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The WSJ's Spencer Jakab points out the role of politics- with Saudi Arabia in a standoff with Iran and Russia in Middle Eastern conflicts- and Saudi policy of full output with no cuts unlikely to change, ensuring lower prices for 2016-2017.

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A Pew Center poll in Greece shows support for the Euro at 69% in 2013. The situation in Greece has improved in 2013 with the economy expected to decline by 4% in 2013 and return to growth in 2014. The current account deficit at 11% in 2008 is now close to zero. Unemployment is stabilizing and the competitiveness is being restored as labor costs per hour are down 30%, according to Alpha Bank. Ten year government bond yields are now below 8% in 2013, a dramatic improvement.

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Prime minister Abe of Japan and President Jinping of China meet for 25 minutes on the sidelines of the Asia Africa Summit in Indonesia, on April 21, 2015. In a sign of thawing in relations both sides take an active interest in improving relations. This is the 60th anniversary of the Bandung conference in Indonesia, and Japan restated its pledge during the 1955 meeting of Asian and African leaders to not use force in territorial disputes. Abe said he had "deep remorse" for Japan's role in World War II. Xi Jinping's speech covered China's effort to build the "Silk Road" infrastructure projects in Asia and Africa, and said the AIIB bank was seen positively by the international community. Jinping emphasized the joint responsibility of both countries for peaceful development and regional stability. Abe suggested that a communications system for emergencies be established between the two countries and a defense dialogue be setup.

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The OPEC meeting in Doha in April 2016 fails to lead to an agreement to freeze oil production at Jan. 2016 levels, with Iran staying away from the meeting.

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ECB president Draghi tells a Brookings Institution audience on Oct. 9, 2014 "for governments that have fiscal space, then of course it makes sense to use it," referring to Germany. IMF's Christine Lagarde is also calling on Germany to increase spending. The German statistics office says exports declined 5.8% in August from prior month. Mr. Draghi also emphasized that the survival of European governments depended on getting economic changes right- "if they don't do the right things, they will disappear forever because they will not be re-elected." Germany's respected economic institutes said in a joint statement that GDP growth in 2014 will be down from earlier forecast of 1.9% to 1.3%. In 2015 growth is forecast at 1.2%. For the 3rd quarter 2014 growth is zero and for the 4th quarter 2014 it is estimated at 0.1%. Economic contraction is not ruled out.

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This editorial in the WSJ says Obama's silence when it comes to the jailed opposition leader in Malaysia is one more silence when it comes to issues related to suppression of democratic freedoms. When this issue was raised in June the WSJ reports it drew the Obama comment: "democracy is hard." This is all the more astounding now says the Journal, after the WSJ report about corruption in the Najib Razak government related to the $700 million from a state owned investment bank. This editorial says about the record of the Obama administration on going silent when issues of freedom and suppression have come up from Iran in 2009 to many other events and Malaysia today- that this is one of the most puzzling aspects of the Obama presidency. It also points out this is is one of the most discouraging aspects of how the U.S. is seen in the world under the Obama presidency, when it comes to protecting freedom and freedom of speech and expression.

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist, author of the well researched book on the 2008 financial crisis, "This Time Is Different," gives his thoughts on the economic prospects for the U.S under the new Trump administration. He says 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation is possible temporarily for a while with stimulus policies, less regulation, and increased private investment. After 8 years of not investing in much needed infrastructure because of concerns about the deficit, the timing is right for such investments, especially as the economic effects of the crisis of 2008 gradually fade.  This is about taking advantage of ultra low interest rates to invest in infrastructure. He says it helps that Trump policies are pro-business. He sees drawbacks as the stimulus program adds a 25% increase with extra debt, adding $5 trillion over 10 years, but adds that for many years Nobel prize winning economist Krugman and others have said that there is good reason to increase borrowing to invest, and this is now being tried. Inflation remains an uncertainty- if there are large quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources it would raise prices less than its effect to increase output. The reverse would apply if the U.S. economy is closer to full capacity. One factor that would help- increasing confidence for business and increasing investment. Against this what he calls optimistic view or spin, is the idea of mistakes under a Trump administration, errors made and a degree of incompetence which he says is a real possibility. Overall his view is that some risks are appropriate now, and from his deep study of financial crises sees the slow growth of the last 8 years a result of a financial crisis that now begins to fade, creating the possibility of higher growth under prudent policies.  ...

