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Fuller cites the WSJ about the 40% of the 1.4 million jobs created in the first half of 2014 being in the lower wage retail, food service and temporary help sectors. The 6.1% unemployment rate does not count the people who are too discouraged to look for work, these people dropping out of the statistic just as much as the people who have found work. The U-6 which includes those who work part time because they cannot find full time work and people discouraged and stopped looking for work is at 12.6% in March 2014, giving a more accurate reading of the unemployment situation in the U.S. for 2014.

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Oil prices drop below $38 by mid-December 2015, as the Saudis continue to push prices down further by continuing production increases. No change is planned for 2016 and analysts expect low oil prices into 2016. At $38 a barrel it becomes uneconomical for most shale oil producers to operate in the U.S. About 50,000 jobs are lost in Texas and 250,000 jobs worldwide. This is a boost for large oil importers such as India, Japan, and Europe. China also stands to benefit from low oil prices. Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Russia have the most to lose from an extended period of low oil prices. Politics in the Middle East also may play a part in decisions as the Saudis oppose intervention in Syria and Iraq by Russia and Iran. Rising shale oil production in the U.S. could also be one of the additional targets of Saudi policy. One consequence is that OPEC is divided with the Saudis going their own way.

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Forecasts show global oil output exceeding demand by 630,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter of 2012. This is partly the result of extra oil supplies coming in from Saudi Arabia to counter the situation with Iran at the same time as oil demand is slowing with the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China. Prices of crude declined to $85.73 a barrel on the Nymex, and $107.85 for Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange on Oct. 24, 2012. Goldman Sachs cut the 2013 price forecast for Brent crude to $110 a barrel from $130. Earlier the QE III monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve had rallied oil prices because of a weakening of the dollar.

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Unemployment in Fort Wayne, Indiana, is 6.8%, and 14,600 workers are looking for a job. Peters and Wessel talk to employers in this midwestern U.S. city and find that employers are looking for people in manufacturing with just the right set of skills, in other cases the benefits and parttime local school system jobs paying $8-$12 per hour with no benefits go unfilled because of the lower wage.

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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Bilateral trade between China and Russia is down 31% for the first half of 2015, and Chinese investment in Russia down by 20%, according to Moscow Carnegie Center. This is a result of the fall in oil prices, declining demand for commodities in China, and the economic downturn in Russia. After the western sanctions on Russia Chinese investors are cautious about making investments. This means Russia's large expectations that this would act as an offset for economic relations with Germany and other western nations is not working out in reality. The contract for the second gas deal for gas from western Siberia, for which a memorandum was signed with China in Nov. 2014, was not signed during Putin's visit to Beijing in September 2015. Experts say the economic environment is not favorable for gas deals with the uncertain economic outlook in China.

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The U.S. has 22 states that offer some form of work sharing programs to reduce layoffs by having workers work for shorter hours and receive partial unemployment insurance. This is a variation of the "kurzarbeit" programs that have helped Germany reduce layoffs during 2009 and during the period of high unemployment in Germany following the reunification of the country. Worksharing has major benefits in high tech and manufacturing industries where it is difficult to replace employees when the downturn is over and demand picks up. For the economy as a whole it reduces the stress of higher unemployment from cyclical swings in the economy.

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JP Morgan CEO Dimon, says the lack of enough worker training is hurting the U.S. with unemployment one or two percentage points because of this. The lack of enough training efforts by business and government to add technical skills to workers existing skills is resulting in many jobs going unfilled in manufacturing and other fields.

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The Harz labor reforms in Germany in 2003 changed the way unemployment was treated. The idea was to get the government to work more closely with private employers through several initiatives to fund jobs that did constructive work within these companies. This helped reduce structural unemployment because of the almost indefinite unemployment benefits that existed earlier, reducing it from 12.7% in 2005 to 7.1% in November 2008. In November 2009 even after a year of recesion it stands at 8.6%. Are there lessons for other countries in the German experience? THe Harz reforms directed the German Labor Agency to work closely with private employers to fund newly created jobs. One such program paid a Dutch staffing agency Randstad to teach 15,000 Germans information technology, business English an other skills. THe Labor agency funds jobs at a Daimler truck facility in Worth, near Stuttgart, where short term employees instead of being laid off work as mechanic trainees. Another initiative pays parts of the wages of workers hired from those who are jobless, so that the costs of retraining are shared by the government and the employer, making it more attractive to take a chance and go out and hire. And if you lose your job the Harz reforms made it possible to get unemployment benefits for an additional 6 months, if you went out and started a small business. Like the case of an employee who worked at a Kawasaki motorbicycle dealership, who started his own bike repair shop. There are political pressures to extend unemployment benefits as the recesssion becomes more severe. And the structural mismatch in jobs going unfilled, and the number turned out by universities is still a problem. One study by Adecco Institute, shows 29% of large German companies having trouble filling technical jobs, which is why these companies try to keep all their experienced employees....

