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With American households working down debt of 130% of disposable income a consumer led recovery is unlikely.
04/23/2009
The debt load for American households is close to the total output of the American economy in 2008. The disappearance of easy credit, the rising unemployment, and reduced hours of work, and lower or stagnant wage levels, are serious constraints to consumer spending.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
On Borrowed Time: Consumer-Led RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/10/2009
Views of experts from Raghuram Rajan, Paul Krugman and Simon Johnson are at odds with the Obama administration's recycling of prior Paulson's bank rescue plans
04/21/2009
Rajan and Johnson call for smaller, more transparent financial institutions through the government takeover of insolvent banks and breaking them up into smaller financial institutions that pose less risk to the country's economy and are easier to manage, and less prone to excessive risk taking. And they propose crafting policy and antitrust laws to make this work. Questions raised about the administration having too many people on its economic team who are deferential to Wall Street and not with a mindset that questions key assumptions -some call them sacred cows- that are put forward by Wall Street.
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
Time for Bank Creditors to Share the Pain?New York Times 04/29/2009
FT's Martin Wolf looks at Simon Johnson's argument that Obama is avoiding the tough choices because he has succumbed to pressure from financial elites.
04/14/2009
Wolf looks at Simon Johnson's argument about Obama's dithering on the tough issues like that of insolvent banks, and says America is not like Russia where financial elites controlled the government's way of responding into and out of a crisis.
Linked Articles
Unknown 04/15/2009
Text of Obama Economic SpeechBusinessWeek 04/14/2009
The crisis in Eastern Europe and other developing countries and the G20 policy mandate to the IMF to support social help and stimulus spending
03/28/2009
The G-20 mandate that the IMF be the conduit for funds to help emerging countries, with the policy direction that an additional $850 billion be used not only to fix finances, but also emphasize social goals, and help people in these countries cope with the crisis. This is of great help to countries in difficulty, and assurance that the social fabric in these countries will not be torn apart as has happened before, and that people will get the necessary assistance.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Eastern Europe and the Financial CrisisWall Street Journal 03/28/2009
Peter Eavis thinks the Geithner plan isn't based on sound logic.
03/23/2009
If only the confidence and liquidity were an issue then maybe the Geithner Public Private Investment Program plan might work. But says Eavis, the underlying price structure for these mortgage securities is gone with this crisis,so that the recovery in their price for banks to avoid huge losses is going to be elusive. He cites Credit Sights which estimates losses of US banks through 2010 of $250- $450 billion.
Linked Articles
Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial
New York Times 06/21/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
As capital markets shun small biotech startups large drug companies raise money for acquisitios and mergers.
03/16/2009
Drug companies have $155 billion they plan to use for mergers and acquisitions and are tapping the bond markets for funds. Meantime small biotech startups are running short of cash in large numbers. Will this squeeze innovation and new products as startups wither and the mergers run into problems?
Linked Articles
Drug Firms Bet Big on High-Risk Deals
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2009
Cash Dries Up for Biotech Drug FirmsWall Street Journal 03/16/2009
To just be where America was in 1999, household debt has to drop 30%!
03/11/2009
The movement among Americans like Mr Bailey in Boise, Idaho, to get debt free, is going to be as big a factor as the toxic assets at banks, and foreclosuresin housing, in the fundamental changes that are going on in the economy that will last for years, decades. These are conservative lending, government lending to make up, savings, less consumption and scrapping or sale of unneeded factory capacity (plant) to developing countries.
Linked Articles
Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2009
Frugality Forged in Today's Recession Has Potential to Outlast ItWall Street Journal 04/06/2009
Krugman thinks no early action to takeover insolvent banks will prolong this crisis, the President wants to "do no harm" by undermining confidence.
03/06/2009
Krugman thinks that this crisis could go on for adecade if no actions are taken to takeover insolvent banks before the situation worsens. THe President in his speech at Georgetown, on April 13, says he has not acted preemptively, not out of coddling these banks and their management, but becuase he did not want to undermine confidence. It suggests the President has moved quickly on many fronts, and he may be taking a pause to take stock of the situation and how to improve public support, before thaking on this issue and a number of others in the next round.