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Costas Paris interviews Lucas Papdemos, former prime minister of Greece, and a former vice president of the ECB. Papademos points to the grave consequences for Greece of an exit from the euro with high inflation and higher interest rates, and gains in price competitiveness diminished by the inflation. He says Greece must stick to the committments for cutting spending and new taxes made earlier under his government.

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One of the favorable factors for Iraq in recent years was the surge in oil production, adding 1 million barrels a day to reach 3.3 million barrels a day. It surged to an average of 3.7 million barrels a day in December 2014 after a deal with the Kurdish region in northern Iraq for an additional 550,000 barrels a day in exchange for Kurds getting a 17% share of federal revenues. This helped Iraq overcome other problems. The drop in oil prices has led to a 40% drop in revenues and the invasion by Islamic State in a loss of some production.The federal budget of $101 billion planned revenues is based on an oil price of $56 and exports of 3.3 million barrels a day, resulting in a $20 billion deficit. It assumes $10 billion in new tax revenues which may be hard to achieve with a lack of strong central government. Experts on Iraq's oil industry say large investments are needed to offset declining oil production from older oil fields in southern Iraq. Oil exports were 2.5 million barrels a day in 2014, and experts say even this will be hard to achieve for 2015. Investments could come from western oil companies, but Iraq and the Kurdistan region are behind in payments to oil companies. Iraq is considering issuing bonds for $10-$15 billion....

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This Washington Post editorial says the Obama administration is complicit in the military attack on Morsi protester camps and civilians in Cairo on August 14, 2013, because of its failure to follow through on its warning that U.S. aid would be cut of in the event of the military taking a leading role in the overthrow of an elected government. U.S. legislation requires this action. By failing to call it a military takeover and by the administration's failure to strongly condemn the massive violation of human rights in the military attack on protesters and civilians, the Post says the Obama administration becomes complicit in the action. It sees this as self-defeating for the U.S., and unconscionable.

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Friedman reports from an election booth in the Shubra el-Khema neighborhood of Cairo during the Egypptian parliamentary elections in 2012. He says the realities are quite different as the poorly educated women who were voting described their day to day concerns to Friedman about security, education for the children and social services. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Al Nour party win most of the seats. Yet the democracy protests have empowered all parts of Egyptian society, and has created checks and balances in the process.

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Rosa Ines Rivera, a cook at the cafeteria for the Y.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, with 2 small children, describes the protests over the increase by Harvard administration of the premiums charged on health insurance that now take up over 10% of the income. She says she lives in public housing with her parents as she lost her apartment because she is behind on the rent, and now cannot afford to pay the increase in premiums. About 750 workers at Harvard are on strike on this issue. She says dining hall workers want the current pay of $31,193  a year increased to $35,000 to provide a living wage that helps them afford medical care, because of the high cost of living in Boston.  To get some idea of the plight of workers who provide the kind of nutritious meals that a lot of students depend on for healthy living- Rivera says she takes in about $450 a week after taxes, or about $1800, rent is $1150, which leaves $650 for herself and two children for all food, and expenses in Boston. The $4000 in premiums for health insurance would be about 330 per month, leaving her about $320 for food and living expenses with 2 children. Why the need to bring up children in poverty in America, for generation after generation, after putting in a full day of work? ...

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The Washington Post points out the damage to civil society and the rule of law in Egypt in 2014-2015.

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Out of the rubble of failed policies, lack of far sighted leadership, and the failure of Middle Eastern elites and leaders, must arise the right way forward.