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Sharp contrast between the Trump and Clinton economic plans- Trump's negative in the long run, Clinton's positive in the long run
10/18/2016
Economic experts look at the Trump and Clinton economic plans, Trump's based on extreme borrowing and Clinton's careful about deficits. Trump's plan aggravates the wide disparities in income in America after the tech booms and Clinton's reduces these disparities. Clinton's preserves global trading system while addressing the problems, Trump's moves in the direction of protectionism and high tariffs with potential unintended consequences for the global economy.
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Economic Plan, Up Close, Doesn’t Add Up
WSJ 10/18/2016
Donald Trump’s Tax Plan Would Boost Economy in Short Run but Not Long Term, Analysis FindsWSJ 10/17/2016
"Deaths of Despair", the causes and effects in a larger context, and the drop in America's ranking in the Social Progress Index to 19th in 2016
07/01/2016
How the middle aged white Americans 45-54 are faring in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater vulnerabilities in health, education incomes, savings, quality of life, mortality, upward mobility, for this group. Tragically this means their children and the next generation is also affected in the way fewer opportunities are available in the future. The situation is unique to America with weaker social protection than Europe, and to Britain because of years of austerity. There are no quick fixes with easy slogans, and requires first a national awareness, national consensus, and may require the better part of a generation to solve and restore the hope and promise of Jefferson in making the "inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" available to all.
Linked Articles
Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink
WSJ 06/30/2016
The U.S. Now Ranks 19th in ‘Social Progress,’ With Finland and Canada Topping the ListWSJ 06/30/2016
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
The problems threatening the white working class in America and the rise of cultural illiberalism
11/12/2015
Experts point to the economic anxieties of the white working class in America, a broad group that has increasingly fallen behind as technology advances in the 21st century with globalization and mobile capital, causing serious social fissures in society. One of the dangers is to the ideas of liberal society itself with the rise of cultural illiberalism, such as that presented by the Trump candidacy for president in 2016, and Marie Le Pen's National Front in France, as liberal elites in centre right and centre left lose their hold on working class voters.
Linked Articles
The Bleak Reality Driving Trump’s Rise
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
The missing working class - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/12/2015
Jeremy Corbyn and the proposal in 2015 for a National Investment Bank in Britain to make investments in education, health services and infrastructure
09/11/2015
A new leader of the Labor Party in Britain proposes a National Investment Bank. Some of the funding would come from an estimated 20 billion pounds of tax debt, 20 billion pounds in tax evasion, and 80 billion pounds in tax avoidance, according to experts in the Labor Party. Corbyn says he would reverse the introduction of fees for university education by previous Labor governments and has publicly apologized for the fees. The fees plan would cost about 7.1 billion pounds and be paid for by a 2.5% increase in the corporate tax, slower deficit reduction or increase in the insurance tax, says Corbyn. Germany continues to provide free university education.
Linked Articles
Leftist Jeremy Corbyn elected leader of Britain’s Labour Party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/12/2015
Jeremy Corbyn, Unlikely Front-Runner for Labour Leader, Poised to Win Party VoteNew York Times 09/11/2015
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the Euro in July 2015 (2)
07/07/2015
Linked Articles
German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015
Greek Political ContagionWall Street Journal 07/07/2015
Economic changes in the first year of the Modi administration in India- groundwork for 2016-2018
05/23/2015
Linked Articles
Economist 05/23/2015
How to run a continentEconomist 05/23/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
04/17/2015
The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.
Linked Articles
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic DiscordWall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Large losses of investors as the Swiss National Bank removes its cap on the Franc in Jan. 2015- from brokerage firm FXCM to retail investors
01/19/2015
Linked Articles
Swiss Franc Bets Turned on a Dime
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2015
Surge of Swiss Franc Triggers Hundreds of Millions in LossesWall Street Journal 01/19/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Changes in American breakfast eating habits affect cereal and orange juice sales in 2012-2015
07/22/2014
Linked Articles
As Cereal Slips, a New Battle Over Breakfast Dollars
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
U.S. Orange-Juice Sales Fall to Record LowWall Street Journal 07/22/2014
How the few Oxford educated politicians forming an old boy's club and their infighting by 2016 led to the vote for Brexit
07/08/2016
How Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson, a few Oxford educated politicians put their narrow interests and party politics ahead of the interests of Britain and the interests of the European Union.
