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Jobless Scars Will Outlast the Recession
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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this.
The shift to part-time workers, lower incomes and the U.S. unemployment rate- 2008 -2014
03/08/2008
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Unemployment and partime unemployment in the U.S. economy 2008 and beyond.
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How unemployment is shaping up and how the underutilization rate and partime employment is changing the picture of employment in the USA.
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The April 2009 G-20 Docklands, London Summit and the constructive confrontation between American and European positions.
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The positions of both sides. The Europeans credibly calling for global regulations as non-negotiable, and the US credibly calling for larger stimulus spending now when it would have the greatest impact. And the tough negotiations ahead.
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Unemployment in Europe, Japan and the USA. Stimulus measures in the U.S. and safety nets in Japan and Europe: 2008-2010
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How safety nets in Japan and Europe do what the stimulus helps to do in the USA. Coping with high unemployment.
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Fast structural shift from banking, autos and retail to health care, energy, government and education in the USA, makes equally rapid government assisted retraining and cost sharing enormously critical.
01/28/2009
Retraining will be critical to shift workers from downsizing to upsizing industries and fields of work. The danger is that a growing mismatch in qualifications and lack of a crisis mode in retraining efforts will leave large numbers of people permanently unemployed. The shift is ocurring with lightining speed. Would government sharing the initail cost of hiring and retrainng workers help as in the German example and the Harz reforms. See link.
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Jobless Scars Will Outlast the Recession
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Rising U.S. Foreclosures take on crisis proportions deepening the economic downturn.
08/24/2007
Foreclosures in 2008 hit 16% up from 6% in 2007, and in an accelerating trend if unemployment hits new highs.
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Rising Unemployment in the U.S. in 2009.
01/31/2009
The number of people on unemployment benefits hit 5.56 million on March 14, according to the Labor Department, with 662,000 new claims filed since then.
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Failure to stem foreclosures under the Obama administration continues inaction under Bush administration.
08/24/2007
The failure of the Obama administration to break the cycle of foreclosures begetting falling house prices begetting more foreclosures, further weakening the banks and the economy, with strong action. It continues the missteps of the Bush period and may undo much of the good work in other areas such as stimulus, restructuring the auto industry and new priorities. Inaction here is coupled with inaction in relation to insolvent banks and is likely to prove costly.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 07/17/2011
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
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The new GM and the problems it will continue to face.
02/13/2006
GM faces intense competition in a shrinking market. And building appeal to younger demographics customers is critical to GM.
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Skeptics Present Another Obstacle for GM
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Auto-Industry Crisis Tests Obama
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The labor underutillizzation rate may hit 10% in 2010. This is the number to watch because of deepseated changes in the labor markets.
03/09/2009
This raises a number of questions about the economic recovery and calls for new initiatives in retraining and government assistance for companies to hire and retrain.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Jobless Scars Will Outlast the Recession
Wall Street Journal 03/09/2009
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