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India's inflation rate declined to 4.4% in Nov. 2014 and 5% in Dec. 2014. Price pressures are moderating throughout the economy. With lower oil prices in 2015 and long term trend for lower prices the outlook has improved for controlling inflation. The central bank governor Rajan cut rates by one quarter of a percentage point in Jan. 2015 and indicated further rate cuts are ahead to boost economic growth. The financial markets reflect a 1% decline in interest rates and the stock markets were up 2% in Jan. 2015

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The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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What is the educational system Toyota is relying on as it faces a huge problem stemming from its high growth rate of new employees overseas who have little knowledge of the Toyota Way and the Toyota Production System. Another part of the same problemis that as it ages many of the last generation of Toyota executives who were there from the inception of Toyota's early days in the USA and the early days of the extraordinary growth in the 80's and 90's will now be retiring or in their seventies and eighties. All this is happening as the American Big Three and the German manufacturers are getting new blood and going through a process of renewal, and the Americans especially are seeing themselves as the underdogs coming from behind. So Toyota's concerns can be seen in a new light, any complacency on its part is going to be costly in the long run. Toyota is using the Toyoa Institute in rural Mikkabi, Japan for training its senior executives like Randy Pflughaupt, chief of US marketing for the Toyota brand. Watanabe, presidetn, Fujio Cho chairman, and Akio Toyoda of the Toyota family personally teach there and share their personal experiences. Toyota asks executives there to come up with a problem Toyota faces and come up with a proposed solution all on one 11 by 17 sheet of paper. Hands on on the ground on site fact finding and exploration are stressed. A management school Globis in Japan instructs Toyota's middle management inthe Toyota philosophy including quality control philosophy methods such as asking the 5 Why's, why a problem is ocurring until one reaches 5 or 6 levels of answers. Global centers in USA Europe and Asia have been opened by Toyota to train roving experts who can help increase the numbers of roving experts from todays 2000 mostly at this time from Japan. These roving experts teach older employees as well as coach younger ones. Then there are the Toyota Technical Training Institutes. The one in Bangalore for example offers an intensive program for new hires to teach Toyota's basic principles. The one in Bangalore has 21 teachers. And appicants selection is tight in India just 64 out of 5000. Before working on the assembly line the applicants will spend 2 years in classes in technical training, including discipline and personal grooming. Its interesting that the applicant mentioned here was from a village where his family and friends were especially proud of his Toyota uniform and training. The idea may be to avoid the problems of trade unionism, worker feeling of entitlement and worker rights which has led to the problems in the US and in India of workers not willing to learn new things being open to new ideas. One way would be to avoid entirely areas where there has been trade union influence, history and activity such as rural Kentucky or rural Karnataka. The student Harish Hanumantayappa is 17 years old and sees this as an opportunity that was not even in his imagination, which makes for a highly enthusiastic trainee, just the kind Toyota may be looking for away from India's trade union and worker indiscipline environments in some states and regions. Reflecting on this one can note that its natural for Toyota to respond in this fashion and it may extend the period in which the Toyota Production System and the Toyota Way functions effectively. But companies like HP also had what they called the HP Way but eventually this suffered a decline as new managers and leadership came into the picture. Only now is HP recovering and getting back its step under a manager who spent his training years at NCR not a training ground for managers, but may have been chosen for his good management instincts and performance and personal characteristics. Also many of the tenets such as asking 5 Why's and the Toyota Production System except for the Just In Time Innovation are basic quality control philsophy that is practiced all over Japanese industry and is practiced worldwide and originated in quality control philosophy in the United States in the 1920's and 1930's before declining and then coming back in the 1980's with Deming and Juran two American quality control advocates. So there is a pattern of decline as new managers forget old ideas and its not clear if Toyota can overcome this tendency completely, except to sustain the memory of what Toyota is and how they got here for as long as possible for a new generation of managers. And the risks to Toyota may also come from another direction to which Toyota may not pay as much attention which is the innovation that Americans are known for, and the innovative thinking mode is a bit different from the rigorous training of the total quality mode. ction ...

