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Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research and estimates of bad loans in China's banking system in September 2015
08/22/2013
Linked Articles
Overheard: One ‘Best-Case’ Scenario for China’s Banks Is Pretty Bad
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt AnalysisWall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Russia's central banker Elvira Nabiullina, the ruble and central bank policies
03/12/2013
A central banker, former economy minister, who led Russia's changes for entry into the World Trade Organization, and policies to stabilize the ruble and Russia's economy during the emerging markets crisis of 2014.
Linked Articles
Putin Taps Pro-Market Economist as Banker
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble SlideWall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Greece and living up to euro currency responsibilities- efforts under Papadopoulos 2002, Giannitsis 2001, Manos 1998 and Tsipras's commitment in 2015 15
01/28/2013
Can Greece live up to its euro currency responsibilities, is the question raised inside the eurozone, as Greece renews its commitment to reforms to build a modern economy. A look back at politicians who emphasized euro currency responsibilities and the candid remarks by Tsipras in an intervew with Bret Stephens of the WSJ.
Linked Articles
The Politicians Who Warned Greece—but Were Ignored
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2015
Stephens: The Conscience of a RadicalWall Street Journal 01/28/2013
The Swiss central bank's effort to keep Swiss Franc at 1.20 to the dollar and Japan's Abe government's push for the yen at 90 to the dollar
12/25/2012
A determined effort by the Swiss National Bank to preserve export competitiveness as eurozone economies contract in 2013, by printing francs and buying up euros and foreign assets. The effort is designed to counteract declining wages and prices in Switzerland. The newly elected Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe supports aggressive action by Japan's central bank to keep the yen between 85 yen and 90 yen to the U.S. dollar.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/25/2012
Button-Down Central Bank Bets It AllWall Street Journal 01/09/2013
Ben Bernanke of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's Shirakawa- contrasting approaches to communicating monetary policy
12/13/2012
Linked Articles
A Federal Reserve That Is Focused on the Value of Clarity
New York Times 12/13/2012
Vote Challenges Japan's Central BankWall Street Journal 12/13/2012
CEO Sergio Ermotti shifts Swiss bank UBS away from investment banking- 2012-2014
10/28/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
UBS to Cut 10,000 Staff in OverhaulWall Street Journal 10/28/2012
The EU debate between France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel before and during the EU's Oct. 2012 meeting
10/17/2012
The issue was direct aid to Spanish banks and the early setup of an EU banking supervisor so that Spain could get early debt relief as its economy struggles with high unemployment of over 25%. Chancellor Merkel turned down direct aid to Spanish banks, and partly relented on banking supervision by agreeing to have the legislation completed by Jan 2013 and the actual setup of the supervision authority during the course of 2013, probably after elections in Germany in Sept. 2013.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Hollande fires warning shot at Merkel over austerity on eve of EU summit | World news | guardian.co.ukThe Guardian 10/17/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
David Walker, the new chairman of Barclays Bank in 2012- the man to set Britain's banking on the right path
08/09/2012
Linked Articles
A True Brit Is the Choice by Barclays
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2012
Barclays New Chairman’s on What a Chairman Should BeWall Street Journal 08/09/2012
Canada's DBRS, a little known credit ratings firm that made a large difference for the credit ratings of Italy and Spain
08/09/2012
Canada's DBRS put less weight on the political shifts in Italy and more on the low growth rate. It rated Italy A (low) in November 2013, much higher than the ratings given by Moody's and S&P. This was important in the eurozone crisis because the European Central Bank uses the highest rating on a sovereign country's bonds to decide discounts on collateral pledged by banks to the ECB. DBRS has more faith in the lasting value of the euro and sees through the ups and downs of the crisis. It takes a similiar upbeat long term view of Spain. DBRS has credibility because it did not move ratings up as much before the 2008 financial crisis, and did not move the ratings down as much during the crisis, as the large credit ratings firms.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/09/2012
The Key to Italy's Rating Is Kept in CanadaWall Street Journal 11/02/2013
The Bank of England and oversight over Libor rates
07/20/2012
Linked Articles
Libor Case Documents Show Timid Regulators
New York Times 07/20/2012
Bank of England Repelled Tougher Libor OversightWall Street Journal 07/22/2012
The slow response of Spain compared to the more aggressive aproach of France
07/18/2012
The contrast between Spain's lack of strong and quick action for its banking problems and France's aggressive approach to its debt problem. Spain's problems come from the housing bubble and bad loans in parts of the banking sector especially the cajas savings banks. The lack of strong and early action by bank supervisors at the central bank and the government to cleanup the banks created conditions requiring a bailout. The problems in France which did not experience a housing bubble were the result of slow growth, rising debt and deficits. France took an aggressive approach to tackle these problems, with shared sacrifices, and setting a goal of bringing the deficit down to 3% in 2013 with its 2013 budget.
Linked Articles
France's New Budget Focuses on Cutting Deficit
New York Times 09/28/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
Treasury Secretary Geithner's LIBOR rate memo and the Bank of England
07/13/2012
Linked Articles
Geithner Memo Adds to Pressure on BOE
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2012
Geithner Wrote Libor Memo in 2008Wall Street Journal 07/14/2012
Japan increases wages to put behind it decade of deflation- the Bank of Japan target is for 2% inflation in 2014-2015
03/13/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/13/2014
Japan Unions Win Best Raises in YearsWall Street Journal 03/13/2013
Funding infrastructure needs in Asia and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
02/14/2013
Led by China, and with founding members India, S. Korea, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Italy, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is intended to provide much needed financing for infrastructure in Asia. Huge bottlenecks for development exist in Asia's developing countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, which can only be tackled through innovative methods of financing. China which has moved ahead in infrastructure development is providing the leadership for this bank. Experts say Europe is right to join, and the U.S. should have supported the idea at the early stage.
