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Explaining What Donald Trump Wants to Do Now on Immigration
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Julia Preston of the NYT looks at Mr. Trump's speech on August 31, 2016 in Pheonix, Arizona, and compares what one can discern about the Trump policies on immigration with that of president Obama. She points out that it is similar to the deportation that was conducted under president Obama in some ways, but is more extensive in its dimensions. It includes sanctioning sanctuary cities, expanding the deportation law enforcement personnel, and deporting about 2 million people with criminal backgrounds. The estimate under the Obama administration is for about 176,000 people with such backgrounds. The Trump estimate appears to include people with minor offenses says Preston, because it is so much higher. As a result this could also include people who have no criminal background and disrupt families on a large scale, with hundreds of thousands of longtime residents and families deported. Under the sanctuary example of Trump, Denver, New York and counties in California would be places where Trump would cut off federal funding. On the wall itself, Mexico's president Nieto says he told Trump Mexico would not pay for the wall, and Trump says exactly the opposite that Mexico would pay for the wall in his speech to supporters. A Gallup poll shows that 76% of Republicans, 91% of Democrats favor a path to citizenship for those here in the U.S. illegally. For the whole population only 15% oppose giving illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship and 84% support doing this. Which suggests that Trump is only appealing to his base of support, not adding to it, as Cillizza points out in the WP fact check.
Rebublican 2016 presidential candidate Donald Trump and the core support from the white working class, many 55-64 years without a high school education
11/18/2015
A PRRI and Brookings Institution survey shows 55% of Donald Trump's support comes from the white working class who see immigrants in a negative light and are critical of large corporate interests. This group also sees political correctness as being a problem.
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Urban liberal moderates such as in the urban centres of Georgia and South Carolina form the basis of a new Democratic party in the South in 2016. Trump's resemblance in rhetoric to Alabama governor George Wallace, immigration now and civil rights then, is creating a new dynamic in the Southern U.S. states with college educated voters in the suburbs, especially women, and some Republican women shifting away from Trump.
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Trump was sharply critical of the 2011 Alabama immigration law designed to promote self-deportation in calling it "crazy" and "maniacal." What changed in 2015 when Trump called for large scale deportation of illegal immigrants during the presidential campign is not clear. Two other developments happened since the Alabama law- the U.S. economy had largely recovered from the worst effects of the recession and immigration from Mexico was down to low levels, a trickle not seen in a long time as a result of the recession. A third development was that President Obama had pursued a policy of aggressive deportation in his years in office followed by an executive order on immigration late in the second term granting illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship.
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Trump's changes to immigration policies by September 2016
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Trump says only criminals and bad illegals would be immediately deported in a modification of his immigration policy. This is similiar to president Obama's policy.
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Trump’s Shift in Immigration Stance Echoes Obama Administration Policy
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Explaining What Donald Trump Wants to Do Now on Immigration
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Sharp differences emerge between the two parties on the minimum wage, taxes, spending and foreign policy. For domestic policy there are now stark differences between the 2 parties not seen for many years when both parties stayed closer to the centre. One has to go back to the Reagan election to see such differences. This also reflects the issue of a shrinking middle class, and a white working class that is falling behind in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The Republican candidates except for John Kasich oppose increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 an hour set in 2009. The Democratic candidates O'Malley and Sanders support setting it at $15, and Hillary Clinton supports it at $12, as advised by economist Alan Krueger. Krueger sees no significant job losses at $12 an hour. Also to be factored in is the time period this goes into effect which may span some years. On taxes Democratic candidates support taxing the wealthy, especially the top 1%, Clinton favoring taxing wealthy above $250,000 in incomes. This would pay for free tution under the Sanders plan, or an alternative plan by Clinton with similiar outcomes. The Democratic candidates are focussed on a middle class and white working class that they see as falling behind. The Republicans focus on cutting taxes to create jobs. On foreign policy Sanders is against foreign intervention, Clinton supports limited engagement differing from Obama's very cautious policy. Republican candidates such as Jeb Bush call for intervention in Syria-Iraq, Trump not favoring intervention. Other issues setting the two parties apart is the approach to immigration and Obama health care program. Donald Trump has the most strident views on immigration calling for large deportations, and Hillary Clinton calling for giving a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants. In the debates Democratic candidates repeatedly emphasize that immigration from Mexico is now practically nill following the sharp U.S. recession. Mainstream media on the Republican side see risks in the strident po
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Donald Trump's plans for large scale deportation even as a Gallup poll shows only 15% opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S.
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The wide divergence between public opinion in the U.S. and the Trump stand for large scale deportation. A Gallup poll on July 1, 2016, shows 84% of the U.S. adults favoring a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S., only 15% opposing.
Linked Articles
Explaining What Donald Trump Wants to Do Now on Immigration
The New York Times 09/01/2016
Donald Trump’s big immigration speech proves it: There is no ‘new’ Donald Trump
Washington Post 09/14/2016
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