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Spain macroprudential supervision of its banking system once lauded now turns out to be "timid" and false, could the same be true for China?
07/18/2012
Spain's central bank had a reputation of providing good supervision for Spain's banking system. The problems at the Cajas Savings banks and the current assessment after the request for $125 billion in EU funds for Spain's banks shows how this turned out to be false. Does China face a similiar problem with its housing bubble. The U.S., UK and Spain, failed to control and manage the effects of a housing bubble, can China be a lone exception? Rapid growth enabled China to cope with bad loans in the banking system, with slower growth, a weak European market for exports, and a stimulus that is about one eighth the size in annual investment- one trillion yuan over 4 years in the current stimulus compared to 4 trillion over 2009-2010 in the last stimulus plan. Can China manage this bubble, does it have the experience managing this type of problem or has it papered over the problems as Spain did? This has repercussions for industries and countries from the export sector in Germany, Australia and Brazil to industries such as the German automobile industry, and companies such as Caterpillar.
Linked Articles
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
The July 2012 Report by an independent parliamentary panel on the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and prime minister Naoto Kan's testimony
05/28/2012
The report calls the disaster "a profoundly man-made event," and "a disaster 'Made in Japan,' " citing cultural factors that contributed to the accident. It is sharply critical of TEPCO and the Japanese government's response. Both the report and the testimony of the prime minister at the time of the accident, Naoto Kan, refer to the 'nuclear bloc' or 'nuclear village' in Japan that promotes nuclear energy. Some of its actions are dangerous to safety, such as locating the nuclear safety agency NISA inside the same ministry that promotes nuclear power, a critical flaw. Ironically Germany made the decision to make a gradual shift out of nuclear power after looking at the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and near collapse in Japan, while Japan is reactivating its nuclear plants to meet energy needs without having obtained public confidence in the system of nuclear energy including the essential safety actions. The result is a profound credibility gap about the nuclear plant industry, and public opposition in Japan.
Linked Articles
Report blasts Japan’s preparation for, response to Fukushima disaster - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/06/2012
Japan's Ex-Premier, Naoto Kan, Condemns Nuclear PowerNew York Times 05/28/2012
A consensus in Germany and France for improving France's competitiveness
05/01/2012
A consensus between Germany and France for slightly higher inflation in Germany, increase in German worker's wages, and wage restraint by unions in France in return for avoiding layoffs. This is a way to restore competitiveness of France after the balance was upset when German workers exercized wage restraint during the last decade, leading to France becoming less competitive with higher wages relative to Germany. Hourly wages in France estimated at 34 euros are 14% higher than in Germany.
Linked Articles
Europe Moving Toward Small Steps to Promote Growth
New York Times 05/10/2012
France Moves to Make Labor More FlexibleWall Street Journal 05/01/2012
Research In Motion's Blackberry 10 and the effort to put together a patchwork of technologies
03/30/2012
Research in Motion failed to come up with a smartphone in time to match the iPhone and Android based smartphones. The Blackberry 10 was put together in crisis mode by June 2012. This is a classic example of the chaos created for established players by new entrants and new technologies.
Linked Articles
RIM's New BlackBerry 10: The Patchwork Smartphone
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2012
BlackBerry Maker in TurmoilWall Street Journal 03/30/2012
Why America has a role to play as a leader for liberal democracy and free trade
02/10/2012
Much of the progress that the world has enjoyed in the last six decades is a result of America's leadership and championing of liberal democracy and its institutions, and free trade. A lot will be at risk if this role is jeopardized by a policy of indifference to American economic strength and astrong its manufacturing base, indifference to Europe as an invaluable partner of the U.S. with the same goals and ideals, and a new generation unaware of the role the U.S. played and continues to play in bringing the peoples of the world together around common goals and aspirations.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2012
Now That The Sun Has SetWall Street Journal 02/10/2012
Martin Feldstein on why the "Fiscal Compact" agreed to in December 2011 by EU countries is a failure
12/15/2011
Linked Articles
Europe Needs the Bond Vigilantes
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2012
The Euro Zone's Double FailureWall Street Journal 12/15/2011
Delving into the causes of higher income inequality and finding solutions
12/06/2011
As the OECD report shows income inequality is a global trend over the last three decades. This is further exacerabated by austerity policies. Causes of this range from education to favored treatment of economic sectors with greater influence on government.
Linked Articles
Angry about inequality? Don’t blame the rich. - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/28/2012
OECD report cites rising income inequality - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/06/2011
The cost of the electric battery in electric cars and building a viable electric car industry
07/02/2011
Major advances in battery technology and cost are needed for electric cars to take off. Gasoline needs to be higher than $4.50 a gallon in the U.S. for electric cars to be economically attractive. This includes a rebate of $7500 towards the higher cost of the electric cars. Battery cost is a major component of the extra cost.