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 04/14/2009
The Big DitherNew York Times 03/06/2009
Astra Zeneca suppresses information about the link between best selling psychiatric drug Seroquel and diabetes.
02/27/2009
Now disclosed court documents show that AstraZeneca carefully suppressed information about the links between Seroquel and diabetes from a 2000 study from one of its drug safety experts.
Linked Articles
AstraZeneca Papers Raise Seroquel Issues
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2009
AstraZeneca Drug's Effectiveness QuestionedWall Street Journal 02/28/2009
The idea of one Europe and financial crisis in Eastern Europe.
02/26/2009
How leaders of Germany, France and Britain respond to calls for help from Eastern European countries will determine the future of the European community and the European Union. Will a differentiated approach develop that provides help to the newer members of the EU. Will the Swedish example with the Baltics lead to a supportive role by Germany?
Linked Articles
The bill that could break up Europe
Economist 02/26/2009
Growing Economic Crisis Threatens the Idea of One EuropeNew York Times 03/02/2009
Cornell's Frank points out that savings may be good for America once they are chanelled into investment.
02/15/2009
For this to happen some of the excess household debt from the number 96% of GDP, that household debt in the USA has reached, has to be shaved off. This is happening as Americans are shifting to becoming debt free in their finances. This affects consumption through the paradox of thrift. But says Prof. Frank this is OK, as the government steps in in the meantime to give the boost to the economy, till consumers recover from debt. Future savings can then be channelled into new productive investment for modernization's next phase, just as China and India are doing.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Go Ahead and Save. Let the Government Spend.New York Times 02/15/2009
Vaccine Maker Pfizer and the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.
01/26/2009
The limits to litigation risk for vaccines is one reason for the attractiveness and growing investment in the vaccines development. Its also what Pfizer hopes to develop with the Wyeth acquisition for $68 billion.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/23/2009
Pfizer Agrees to Pay $68 Billion for Rival WyethNew York Times 01/26/2009
How Pearson compares with New York Times Company.
01/20/2009
Pearson has shifted out of dependence on adspending for revenues by reducing ads as apercentage of revenues at Financial Times to 30% from 50%. Its textbook and Penguin books cushions it further from big declines in ad spending. The New York TImes has no such businesses and ad spending dominates. Its burdened by overborrowing and debt coming due and not enough controls on spending.
Linked Articles
Pearson Expects Strong 2008 Earnings
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
Billionaire Reaches Deal On Funding For Times Co.Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Paulson-Bernanke's "forced" acquisition of Merrill by Bank of America.
04/21/2009
Questions raised about the efforts by Paulson to prevent Lewis from backing out of the Merrill deal. The creation of even larger institutions through such combinations, and even weaker institutions.
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
Busting Bank of AmericaWall Street Journal 04/27/2009
By achieving US goal for stimulus spending and European goals for regulatory reform the G20 summit has achieved a lot for all countries.
04/03/2009
The US agrees to the European demands for strict global regulation, and the Europeans agree to stimulus committment of $850 billion through the IMF for emerging countries, making the summit a success.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Conceding U.S. Lapses, Obama Resists New Bank RulesNew York Times 04/03/2009
Geithner's Plan for Toxic Assets
03/23/2009
Experts are doubtful Geithner's plan of March 23, 2009 for toxic assets will work. Its similiar to plans previously announced by Paulson in the Bush administration. Views of Krugman, Eavis and Reinhart. If lack of confidence and lack of liquidity were the only problems they say, government money as incentives might work, but the problem is more basic and structural. These mortgage securities are from a time of easy money, now investors are shy of risks and would discount them even more as a safety factor, and banks would not want to sell them at that price. Are stress tests and nationalization of failed banks around the corner?