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Experts at the East-West Center in Honolulu, say China will add about 55 million barrels to its strategic reserves in 2012, which is another factor that will keep oil prices high in 2012. A number of new storage locations are coming on stream to store the additional reserves. China imported 5.57 millon barrels a day in March 2012, an increase of 8.7% from the prior year month. Oil imports for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased by 11% over the prior year quarter, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This is a much faster pace than imports in 2011, which increased by 6%. China is building its strategic reserves to reach a goal of 90 days supply similiar to the U.S. strategic reserves. Lu Tienan, director of China's National Energy Administration, said at a conference in the first week of April that current total oil stocks, including strategic and commercial are enough for 40 days. It is doing this in the face of higher oil prices, because of the threat of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program could lead to a cutoff of Iranian supplies. China's oil imports from Iran were 11% of total imports in 2011, making this an urgent priority for China. Estimates of the East-West Center are for crude oil imports at an average of 5.77 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 13% over 2011. International Energy Agency estimates are for China's total oil demand for 2012 to be 9.9 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 6% over 2011....

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The commodities boom allowed Brazil under president Lula to commit to heavy state spending, subisidies, protection of favored sectors with large tariffs, that led to inefficiency and high debt. The policies continued under president Rousseff. Corruption scandals in the latter part of the Lula administration led to more populist policies for the Workers Party to stay in power, says Porter. Compared to Mexico and Chile, Brazil and Argentina under presidents Lula and Kirchner moved in the direction to closing up their economies to trade and foreign investment that would make corporate sectors more competitive and less dependent on the state for subsidies and favors. Mexico's economy other than the automobile sector is struggling, as mismanagement also plays a part as with the handling of Pemex and huge capital injections needed. Mindfulness and thoughtfulness is needed in setting policy direction, aware of the risks free of illusions about rosy scenarios, knowing that ideology plays less of a part than exercizing good judgement....

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Mouhanad Khorchide, is professor of Islamic pedagogy at the University of Munster in Germany. He is offering an innovative approach to teach a gentler and more tolerant Islam as Germany shifts to the teaching of Islam in primary and secondary schools, alongside teaching of the Christian and Jewish faiths. He is the author of the book published in Arabic and as an e-book in English- "Islam in Mercy." He goes back to the open discourse in the Islam of the eight and ninth centuries for ideas, asking questions and seeing this as part of the discourse in the educational process. He is a Palestinian who studied sociology at the University of Vienna. Germany has 4 million Muslims.

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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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By May 2015 the Russsian ruble had recovered to 50 to the dollar from the low of 80 to the dollar in 2014. In August 2015 the ruble declined to 70 to the dollar as oil prices dropped below $40 per barrel. GDP growth showed a decline of 4.6% for the economy in the 2nd quarter of 2015. The ruble has lost close to 50% of its value in 2015 compared to the prior year.

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Brazil's economy is forecast to contract by 2% in 2015, the currency has lost about one third its value and the stock market is down 22% in the last year. This follows the decline in demand for Brazil's commodities exports as China growth slows down. Experts say Brazil is now seeing another boom bust cycle similiar to boom-bust cycles in the past, such as the 1966-73 boom followed by years of hyperinflation and stagnation. Brazil's exports to China declined 17% in the first 7 months of 2015. The crisis is in many ways similiar to crises in other emerging markets dependent on commodities exports. The resources boom leads to overvaluation of the currency, and decline in development of manufacturing away from dependence on commodities exports. Other errors rise from complacency and politics prevalent in such periods. These errors include mismanagement of resources with poor resource allocation decisions such as spending on soccer stadiums in cities in the northeast while basic bus services remained underfinanced in large urban areas, large overspending by the government using state owned bank BNDES to offer rates at below market rates, a credit fueled boom and credit card binge for households, and a reversal of capital flows from the U.S. and Europe with the sharp decline in investment climate. There is a severe loss of confidence in the government of Dilma Rousseff with her approval rating as low as 8%. Corruption scandals at Petrobras show close links between the Workers Party of Rousseff and executives, with about $2 billion in misused funds. Brazil, like other emerging markets such as Russia and India, have taken some lessons from the 1997 financial crisis by setting aside large foreign exchange reserves for a crisis. Brazil's reserves of $397 billion help it cushion the effects with funding of the safety net and support to industries to avoid large layoffs. Other problems not tackled as in Mexico, India, and other emerging markets, are the weak educational system, and poor infrastructure, that create bottlenecks for growth. Brazil could face a lost decade after the debt overhang, decline in foreign investment and commodity export generated revenues. ...