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Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
The making of foreign policy in the Obama presidency- Barack Obama and Dennis McDonough
01/13/2016
Linked Articles
Washington Post 01/13/2016
Denis McDonough, the president’s chief of snooze - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/13/2016
China and India at the Paris climate change talks
12/09/2015
Linked Articles
As U.S. and Europe Pass the Hat at Climate Talks, China Clings to Developing-Nation Status
New York Times 12/09/2015
For Indians, Smog and Poverty Are Higher Priorities Than Talks in ParisNew York Times 12/09/2015
Bringing a new openness to leadership at the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016- Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin
10/30/2015
Linked Articles
Paul Ryan Brings Sharply Different Leadership Style to House
New York Times 12/07/2015
Paul Ryan is right about the House being broken. But he probably can’t fix it. - The Washington PostWashington Post 10/30/2015
Jeremy Corbyn and the proposal in 2015 for a National Investment Bank in Britain to make investments in education, health services and infrastructure
09/11/2015
A new leader of the Labor Party in Britain proposes a National Investment Bank. Some of the funding would come from an estimated 20 billion pounds of tax debt, 20 billion pounds in tax evasion, and 80 billion pounds in tax avoidance, according to experts in the Labor Party. Corbyn says he would reverse the introduction of fees for university education by previous Labor governments and has publicly apologized for the fees. The fees plan would cost about 7.1 billion pounds and be paid for by a 2.5% increase in the corporate tax, slower deficit reduction or increase in the insurance tax, says Corbyn. Germany continues to provide free university education.
Linked Articles
Leftist Jeremy Corbyn elected leader of Britain’s Labour Party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/12/2015
Jeremy Corbyn, Unlikely Front-Runner for Labour Leader, Poised to Win Party VoteNew York Times 09/11/2015
China's efforts to transition to a new model for development in 2016-2017, based on consumers and not on heavy state spending
08/25/2015
Xi-Jinping and Li Keqiang face a challenge and choices not unlike the one facing Deng Xiaoping in the 1980's- now the challenge is how to move China beyond the middle income status it has achieved with all its accompanying problems of environmental destruction, corruption and aging population.
Linked Articles
Economist 01/23/2016
Political Risks May Foil Economic Reform in ChinaNew York Times 08/25/2015
The new multiyear program proposed by Germany and France to replace the June 2 proposal, following the Greece July 5, 2015 referendum, which sets more reforms
07/07/2015
Linked Articles
Merkel’s German Critics Say Greek Bailout Was Doomed From Start
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2015
Eurozone Sets Sunday Deadline for Greece Financing DealWall Street Journal 07/07/2015
Ukraine and the Minsk 2 agreement of Feb. 2015- (1) the U.S. and Russian views on implementation by June 2015
06/06/2015
Linked Articles
Putin Urges Western Pressure on Ukraine in Peace Effort
New York Times 06/06/2015
Defense Chief: Subversion, ‘Big Lie’ Are in Russia’s ArsenalWall Street Journal 06/06/2015
Lack of individual accountability for banks in legal settlements with regulators- (2) the old management still in place, " a solution to the problem or part of it?"
05/24/2015
The question put by Mr. Han Martin-Buhlmann of shareholder association VIP at the June shareholder meeting of Deutsche Bank was- "Mr. Jain are a solution to the problem or part of it?" Over a week later a new CEO was appointed.
Linked Articles
Economist 06/13/2015
Shareholders’ Rebuke Pressures Deutsche Bank CEOs to PerformWall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020
05/14/2015
With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.
Linked Articles
Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change
New York Times 06/05/2015
Indian Prime Minister Prods Coal MonopolyWall Street Journal 05/14/2015
How the NASDAQ in 2015 has changed since 2000, and the change in the interest rate environment and inflation- critical factors in the new investment environment of 2015
04/24/2015
Linked Articles
Why This Old Bull Market May Not Be Ready to Die
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2015
The New Nasdaq Record, Set By a New NasdaqWall Street Journal 04/24/2015
Japan's fighter pilot Harada's message of "never to forget," the new generation of leaders, and a public unaware of the horrors of war
04/03/2015
Harada and Noonan describe the problem today of a generation of leaders and public that were born following the Second World War, who have no knowledge of the horrors and the pain of that war. He has tried to keep the memory of that conflict and the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, by teaching Japanese children in a kindergarden so that a new generation does not forget.
Linked Articles
Retired Japanese Fighter Pilot Sees an Old Danger on the Horizon
New York Times 04/03/2015
Misplaying America’s Hand With IranWall Street Journal 04/04/2015
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and Russia's response to the collapse in oil prices that helped avoid effects on the economy
02/09/2015
Exceptional performance by an exceptional economy minister and banker. Elvira Nabiullina's humility, drive and policies help shape Russia's careful management of the collapse in oil prices.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
How Argentina's new government of Mauricio Macri achieved the difficult negotiation and final settlement of $9.3 billion with U.S. hedge funds
03/03/2016
Linked Articles
How Argentina Settled a Billion-Dollar Debt Dispute With Hedge Funds
New York Times 04/25/2016
After 15 Years, a Bond Trade Now Pays OffWall Street Journal 03/03/2016
The resilience of U.S. auto sales in 2015-2016- new management, technological advances and pent up demand
01/06/2016
The U.S. automobile market and its resilience is one factor in the improving economy in 2016. New management and technology provide a resilience for automakers that never existed before.
Linked Articles
U.S. Car Sales Set Record in 2015
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2016
U.S. car sales hit record high in 2015 - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/06/2016
Faces from China's one child policy- "the loneliest generation"
11/11/2015
Linked Articles
End of China’s One-Child Policy Stings Its ‘Loneliest Generation’
New York Times 11/13/2015
As China drops one-child rule, joy for some, agonizing choices for others - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/11/2015
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
The difficult dynamic between eurozone negotiator Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem and Greece's negotiator Varoufakis that led to the collapse of talks on June 25, 2015- leading to the referendum and the Third Bailout program
07/02/2015
Linked Articles
Hopeful Start to Greek Debt Negotiations Quickly Soured
New York Times 07/02/2015
Eurozone Finance Chief Recounts Brinkmanship That Led to Greek DealWall Street Journal 07/17/2015
Restoring Deutsche Bank's image in Germany in 2015- (1) the new management
05/24/2015
Linked Articles
Shareholders’ Rebuke Pressures Deutsche Bank CEOs to Perform
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Deutsche Bank Co-Chief Executives ResignNew York Times 06/07/2015
Economic changes in the first year of the Modi administration in India- groundwork for 2016-2018
05/23/2015
Linked Articles
Economist 05/23/2015
How to run a continentEconomist 05/23/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
04/17/2015
The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.
Linked Articles
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic DiscordWall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Ukraine and the Minsk 2 agreement of Feb. 2015- (2) German and Italian views on implementation by June 2015
02/11/2015
Linked Articles
Hardening of Positions Undercuts Ukraine Peace Accord
New York Times 06/04/2015
In Ukraine, It’s Putin’s GameNew York Times 02/11/2015
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