Linked Articles
Hostility From U.S. as China Lures Allies to New Bank
New York Times 03/19/2015
Hot Topic in Moscow Talks: How to Fund InfrastructureWall Street Journal 02/14/2013
Losses and management turnover at mining companies leading to scaling back of orders of mining equipment and Caterpillar performance
01/18/2013
Losses at Rio Tinto and Anglo-American with risky projects is leading to management turnover and a scaling back in investment. The lower commodity prices, declining growth in China and risk averse strategies in turn affects Caterpillar's growth in its key mining equipment business. Analysts do not expect the situation to improve till 2015.
Linked Articles
Caterpillar Chief Faults China Unit
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2013
Miner Rio Tinto Ousts CEO as Bad Bets Cost BillionsWall Street Journal 01/18/2013
Restoring Deutsche Bank's image in 2015- (2) the legal investigations in Germany
12/20/2012
Linked Articles
Image Remake Suffers Hit at Deutsche Bank
Wall Street Journal 12/20/2012
German Financial Watchdog Bites BackWall Street Journal 03/28/2014
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's activist interest rate policies to tackle high unemployment and central bankers from MIT
12/12/2012
A pragmatic activist focus in economic thinking shaped at the MIT economics department in Cambridge, Masachusetts. The ECB's Mario Draghi, Bank of England's Mervyn King, and Bernanke shaped their thinking at MIT. Draghi and Bernanke had the same PhD. advisor- Stanley Fischer. Factors calling for a pragmatic approach include the lack of political agreement on th deficit, the housing and foreclosure crisis effects, higher inequality and unemployment effects on the middle class, the effects of the globalized economy on working class manufacturing jobs, people dropping out of the labor foce, and lower inflation, which called for a larger focus on unemployment. Bernanke emphasized the "enormous waste in human potential and productive resources of the economy" throughout 2009-2012. Draghi emphasized the abnormal nature of excessive borrowing interest rates for Italy and Spain during the ECB's bond buying efforts in 2011-2012. Both efforts had a stabilizing effect on the economies of the U.S. and Europe during a period of political discord about future policy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
German chancellor Merkel and the EU plan for aid to Spain's banks in Oct. 2012
10/18/2012
Merkel turns down an effort pushed by France and Spain at the Oct. 2012 EU leaders meeting for direct aid to Spanish banks. Instead money has to go from the European Stability Mechanism fund to Spain after a request by Spain for aid. The aid request by Spain would be met under program of conditionality set by the IMF, EU and ECB. Spain is delaying a request for aid as borrowing rates on Spanish bonds declined to about 5% by late October 2012. The Rajoy government in Spain faces regional spending problems and separatis sentiment in addition to high unemployment and a worsening situation with its banks. Merkel faces elections for chancellor in Germany in Sept. 2013 and says more time is needed to setup the eurozone banking supervisory authority- to be set up in the course of 2013 with the legal setup completed by Jan 2013 as a concession to France. This would push banking supervision and financial architecture till after the election.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Europe Seeks a Spain StrategyWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
Mo Yan and Wang Xiaofang exposing corruption and arrogant government officials in China through fictional characters and humor
10/11/2012
Both writers use fictional characters to vent people's anger at arrogant officials from the government and party- this predates the communist regime and goes back to the days from the earlier part of the twentieth century down to the present day.
Linked Articles
The Deeply Odd Lives of Chinese Bureaucrats
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2013
Mo Yan Mines a Deep Well of Material in ChinaNew York Times 10/11/2012
U.S. bank lending not recovered by 2014 from the severe decline in lending in 2010-2012
09/27/2012
Linked Articles
Banks Wrestle With Lackluster Lending
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Need a Loan? Where Do You Live?Wall Street Journal 09/27/2012
The changes at Barclays Bank in 2012-2013
08/09/2012
Linked Articles
A Five Point Plan for Barclays
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2012
Barclays New Chairman’s on What a Chairman Should BeWall Street Journal 08/09/2012
Pathways to Europe- European Central Bank chief, Mario Draghi and the decisive leadership that points the way to a renewed Europe
07/26/2012
Linked Articles
Key Excerpts: Mario Draghi Says ECB ‘Ready to Do Whatever It Takes’
Wall Street Journal 07/26/2012
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for EuroWall Street Journal 10/02/2012
The problems facing Morgan Stanley
07/19/2012
Questions about its long term future as an independent investment banking firm.
Linked Articles
Morgan Stanley Profit Sinks on Revenue Declines
Wall Street Journal 07/20/2012
Morgan Stanley Plays Beat the ClockWall Street Journal 07/19/2012
Spain macroprudential supervision of its banking system once lauded now turns out to be "timid" and false, could the same be true for China?
07/18/2012
Spain's central bank had a reputation of providing good supervision for Spain's banking system. The problems at the Cajas Savings banks and the current assessment after the request for $125 billion in EU funds for Spain's banks shows how this turned out to be false. Does China face a similiar problem with its housing bubble. The U.S., UK and Spain, failed to control and manage the effects of a housing bubble, can China be a lone exception? Rapid growth enabled China to cope with bad loans in the banking system, with slower growth, a weak European market for exports, and a stimulus that is about one eighth the size in annual investment- one trillion yuan over 4 years in the current stimulus compared to 4 trillion over 2009-2010 in the last stimulus plan. Can China manage this bubble, does it have the experience managing this type of problem or has it papered over the problems as Spain did? This has repercussions for industries and countries from the export sector in Germany, Australia and Brazil to industries such as the German automobile industry, and companies such as Caterpillar.
Linked Articles
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
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