Linked Articles
Ford CEO: Battery Is Third of Electric Car Cost
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
Long and Winding Road for Electric VehiclesWall Street Journal 07/02/2011
Impact of a slowdown in China and a global slowdown on different countries
06/08/2011
A slowdown in China will affect commodity exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil and Chile, and exporters of machinery such as Germany and Japan. A global economic slowdown will make it harder for troubled eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to reduce their debt burden. It will affect U.S. exports which are increasing in 2011, and are the one bright spot for a economic recovery.
Linked Articles
What a China Slowdown Means for the World
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Euro-Zone Cuts Face World of PainWall Street Journal 06/08/2011
Saudi expert Karen Elliott House's thirty years of experience covering the Middle East tell us that the U.S. policy is sorely out of touch in the Middle East
02/15/2011
Elliott House is a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal and a Pulitzer prize winner for covering the Middle East. She sees the Saudi Arabian princes sorely out of touch with the ordinary Saudis and the young people and U.S. policy at an impasse. Rice says the policy of supporting autocracy only brings a false kind of stability. She sees Egypt, Tunisia and the rest of the Arab world and thinks it did not have to be this way.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
From Tunis to Cairo to Riyadh?Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Nathan Sharansky says there are limits to how much you can control people through the use of fear and all people everywhere want freedom
02/05/2011
Nathan Sharansky makes the case for democracy. Rice talks about the long arc of history and trusting America's best idea and the principles of 1776, as a guide that will serve us well. Sharansky is a former human rights activist from the former Soviet Union, who worked with Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov for human rights and democracy before the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
Democracy's Tribune on the Arab AwakeningWall Street Journal 02/05/2011
A Brady Plan type solution to the debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries
11/30/2010
The extension of maturities for the debt of these countries is a key part of the solution. The Brady Plan that helped sove the Latin American debt crisis of the eighties and nineties is an example of the way out of the crisis. Resistance from bankers to taking losses of upto 30% and extending the maturities for debt. The need for Germany and other countries to set aside money that would be needed to recapitalize banks that need funds to handle these losses. Nicholas Brady when asked about this says it is important for this to be "a unified decision." This would create the confidence in the financial markets that will be needed.
Linked Articles
Europe's Central Banker Seeks Deeper Fiscal Union
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2011
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic CrisisNew York Times 11/30/2010
Apple products at manufacturing plants in China and at retail stores in the U.S.- low worker pay and lack of future prospects
05/29/2010
The high margins for Apple achieved through a combination of keeping costs low- even at the risk of providing poor wage and working conditions for the majority of employees employed in the retail stores in the U.S. and in supplier Foxconn plants in China- and by a grasp for innovation and technology. The paradox of a well deserved image for pioneering in technological innovation and the indifference to working conditions and prospects for employees who add value in manufacturing and customer interface. This model of growth is a recent development, put in place after 1997. In 1995-1997 Apple was nearing collapse under Michael Spindler and Gil Amelio, as documented by WSJ technology reporter Jim Carlton in his book- "Apple- The Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders." Steve Jobs returned as CEO in 1997 and set the future course and this model in place emphasizing design, his ability to grasp technologies that would appeal to customers, and hired Tim Cook to set up the manufacturing which had high rate of defects and higher costs. The model was as full of paradoxes, of genius combined with mediocre behavioursas the man Steve Jobs. Tim Cook has responded to criticism in 2012 by having the Fair Labor association audit Foxconn plants in China. Foxconn increased wages in 2012, shifted plants to the interior of China, and increased use of robotics.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/29/2010
Apple Stores Army, Long on Loyalty but Short on PayNew York Times 06/23/2012
The difficult outlook for Australia's Quantas airlines
06/05/2012
Linked Articles
Qantas Warns Of Big Drop In Earnings
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2012
Global Airlines Fly Into 'Storm'Wall Street Journal 06/05/2012
Enrique Pena Nieto's vision for the future of Mexico
05/20/2012
Nieto describes his vision and outlines his plan for Mexico in an op-ed in the NYT and in an interview with Lally Weymouth of the Washington Post. He says this is a new generation and this is not the PRI party of the past.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/02/2012
Interview with Mexican presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/20/2012
The absence of solutions to the underlying problem of increasing U.S. health care costs in fiscal cliff deficit negotiations
04/03/2012
Without a new approach to increasing health care costs, especially considering the demographic changes in the U.S. with more people on Medicare in future years, the problems of defunding other areas such as education, R&D, and infrastructure, to fund these increases is likely to continue. Estimates show that the 50 million Americans enrolled in Medicare in 2012 will grow to 80 million by 2030, according to the Medicare program actuaries. Demographic changes as the baby boom generation ages mean more Americans relying on Medicare and Medicaid. With continually increasing health care costs from costly technologies, increasing of diabetes, asthma and other diseases, pricing in the medical industry, and some fraud costs, this is a toxic mix that will lead to to a situation where one of three dollars in spending get swallowed up here.