Linked Articles
British Politics Gives a Sense of Government by Old School Chums
The New York Times 07/07/2016
Theresa May, Long in Public Eye, Finds Herself Focus of Conservative RaceThe New York Times 07/05/2016
U.S. president Obama and prime minister Narendra Modi of India- forging a new chapter in relations
06/06/2016
Linked Articles
President Obama and India’s Modi Forge an Unlikely Friendship
The New York Times 06/06/2016
A renewed U.S.-India partnership for the 21st century - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/30/2014
China and India at the Paris climate change talks
12/09/2015
Linked Articles
As U.S. and Europe Pass the Hat at Climate Talks, China Clings to Developing-Nation Status
New York Times 12/09/2015
For Indians, Smog and Poverty Are Higher Priorities Than Talks in ParisNew York Times 12/09/2015
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the euro in July 2015 (1)
07/07/2015
Chancellor Merkel's statement that the the Euro is the EU, now place more emphasis on building a strong future for the euro. Experts in Germany believe the euro is better off without Greece by July 2015. As the WSJ editorial points out political contagion is now a bigger threat to the euro, with euro skeptic parties joining populist parties with no committment to the common currency and its basic rules.
Linked Articles
German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015
It’s Time for Greece to Leave the EuroNew York Times 07/07/2015
The women's vote in 2016 U.S. presidential election and the antiincumbency mood of 2016- risks for Clinton running a cautious campaign and big risks for Trump
06/11/2015
Hillary Clinton needs a vigorous campaign away from the cautious instincts of the early days of her campaign, as Trump seeks to deflect criticism by attacking Hillary Clinton, say experts. The risks are high for Trump if the effort backfires alienating the vast majority of women, including Sanders supporters, independents and traditional Republican moderates. This is one of the wild twists of the campoaign of 2016- a candidate apparently making sexist comments to attract the support of white women voter- and men.
Linked Articles
Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Donald Trump’s Gender-Based Attacks on Hillary Clinton Have Calculated RiskNew York Times 04/28/2016
Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020
05/14/2015
With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.
Linked Articles
Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change
New York Times 06/05/2015
Indian Prime Minister Prods Coal MonopolyWall Street Journal 05/14/2015
Hard realities- what a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 could do for Greece and for the European Union
04/29/2015
The Economist says Greece could end up becoming a failed state at the doorstep of the European Union. With the major parties losing support extreme parties on the right and left would increase support. The economy of Greece would suffer serious damage. As prices have declined by 16% with no surge in exports, a devaluation of the drachma would not be of much help. Argentina went through a period of severe hardship following the default on the currency. Greece, says the Economist, may be engaging in a strategy to extract concessions from the EU by waiting till the last minute. Yet this strategy has its drawbacks because of the damage to Greece's economy in the process, with the slight growth under the Samaras administration turning into a recession with the 6 months of the Syriza government in 2015.
Linked Articles
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
My big fat Greek divorceEconomist 06/20/2015
"Operation Car Wash"- Petrobras, construction firms Odebrecht SA, Andrade Gutierrez, the Workers Party, and young prosecutors in Curitiba, Brazil
04/07/2015
Linked Articles
Brazil Arrests the Heads of Construction Giants in Graft Probe
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
How Brazil’s ‘Nine Horsemen’ Cracked a Bribery ScandalWall Street Journal 04/07/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
Two party systems and Malaysia's UMNO Party- (2) the future economic prospects of Malaysia under Razak, India under Modi, Indonesia under Widodo
12/08/2014
Najib Razak follows his father Tun Abdul Razak, Mahathir before him, all the way back to Tunku Abdul Rahman, all of the UMNO party, in an uninterrupted control of the United Malay Naional Organization Party which has ruled Malaysia for almost 6 decades. Malaysia has followed the example of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore by keeping the opposition parties weak to maintain control. Both the UMNO and the party of Lee in Singapore face questions about the merits of suppressing the development of two party systems, at a time when government is changing hands to opposition parties in most of the region and improving economic prospects in each country with a change of government- Abe in Japan, Widodo in Indonesia, Modi and Sharif in India and Pakistan, Aquino in the Philippines, Wickremesinghe in Sri Lanka. A economic drift with no clear direction under Singh and Bhutto in India and Pakistan was reversed with the election of Modi and Sharif, the economic drift and deflation under the Kan and Noda governments was reversed in Japan with the election of Abe, and the economic drift in Indonesia is being reversed by the Widodo government. This shows how critical two party systems are to functioning democracies as middle classes develop and voters look for competing views of the future to choose from.
Linked Articles
Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo Pledges to Cut Investment BarriersWall Street Journal 12/08/2014
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