Linked Articles
Why Congress Will Kill the Bank Rescue
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
The Money multiplier is broken and the Fed's infusions are ending up in bank reserves.
03/20/2009
Banks have $679 billion in reserves, says Gongloff, and this matches the $653 billion that the Fed added to the money supply in this period. With the money multiplier broken the money is simply adding to the buildup of reserves at the banks.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Best Check on Inflation: Broken BanksWall Street Journal 03/20/2009
Child hunger in India and India's Food Security legislation in August 2013
03/13/2009
Food expert Rieff cites figures showing child malnutrition at over 40% in India for children under the age of 5 in 2009. A World Food Program report says 230 million people in India are hungry each year. India's Food Security legilation has to be seen in this context. Rieff says India is in danger of losing its demographic dividend as a result of child malnutrition. All developing countries can learn from each other and their programs to reduce child malnutrition, improve health care and vaccinations, and introduce healthy food and sanitary practices. Programs are in place in Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India, and China.
Linked Articles
As Indian Growth Soars, Child Hunger Persists
New York Times 03/13/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
The labor underutillizzation rate may hit 10% in 2010. This is the number to watch because of deepseated changes in the labor markets.
03/09/2009
This raises a number of questions about the economic recovery and calls for new initiatives in retraining and government assistance for companies to hire and retrain.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Jobless Scars Will Outlast the RecessionWall Street Journal 03/09/2009
The efforts of banks in better shape but still weak to wish the crisis away.
03/06/2009
Chase and Goldman's efforts to rewrite history, and act as though they did not benefit from government help is wrong and dangerous says the Economist. Its dangerous because it sends the message that any resoultion of toxic assets on banks books is unnecessary, and these banks should be treated differently when it comes to setting new prudent bank regulations, including setting regulation for incentives that do not support excessive risk taking and leveraging. A change in the economic climate for the worse could make this a dangerous complaceny.
Linked Articles
New York Times 03/06/2009
Thanks, for nothingEconomist 06/11/2009
The financial crisis poses a challenge to the idea of a single European Community, the EU itself.
02/26/2009
The countries of Eastern Europe and the banks of western European countries are enmeshed in a growing financial crisis that threatens the unity of Euope, and the idea of the European Community. What kind of help will Germany and other nations of western Europe provide. Will this be differentiated by different groups of countries like the Baltics different from Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic, and how will leaders like Angela Merkel of Germany negotiate the political winds, as she faces an upcoming election.
Linked Articles
The bill that could break up Europe
Economist 02/26/2009
Sweden Aids Bailout of Baltic NationsNew York Times 03/13/2009
Is this wasteful government spending or are there infrastructure projects out there that would give us efficient, productive spending?
02/15/2009
With spending in the Stimulus plan derided as wasteful spending a closer look is needed of what is happening in infrastucture projects out there. Here are some big projects, and the list does not include numerous others. Robert Frank, a Cornell economist, clarifies how government spending in a sharp downturn, as consumers rebuild their finances, is just what is needed.
Linked Articles
Big Ideas, Grand Plans, Modest Budgets
New York Times 02/15/2009
Go Ahead and Save. Let the Government Spend.New York Times 02/15/2009
For a Nobel prize winning economist a sick feeling in the stomach in February 2009.
02/13/2009
Is the US going the way of a train wreck as Japan did from the mid 1990's to 2003 with every set of actions falling short of the task of cleaning up the banking system and economic recovery? Krugman and Japanese experts who tackled the Japanese banking crisis sense something like this is happening in the US.
Linked Articles
New York Times 02/13/2009
In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for AmericaNew York Times 02/13/2009
The New York Times Company struggles with debt payments after years of overborrowing.
01/20/2009
Its not clear that the $250 million investment at 14% interest by Carlos Slim of Mexico will be enough as much of the repayment of debt of $1.1 billion comes due in the next couple of years.
Linked Articles
These Times Demand Tough Action
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
Billionaire Reaches Deal On Funding For Times Co.Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
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