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Eastern Europe and the Financial Crisis
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Most of the problems in Eastern Europe follow from overborrowing by the privae sector , consumers and corporate borrowing, in foreign currencies. According to David Roche of Independent Strategy, private sector foreign currency debt rose to 126% of foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2007. Roche is former head of research and global strategy at Morgan Stanley. As a result he says, 50% of household debt is in foreign currency in Hungary, 30-40% in Poland and Romania, and over 70% in the Baltic states. The debt in lowcost foreign currencies like Swiss Frances, Euros, and even yen, also expanded in the corporate sector. BY mid 2008 non-financial corporate debt in foreign currencies reached over 45% of corporate laibilities in Bulgaria, over 30% in Ukraine and Baltics, and over 20% in Hungary and Russia. To get an idea of the way the foreign subsidiaries of major western european banks expanded their lending, note that lending to homeowners between 2002 and 2007 doubled each year in Romania, rose 60-80% in the Baltics and Bulgaria, rose 20-30% in Poland and Hungary. And lending to corporations grew 20-30% a year. There is aclear suggestio of reckless lending and reckless borrowing in these numbers just as was seen in the way mortgage lending ocurred in the USA. The history of this kind of lending goes back to the reckless lending in Latin America in the eighties that led to lost decades many years before, and is a recurring story. Now Roche sees loss of GDP of 5%-6% for Turkey, Russia, Romania, Czech Republic and Poland, and 8-10% in Hungary, Bulgaria and the Baltic states. That would take 40% of foreign exchange reserves in Turkey,Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Ukraine. And this will have a human cost in jobs lost, crime, poverty, and years of progress lost in these countries. And it will ricochet back to the parent companies of the European banks that did a lot of this lending, with $130 billion additional losses, and a loss of 10% of tier one capital (equity capital plus disclosed reserves) of Western European banks.
Financial crisis in Eastern Europe in 2009 that rivals the American crisis.
10/10/2008
The financial crisis for Eastern Europe affects financial institutions in Western Europe that made loans and other financing in Eastern Europe, by some estimates of about one third of the GDP of these countries in Eastern Europe.
Grouped Articles
Hungarian Bond Market Freezes Up
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2008
Credit Crisis Slows Economy in Once-Hot Poland
New York Times 10/27/2008
As Ukraine Staggers, Its Leaders Quarrel
New York Times 11/04/2008
Sovereign Debt Risk Looms Large This Year
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2009
Eastern Europe Reels as Exports Fall
Wall Street Journal 02/13/2009
E.U. Leaders Turn to I.M.F. Amid Financial Crisis
New York Times 02/23/2009
The April 2009 G-20 Docklands, London Summit and the constructive confrontation between American and European positions.
02/15/2009
The positions of both sides. The Europeans credibly calling for global regulations as non-negotiable, and the US credibly calling for larger stimulus spending now when it would have the greatest impact. And the tough negotiations ahead.
Grouped Articles
Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2013
On a Scale of 1-10, G-20 Scores a 7
New York Times 04/03/2009
New York Times 04/05/2009
The Lines a German Won’t Cross
New York Times 04/05/2009
Big Ideas, Grand Plans, Modest Budgets
New York Times 02/15/2009
What the Chinese Want from Obama
New York Times 02/20/2009
The crisis in Eastern Europe and other developing countries and the G20 policy mandate to the IMF to support social help and stimulus spending
03/28/2009
The G-20 mandate that the IMF be the conduit for funds to help emerging countries, with the policy direction that an additional $850 billion be used not only to fix finances, but also emphasize social goals, and help people in these countries cope with the crisis. This is of great help to countries in difficulty, and assurance that the social fabric in these countries will not be torn apart as has happened before, and that people will get the necessary assistance.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Eastern Europe and the Financial Crisis
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2009
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