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Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
How the few Oxford educated politicians forming an old boy's club and their infighting by 2016 led to the vote for Brexit
07/08/2016
How Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson, a few Oxford educated politicians put their narrow interests and party politics ahead of the interests of Britain and the interests of the European Union.
Linked Articles
British Politics Gives a Sense of Government by Old School Chums
The New York Times 07/07/2016
Theresa May, Long in Public Eye, Finds Herself Focus of Conservative RaceThe New York Times 07/05/2016
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
Assessment of U.S. president Obama's two terms in office 2008-2016 (1) - a declining middle class and a struggling working class
01/13/2016
Linked Articles
The Obama era has damaged liberalism - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/13/2016
A voice in the wildernessEconomist 01/19/2016
A guide to understanding the Middle East and South Asia and what this means for Europe and the U.S. (2) - Iraq, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan
09/11/2015
Linked Articles
Why Russia is in Syria - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/11/2015
Agents of Their Own DestinyWall Street Journal 09/25/2015
The huge contrast between Chancellor Merkel's approach and the approach of Obama and Cameron to the Syrian refugee crisis
08/20/2015
The German chancellor will be remembered in history for the way she handled the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, and for the courage to say, "if Europe fails on the question of refugees, its close connection with universal civil rights will be destroyed." Reports in the Guardian newspaper say Germany is likely to accept about 1 million refugees in 2015. Chancellor Merkel says about 800,000 refugees will be admitted in 2015. Contrast this with the UK reports the Guardian which has 166 refugees admitted to the UK, and reports in the WSJ that about 1500 refugees have been admitted to the U.S.. Merkel has taken on the challenge in a spirited way as Europe faces anti-immigrant sentiment and rallied German society in a way that is remarkable. The withdrawal of the Obama administration from the Middle East led to the collapse of the fragile situation in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and the unravelling of these countries, leading to the current refugee crisis with about half of the Syrian population dislocated and large parts of the population of Libya, Iraq, and Kurdish regions dislocated.
Linked Articles
U.S. Pressed to Take More Syrian Refugees
Wall Street Journal 09/05/2015
Why some German universities will educate refugees for free - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/20/2015
Ford Motor's higher profits from larger vehicles in the U.S. and China in 2015- the redesigned F-150 pickup, SUV's, with higher fuel efficiency, lower gas prices and lower interest rates
07/29/2015
Linked Articles
GM, Ford, Flourish Out of the Limelight
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Ford Bets on Fancy PickupsWall Street Journal 07/29/2015
The new multiyear program proposed by Germany and France to replace the June 2 proposal, following the Greece July 5, 2015 referendum, which sets more reforms
07/07/2015
Linked Articles
Merkel’s German Critics Say Greek Bailout Was Doomed From Start
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2015
Eurozone Sets Sunday Deadline for Greece Financing DealWall Street Journal 07/07/2015
German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the Euro in July 2015 (2)
07/07/2015
Linked Articles
German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015
Greek Political ContagionWall Street Journal 07/07/2015
Ukraine and the Minsk 2 agreement of Feb. 2015- (1) the U.S. and Russian views on implementation by June 2015
06/06/2015
Linked Articles
Putin Urges Western Pressure on Ukraine in Peace Effort
New York Times 06/06/2015
Defense Chief: Subversion, ‘Big Lie’ Are in Russia’s ArsenalWall Street Journal 06/06/2015
Restoring Deutsche Bank's image in Germany in 2015- (1) the new management
05/24/2015
Linked Articles
Shareholders’ Rebuke Pressures Deutsche Bank CEOs to Perform
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Deutsche Bank Co-Chief Executives ResignNew York Times 06/07/2015
Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020
05/14/2015
With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.
Linked Articles
Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change
New York Times 06/05/2015
Indian Prime Minister Prods Coal MonopolyWall Street Journal 05/14/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families
08/10/2016
The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/19/2012
Paul Ryan beats outsider 'mini-Donald Trump' challenger in Wisconsin primaryThe Guardian 08/10/2016
The pause in the U.S. economy with the May 2016 U.S. jobs report showing 38,000 jobs added
06/06/2016
Krugman discusses the U.S. May 2016 jobs report from the Labor Department. He says it will be harder to come up with a response to the political uncertainty in an election year, especially now that rates are near zero.
Linked Articles
Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June
The New York Times 06/03/2016
A Pause That DistressesThe New York Times 06/06/2016
The standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia/ Iran that created the prospect of low oil prices for the long term - (1) Saudis and Russian resilience in the face of low oil prices
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects ShrinkWall Street Journal 01/25/2016
A guide to understanding the Middle East and South Asia, 1980-2015, and what this means for Europe and the U.S. (1) - Iraq, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan
09/25/2015
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/12/2015
Agents of Their Own DestinyWall Street Journal 09/25/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the euro in July 2015 (1)
07/07/2015
Chancellor Merkel's statement that the the Euro is the EU, now place more emphasis on building a strong future for the euro. Experts in Germany believe the euro is better off without Greece by July 2015. As the WSJ editorial points out political contagion is now a bigger threat to the euro, with euro skeptic parties joining populist parties with no committment to the common currency and its basic rules.
Linked Articles
German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015
It’s Time for Greece to Leave the EuroNew York Times 07/07/2015
How the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership Agreement (TPP) fell apart- (2) fears of more job losses in the U.S. and economic impact on output in the U.S. of less than 0.5 percent
06/13/2015
Linked Articles
Labor’s Might Seen in Failure of Trade Deal as Unions Allied to Thwart It
New York Times 06/13/2015
Pacific Trade Deal Likely to Have Narrow ReachWall Street Journal 08/01/2015
Greece and EU in 2015- (1) How close were the 2 parties in the negotiations? Is default and eurozone exit good for Greece?
06/03/2015
Linked Articles
Greece’s Creditors Make Some Concessions as Showdown Approaches
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015
My big fat Greek divorceEconomist 06/20/2015
Lack of individual accountability for banks in legal settlements with regulators- (2) the old management still in place, " a solution to the problem or part of it?"
05/24/2015
The question put by Mr. Han Martin-Buhlmann of shareholder association VIP at the June shareholder meeting of Deutsche Bank was- "Mr. Jain are a solution to the problem or part of it?" Over a week later a new CEO was appointed.
Linked Articles
Economist 06/13/2015
Shareholders’ Rebuke Pressures Deutsche Bank CEOs to PerformWall Street Journal 05/24/2015
The economic problems of black communities- (1) decline in public sector jobs and the hollowing out of manufacturing in the last decade
05/06/2015
Linked Articles
Public-Sector Jobs Vanish, Hitting Blacks Hard
New York Times 05/24/2015
Pittsburgh’s Revival Lesson for BaltimoreWall Street Journal 05/06/2015
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