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The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Robert Khuzami and the S.E.C.'s ambivalent enforcement mindset 2010-2012
02/10/2009
The lack of corrective acton that changes the leadership and culture at financial companies in the U.S. following the 2008 financial crisis. Where the action by enforcement agencies has required admitting wrongdoing as part of the settlement, the changes in leadership and culture have put the companies on a new path to renewal. Barclays under one of the respected names in British finance, David Walker, is a recent example.
Linked Articles
Top Enforcer at the S.E.C. Steps Down
New York Times 02/10/2009
SEC's Top Cop Oversaw Deutsche CDOsWall Street Journal 04/24/2010
Silicon Valley's lack of resilience.
12/31/2008
The short term thinking, risk aversion, and how the economic crisis makes things worse by exaggerating these two attitudes. The lack of resilience that is inherent in these atitudes as it does not increase selfawareness and the confidence from overcoming difficulties and challenges.
Linked Articles
Whatever Happened to Silicon Valley Innovation?
BusinessWeek 12/31/2008
Anxiety Management in an Economic CrisisBusinessWeek 12/31/2008
How global imbalances in savings were ignored as the risks increased.
12/26/2008
Prof. Portes on global imbalances in savings. What happened and why the risks were not understood by Bernanke, Greenspan, and others. The view that successful models are very hard to change, reluctance in China to disturb the status quo, and the difficulty of getting people to accept the need to move away from this without a crisis.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American BubbleNew York Times 12/26/2008
Le Clezio and Chinua Achebe look at Nigeria
10/10/2008
Le Clezio looka at Nigeria during the British colonial period in "Onitsha." Onitsha is the second largest city in Nigeria after Lagos. Achebe offers a hometown writer's verson of Nigeria during the hopeful period after independence in the sixties and the struggles and strife of the decades following this.
Linked Articles
French Writer Wins Nobel Prize
New York Times 10/10/2008
Chinua Achebe, Famed Nigerian Writer, DiesWall Street Journal 03/22/2013
Bob Woodward on decisionmaking in the Obama White House and the Bush White House
09/15/2008
In "The War Within" Woodward described how Bush persevered to get the job done right in Iraq. In "The Price of Politics," Woodward describes how Obama failed to use his presidential leadership and suthority to get all sides to reach an agreement. Bill Keller of the NYT says Obama failed to make the "unpleasant choices" a president has to make, including supporting the president's own Simpson-Bowles Commission on the U.S. deficit.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/15/2008
Notable & QuotableWall Street Journal 09/07/2012
Honda's decades long emphasis on the environment and fuel efficent small cars is making it a winner.
07/28/2008
Honda is the only one of the large manufacturers od autos that is increasing sales in the North American market.
Linked Articles
Honda Stays True to Efficient Driving
New York Times 08/26/2008
Honda's On the Go As Auto Makers Brace for July ResultsWall Street Journal 07/28/2008
Geneal Motors Board and its top management hobble along without a vision or timely decisions at critical turning points.
06/28/2008
The lack of vigorous discussion at the Board and top management levels of Gneral Motors is the most striking thing about the company. Classic example how the larger and more successful an institution, there is no assurance that even the vital skills of vigorous discussion and openness to fresh thinking promoted by its founders like Alfred Sloan in this case in one of his meetings, that these skills will be available in the future.
Linked Articles
GM's Massive Quarterly Loss Adds to Turnaround Pressure
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2008
McCain Offers Aid, No 'Bailout' on AutosWall Street Journal 06/28/2008
China's oil demand to grow at 2-3% over the next 15 years by one estimate.
06/20/2008
A much slower growth in oil demand as fuel efficient engines make a strong impact. Government policy raising oil prices, giving tax breaks for smaller engines to promote smaller cars on Chinese roads, and promotion of new hybrid and electric car technologies with significant subsidies, all push in this direction.
Linked Articles
China's Thirst for Oil Could Come Up Short
Wall Street Journal 06/01/2010
China Sharply Raises Energy PricesNew York Times 06/20/2008
Huge shift in car mix in favor of smaller cars as USA buyers finally make the shift and fast.
06/19/2008
Small cars sales move up quickly from 12.5% to 20% of vehicles sold. Market is running at 12.5 million vehicles in May 2008. The small car share will rise much higher as supplies increase, currently small cars sell quickly and are in short supply especially for Hona Fit and Civic cars and the Ford Focus.
Linked Articles
The Smaller the Better, Automakers Are Finding
New York Times 06/20/2008
GM Puts Off Truck, SUV Redesigns In New FocusWall Street Journal 06/19/2008
Karen Elliott House, expert on Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, on the U.S., the EU, and Saudi Arabia- demographics, aspirations and the princes 2007-2014
05/14/2008
Pulitzer prize winning journalist for reporting from the Middle East and expert on Saudi Arabia, Karen Elliott House, describes the changes in Saudi Arabia with the huge young demographic, and what it means for Saudi society, U.S.-Saudi relations, meeting the aspirations of young people.
Linked Articles
As the Middle East Burns, the Saudis Ease Up at Home
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2014
Our Friends in RiyadhWall Street Journal 05/14/2008
The strategy of passing on food price increases in emerging markets of Unilever, P&G (Procter & Gamble), Danone and Nestle
04/30/2008
Linked Articles
Grain Companies' Profits Soar As Global Food Crisis Mounts
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2008
Unilever Sales Rise as Its Prices ClimbWall Street Journal 11/04/2011
With American households working down debt of 130% of disposable income a consumer led recovery is unlikely.