Linked Articles
Beneath Budget Battle, a Health-Spending Juggernaut
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2012
What to Do on the Day After ObamaCareWall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Uncertain future for Australia's mining and commodities powered boom in 2012-2014
03/06/2012
The shift in China's economy towards consumption led growth from infrastructure development led growth is likely to affect mining commodity producing economies such as Australia, Brazil and Chile. The rapid appreciation of the Australian dollar and the real is also affecting the competitiveness of manufacturing in these countries.
Linked Articles
Australia Budget Turns Boom on Its Head
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
A smaller Wall Street in New York as the culture shifts towards emphasis on technology and other fields.
12/27/2011
The culture at Goldman Sachs and on Wall Street and the growing feeling that a shift to growth in other fields is a healthy development for New York and the U.S.
Linked Articles
Public Rebuke of Culture at Goldman Sachs
New York Times 03/14/2012
Wall Street Meets RealityNew York Times 12/27/2011
Natural gas as the dominant source of new power generation capacity in 2012-2035 (1)
12/12/2011
Energy Information Administration forecast for 2010-2035 shows 58% of new additions of power generation capacity coming from natural gas. The new availability of shale gas is leading to a surge in use of natural gas. Only 4.3% will be nuclear, dampening the development of nuclear energy. Renewables will be 29%. This is a major development in how America looks at energy.
Linked Articles
Cheap Natural Gas Unplugs U.S. Nuclear-Power Revival
Wall Street Journal 03/15/2012
America's New Energy SecurityWall Street Journal 12/12/2011
Cochrane's view reflecting that of other experts is that the only way out for Greece is a sovereign default, and starting over like Argentina
09/28/2011
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
Last Chance to Save the EuroWall Street Journal 09/28/2011
The signs of slower growth in China in 2012-2015 and what this means for commodity producer countries and producer countries of high tech machinery
06/09/2011
How the slower growth will affect commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Chile, S. Africa and high tech machinery exporters like Germany and the U.S.
Linked Articles
What a China Slowdown Means for the World
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
In China, Sobering Signs of Slower GrowthNew York Times 03/05/2012
Pernambuco and other states in Brazil's northeastern region- lack of investment in public health, education and transportation services infrastructure
05/21/2011
During the boom years much of the investment, about three fourths of the growth rate of over 4%, came from infrastructure investments that supported exports of soyabeans, iron ore and other commodities to China. Under the Worker's party socialist governments that get much of their support from the northeast, this disguised the low investments in public infrastructure services for drinking water, health sanitation, public schools and transportation services. This is a problem in developing countries of Latin America, South Asia, and Africa, with some regions lagging behind in essential infrastructure services, even with high growth rates.
Linked Articles
The Brazilian Doctors Who Sounded the Alarm on Zika and Microcephaly
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2016
Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurryEconomist 05/21/2011
The Elop memo in 2011 and the sale of Nokia's mobile phone business to Microsoft in 2013- the startling change of fortunes for Nokia
02/09/2011
Nokia was a pioneer in the development of mobile phones in an earlier era when fixed lines were the norm. It dominated the mobile phone business in the period before 2009 for 2 decades before the coming of smartphones. The change in Nokia's market came quickly and suddenly with the advent of the iPhone and Nokia was unprepared for this development. This is a classic case of obsolesence and disruptions caused by innovation and new technologies. Other companies from the previous era before cloud computing and the internet, H-P, Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft, face the continuing challenge to adapt or lose to new competitors.
Linked Articles
Microsoft in $7 Billion Deal for Nokia Cellphone Business
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2013
Full Text: Nokia CEO Stephen Elop’s ‘Burning Platform’ MemoWall Street Journal 02/09/2011
Sobhi Saleh of Egypt- from parliament to protests and the panel rewriting the constitution
02/04/2011
Nicholas Kulish's account in the NYT Feb 4, 2011, must rank as an exceptional piece of international coverage and journalism. It provides a heart rending account of the member of parliament from Alexandria. Arrested in the protests for democracy, Saleh makes his way out from a prison set on fire. Saleh is a member of an eight member panel rewriting the constitution in Feb. 2012.
Linked Articles
Egypt's Military Names Constitutional Panel
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Why a Member of the Muslim Brotherhood Was Late to the RevolutionNew York Times 02/04/2011
Strike at Honda and suicides at Hon Hai reflect worker dissatisfaction.
05/29/2010
Wages an issue at both companies. Military style discipline and monotony of life and work an issue at Hon Hai which employs 800,000 workers in China and is a key part of the Chinese manufacturing system which makes all kinds of electronic products
Linked Articles
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About Foxconn
BusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China EconomyNew York Times 05/29/2010
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