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Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
The Trump U.S. Republican presidential campaign and the deterioration in the political discourse in the U.S. in 2015-2016
01/27/2016
Linked Articles
Trump’s toxic temperament should disqualify him from the presidency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/29/2016
A Myopic Shift Toward TrumpWall Street Journal 01/27/2016
Donald Trump's Style Book and the campaign for the 2016 U.S. Republican primaries
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Behind Donald Trump’s Attack Strategy
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Trump Laid Out His Playbook 30 Years AgoWall Street Journal 01/25/2016
The U.S. presidential election campaign in 2016- the Republican primaries and the contest between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz tapping into anger at the grassroots
01/15/2016
Linked Articles
Republican Debate Defined by Trump-Cruz Clash
Wall Street Journal 01/15/2016
The Take: Can Donald Trump actually be the Republican nominee? - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/15/2016
The weakness in Trump's candidacy and the upsurge for Ted Cruz before the Iowa Republican primary
12/10/2015
Linked Articles
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee
Wall Street Journal 12/10/2015
As Ted Cruz Rises in Polls, He Is Banking on the SouthWall Street Journal 12/10/2015
The problems threatening the white working class in America and the rise of cultural illiberalism
11/12/2015
Experts point to the economic anxieties of the white working class in America, a broad group that has increasingly fallen behind as technology advances in the 21st century with globalization and mobile capital, causing serious social fissures in society. One of the dangers is to the ideas of liberal society itself with the rise of cultural illiberalism, such as that presented by the Trump candidacy for president in 2016, and Marie Le Pen's National Front in France, as liberal elites in centre right and centre left lose their hold on working class voters.
Linked Articles
The Bleak Reality Driving Trump’s Rise
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
The missing working class - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/12/2015
The failure of the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia to take in refugees from war torn Syria and other parts of North Africa- 1500 for U.S. , 166 for UK, 800,000 for Germany
09/04/2015
Ignatieff of the Kennedy School and Kristof of the NYT say the inaction of Obama, Cameron, Harper and Abbott, is deplorable considering the gap between the 800,000 Merkel and the German people have openly welcomed and the 1500 the U.S. has accepted, and 166 the UK has taken in. There is hardly any mention of the issue by the leaders of the U.S. and Canada in September 2015, even as the global media has covered this daily. In Hungary the Orban government faile to remember the Hungarian uprising of 1956 and the violent crackdown by the Soviets, leading to a wave of refugees reaching other parts of Europe and the U.S.
Linked Articles
New York Times 09/04/2015
The Refugee Crisis Isn’t a ‘European Problem’New York Times 09/05/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Carly Fiorina's record at Lucent Technologies and HP and the Trump comment of it being "not a good picture"
08/17/2015
Linked Articles
The Influence of Fiorina at Lucent, in Hindsight
New York Times 09/21/2015
Carly Fiorina’s Business Record: Not So SterlingNew York Times 08/17/2015
Trump's casinos and Griffin's Citadel hedge fund- risky financial investments and path from collapse to recovery
08/04/2015
WSJ reporters Grant and Berzon on Trump, and Copeland on Ken Griffin of the Citadel hedge fund provide an inside look at the financial dealings and maneouvring of Trump, the huge risk and leverage taken on at Citadel by Griffin. In doing so they provide insights into the manner of operating and personality of the two businessmen.
Linked Articles
Trump and His Debts: A Narrow Escape
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2016
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Leaves 2008 Tumble Far BehindWall Street Journal 08/04/2015
The women's vote in 2016 U.S. presidential election and the antiincumbency mood of 2016- risks for Clinton running a cautious campaign and big risks for Trump
06/11/2015
Hillary Clinton needs a vigorous campaign away from the cautious instincts of the early days of her campaign, as Trump seeks to deflect criticism by attacking Hillary Clinton, say experts. The risks are high for Trump if the effort backfires alienating the vast majority of women, including Sanders supporters, independents and traditional Republican moderates. This is one of the wild twists of the campoaign of 2016- a candidate apparently making sexist comments to attract the support of white women voter- and men.