04/23/2009
The debt load for American households is close to the total output of the American economy in 2008. The disappearance of easy credit, the rising unemployment, and reduced hours of work, and lower or stagnant wage levels, are serious constraints to consumer spending.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
On Borrowed Time: Consumer-Led RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/10/2009
The head of Allstate on the need for effective financial regulation.
04/16/2009
Effective regulation and the effect of lobbying in creating areas of unregulated exposures.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/16/2009
Danger in Wall Street’s ShadowsNew York Times 05/15/2009
Britain's RBS Bank and the incredulous- huge losses and large bonuses in the "Hard Times" of the 2008 financial crisis and again in 2014
02/09/2009
Linked Articles
In U.K., Getting Tough With Nationalized Banks
Wall Street Journal 02/09/2009
Royal Bank of Scotland to Slash Costs as Losses DeepenWall Street Journal 02/28/2014
The paradox of low U.S. productivity growth holding back wages in 2015-2016 (1) - Apple Google, Facebook and low productivity improvement since 2005
12/31/2008
Linked Articles
Whatever Happened to Silicon Valley Innovation?
BusinessWeek 12/31/2008
The Big MehNew York Times 05/25/2015
Coming up with a new strategy in Afghanistan is critical to avoid getting bogged down.
12/07/2008
The Obama administration has to craft a new strategy in afghanistan as it moves to commit more troops and resources to avoid getting bogged down there.
Linked Articles
Fearing Another Quagmire in Afghanistan
New York Times 01/25/2009
Lakhdar Brahimi - A New Strategy for AfghanistanWashington Post 12/07/2008
The Martin Feldstein plan to address foreclosures and the plan of Glenn Hubbard.
10/02/2008
Feldstein headed Reagan's economic policy team, and Hubbard headed the elder Bush's economic policy team. Its interesting that both lamented the lack of addressing the foreclosures as root of the problem. Feldstein and Hubbard gave their own proposals on the pages of the WSJ on the eve of the $700 billion bailout. The bailout plan had this gaping hole in it- with little for serious foreclosure prevention.
Linked Articles
The Problem Is Still Falling House Prices
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2008
First, Let's Stabilize Home PricesWall Street Journal 10/02/2008
Did Putin overreact in Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014? Russia and the dangers to the Russian economy of not maintaining good relations with the West
08/13/2008
Russia tones down its overreaction as 66% of Russians polled in June say Russian forces should not enter Ukrainian terrritory. Putin and Russians in the administration policy making may have underestimated the reaction in the U.S. as reflected in this WSH editorial saying Americans should remember the words of Gen. Lucius Clay during the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent airlift. This could be why analysts in Russia now maintain that good relations with the West must be maintained, and entry of Russian forces into Ukraine would have disastrous consequences for Russia in terms of western sentiment and foreign investor sentiment. In such a situation Germany would be likely to support the stronger U.S. position seeing this in terms of the language used in theBerlin Airlift of 1948. For Germany and Russia this would be reversing the hard won gains of building relations from the time of Brandtand Kohl till today, fifty years of effort to build better relations and economic relationships- just too much for sober heads in Moscow Paris, and Berlin to accept, and closing another chapter in Russia's interactions with the West.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2008
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters CourseNew York Times 07/11/2014
Rising wages in China a definite trend as sentiment of workers and the government changes towards low wages and low wage jobs
06/30/2008
The government's efforts to shift China away from low wage sectors to more advanced technologies with higher wages. And the growting sentiment in China among workers with the rise of the internet and mobile phones to organize efforts for higher wages in industries that range from older textile plants to automobile factories of Japanese makers, and factories that make parts for western tech hardware companies such as Apple, Dell and H-P. This includes Honda plants and Foxconn factories. This sentiment is shifting to other emerging markets such as Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
Linked Articles
China's Export Machine Threatened by Rising Costs
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2008
The Rise of a Chinese Worker's MovementBusinessWeek 06/10/2010
The impact of energy costs on the Chines export model of low cost low margin textiles, shoes household goods
06/20/2008
Higher energy prices are showing up in the higher cost of Chinese goods abroad along with other cost increases.
Linked Articles
China's Export Machine Threatened by Rising Costs
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2008
China Sharply Raises Energy PricesNew York Times 06/20/2008
CarMax used SUV and truck prices for early months of 2008 show stunning declines prompting GM rethinking its entire product lineup.
06/19/2008
CarMax, a used car retailer says price declines for SUV's and pickup trucks were severe in early months of 2008 with a 25% decline. The declines were sharpest in May and early June suggesting that things could get very bad for carmakers which don't make an abrupt and dramatic shift away from these types of vehicles.
Linked Articles
GM Puts Off Truck, SUV Redesigns In New Focus
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2008
Grim CarMax News Hits Auto MakersWall Street Journal 06/19/2008
How all carmakers and Detroit automakers in particular missed what was happening in the economy and the market with dire results.
05/20/2008
Even as late as May 22, 2008 Ford pared its outlook to 14-15 million cars as reported by Jeff Bennett in the WSJ. That puts the situation in October 2008, with a 30-40% drop in sales year over year only 5 months away.
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Ford Motor Pares OutlookWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
BMW, Benz and luxury retailers Saks, Nordstrom face declining luxury consumption.
04/30/2008
Sales at luxury retailers full priced stores are flat or declining while their factory outlets are seeing increased sales. BMW and Mercedes are taking writedowns for the drop in the value of their secondhand leased cars in the USA. This reflects declining economic conditions in April 2008.
Linked Articles
Profit Hurt, BMW Diverts Cars From U.S.
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2008
Luxury Retailers Pin Hopes on OutletsWall Street Journal 04/30/2008
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