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Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
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Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, and organizer behind American Crossroads political action committee, says the election will be decided by the higher support for Romney among independents and the high turnout of Republican voters. The prediction for the voter turnout among Republicans is 36% Republican vs. 35% Democratic, according to Gallup. This compares with the 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004, and 39% Democratic 29% Republican in 2008. The early and absente ballot voting advantage has significantly gone down almost by half for Democrats as more Republicans cast early votes in swing states like Ohio. Closing statements and crowds also appear to confirm this trend. Rove sees this as 51% to 48% favoring the Republicans. The addition of swing states - Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania also appears to suggest that a broader movement is underway that is happening right now in the final week before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Rove focusses on the numbers. A behavioural assessment shows the importance in this campaign of the centrist position adopted by Romney in the closing months of the campaign; the selection of Ryan which gave Romney support from the Republican conservative base so that he could talk freely about his record in the liberal state of Massachusetts to independent voters and women, and most important the clear message to voters focussed on a five point plan to get the economy recovery were critical in shaping these numbers.
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The figures tell the story- Romney gets 91% of his support from white voters. He is ahead by 23% over Obama among white voters- a Washington Post /ABC News poll showing Romney at 60% and Obama at 37% in the last week of Oct. 2012. Obama's support from white voters is dropping to the level in the Mondale-Reagan election when Mondale was in the 30's -Reagan 65% Mondale 35% among white voters in the 1980 election. Obama's victory in 2008 came from winning 43% of the white vote. Whites made up 74% of voters in ABC polling in 2008- the same number as in 2012. About a 2% shift towards Hispanics and other minorities is expected every 4 years according to experts as U.S. population becomes more diverse. The suburban women with college degrees with strong views about contraception and women's issues were a factor in helping build core support for the Democratic party and Obama to get to the 43%. Another factor is the younger women without college degrees who are now shifting towards Romney and the Republicans over economic issues. Surpprisingly after the foreclosures and high jobless rates hit minorities hardest support has still not fallen for Obama with these groups in polling results.
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Linked Articles
Henninger: Romney's Secret Voting Bloc
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
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