Linked Articles
Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Donald Trump’s Gender-Based Attacks on Hillary Clinton Have Calculated RiskNew York Times 04/28/2016
China's debt at over 250% of GDP and the financial crisis in 2015- Harvard Prof. Rogoff and former Treasury Secretary Paulson on the reckoning with debt issues
04/20/2015
Linked Articles
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
A Veteran of the Financial Crisis Tells China to Be WaryNew York Times 04/20/2015
The puzzle of U.S. job gains in 2014-2015 with tepid wage gains- a result of labor market slack not reflected in 5.5% unemployment rate, low productivity, low investment
03/07/2015
Linked Articles
Sluggish Productivity Hampers Wage Gains
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Brisk Jobs Growth Puts Focus on FedWall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Resilence of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (1) the decision to let the ruble float in Nov. 2014
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
The Donald Trump campaign for U.S. president in 2016- strategies from "The Art of the Deal"
02/25/2016
Thinking big embracing the entire electorate, using social media to the fullest, improvising often based on voter sentiment, commonsense approaches, worked for Trump in the Republican primaries in 2016. The failure of the other candidates to address issues of voter frustration, and splitting of the vote with many candidates, created the opportunity for Trump to succeed with his unconventional campaigning style coupled with a careful attention to what troubled voters.
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Campaign Blueprint: His Own Book
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2016
Trump and the Also-RansWall Street Journal 02/25/2016
A Donald Trump rally in March 2016, Pensacola and Orlando, Florida- anti-establishment politics and the white working class voter
01/27/2016
Linked Articles
Anxiety Fuels Donald Trump’s Supporters
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2016
What His Believers See in Donald TrumpWall Street Journal 03/09/2016
The U.S. manufacturing sector and the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement- U.S. manufacturing job losses and why leading candidates Clinton, Sanders, Trump and Cruz oppose it
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Trans-Pacific Trade Pact Would Lift U.S. Incomes, but Not Jobs Overall, Study Says
New York Times 01/25/2016
What’s Our Duty to the People Globalization Leaves Behind?New York Times 01/26/2016
U.S. presidential candidate Ted Cruz's organizational effort for the Iowa caucuses in Jan. 2016, and a different voter rally based campaign run by Donald Trump
12/14/2015
Linked Articles
Ted Cruz Counters Donald Trump With Targeted Approach in Iowa
New York Times 01/30/2016
Cruz campaign credits psychological data and analytics for its rising success - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/14/2015
Donald Trump's proposed ban on Muslims entering the U.S. "till we know what is going on," following the Sn Bernardino terrorist attack in Dec. 2015
12/08/2015
Linked Articles
Donald Trump Calls for Ban on Muslim Entry Into U.S.
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2015
Along with Trump’s rhetoric, the stakes for 2016 have risen dramatically - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/09/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Faces in China as a period of austerity begins in China in large and smaller urban areas with the slowing economy and debt crisis in August 2015
08/28/2015
Linked Articles
Consumer Anxiety in China Undermines Government’s Economic Plans
New York Times 08/28/2015
Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese EconomyNew York Times 08/28/2015
Issues of debt reduction for Puerto Rico and Ukraine- Franklin Templeton Fund, other funds with investments and differing perceptions of the issues
08/13/2015
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2015
What the United States Owes Puerto RicoWall Street Journal 08/14/2015
Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece
07/06/2015
Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.
Linked Articles
IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
How to Undo the Damage in GreeceNew York Times 07/06/2015
Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020
05/14/2015
With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.
Linked Articles
Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change
New York Times 06/05/2015
Indian Prime Minister Prods Coal MonopolyWall Street Journal 05/14/2015
Brazil's debt crisis and economic slump in 2015-2016
04/03/2015
Linked Articles
Brazil’s coming recession: The crash of a titan
Economist 04/05/2015
Teetering on Junk, Petrobras Intrigues High-Yield InvestorsWall Street Journal 04/03/2015
The response of financial markets to Russian intervention in Ukraine 2014-2015, as arms aid to Ukraine is seen as not a good option
02/11/2015
Linked Articles
New York Times 02/11/2015
Stopping Putin Without Firing a ShotWall Street Journal 02/11/2015
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