
Paul Ryan is Romney’s pick for vice presidential nominee - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/11/2012
George Will: Romney’s presidential pick - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/13/2012
Fiat's investment in Chrysler helps offset its losses in the European market
07/30/2012
The investment by Fiat's Sergio Marchionne in turning around Chrysler in the U.S. market now helps Fiat tackle a slowdown in European sales. Thi is in contrast to the situation facing Peugeot in France. Still Chrysler's lack of sales in emerging markets remains a weakness for Fiat-Chrysler, say analysts.
Linked Articles
Chrysler Reports $436 Million Profit for Second Quarter
New York Times 07/30/2012
In Turnabout, Chrysler Profit Offsets Fiat LossWall Street Journal 07/31/2012
Spain macroprudential supervision of its banking system once lauded now turns out to be "timid" and false, could the same be true for China?
07/18/2012
Spain's central bank had a reputation of providing good supervision for Spain's banking system. The problems at the Cajas Savings banks and the current assessment after the request for $125 billion in EU funds for Spain's banks shows how this turned out to be false. Does China face a similiar problem with its housing bubble. The U.S., UK and Spain, failed to control and manage the effects of a housing bubble, can China be a lone exception? Rapid growth enabled China to cope with bad loans in the banking system, with slower growth, a weak European market for exports, and a stimulus that is about one eighth the size in annual investment- one trillion yuan over 4 years in the current stimulus compared to 4 trillion over 2009-2010 in the last stimulus plan. Can China manage this bubble, does it have the experience managing this type of problem or has it papered over the problems as Spain did? This has repercussions for industries and countries from the export sector in Germany, Australia and Brazil to industries such as the German automobile industry, and companies such as Caterpillar.
Linked Articles
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
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