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U.N. Nuclear Agency Chief Sees Challenges in Iran Deal
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The WSJ's Laurence Norman talks to Yukiya Amano, head of the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the responsibility of verification and inspection of Iran's nuclear development and facilities. Amano describes the issues raised by a 2011 report which outlined 12 sets of concerns to which Iran has to explain, a condition included in the final nuclear agreement. Iran has to respond by mid-August, IAEA then responds, and does work in Sept and Oct, and submits its report by Dec. 2015. Yamano says he has to fill in all the missing pieces in this jigsaw puzzle to get a full picture of Iran's nuclear development. Iran has denied access to military sites and Mr. Amano couldn't say if he has access to the Parchin military site. A concession that was made in the agreement is the long interval of three weeks before access to a particular site that arouses suspicions-the agreement gives Iran the right to appeal an IAEA request to visit such a site to a special commission. The U.S. and its European allies have a majority on the commission yet three weeks are allowed in which Iran could move material to some other location. For critics the question will be why such a concession was needed if Iran truly has decided not to develop nuclear weapons technologies. The U.S. president's response at a news conference on July 15, 2015, was that with the laws of physics the U.S. monitoring tools would detect nuclear activity at that site. The agreement also gives Iran an earlier than planned lifting of a ban on sales of arms and missiles and missile parts if the IAEA says Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful. Iran could conceivably wait till the ban is lifted and its economy in a much stronger position to withstand any future limited sanctions to pursue nuclear weapons development. This would have delayed development for a few years during which time the hope is that Iran has changed into a more peaceful nation pursuing economic development in its region, yet even if this is the case as as happened with India and Pakistan it could still pursue nuclear weapons development. The alternative is a status quo till a better agreement is reached with the leverage of tight economic sanctions and continuing dialogue during which time Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, or the use of force to prevent this. Iran added the arms embargo issue during the last weeks of the negotiation in June, a controversial move on Iran's part, as this may have complicated the picture with ballistic missiles technology exports to Iran approved after 8 years in the final agreement, compared to the agreement reached in April 2015 which made no mention of the lifting of the arms embargo. Iran played on the notion that if Zarif returned to Iran without an agreement hardliners including Khamanei would veto any agreement, yet this could just be the Iranian negotiating strategy. U.S. president Obama stated at the July 15, 2015 news conference that it would be hard to hold sanctions for longer. Critics might argue that China was already benefitting from the small easing of sanctions by increasing Iranian oil imports by 30% in 2014, and would have less incentive to withdraw from sanctions, as it is dependent on the U.S. and the EU, major markets for its exports and access to technologies. A WSJ/NBC poll in July shows almost half of the people polled in the U.S. saying they do not know enough to express an opinion, a steady 36% support an agreement, showing that the public has not been educated and taken along during the different steps in the largely secret negotiations.
WSJ intervew with Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in July 2015 following the nuclear agreement with Iran
07/16/2015
Mr Amano of the IAEA, the UN agency which will monitor Iran's compliance with the agreement says the job of looking into the issues of past nuclear activities by mid-December 2015 can be done if Iran cooperates fully. He has worked out a side agreement to ensure Iran provides information. He says instead of ticking away at boxes this time in sequence and being slowed down as Iran dragged its feet for moving to the next step, this time all the matters will be tackled simultaneously. Still he sees this as a challenge of filling in a large jigsaw puzzle. The Parchin military site receives special mention. Iran gets three weeks interval before the inspection of a military site begins, during which time it could move nuclear material to a different site. President Obama says at his news conference on July 15, 2015, that he relies on laws of physics that will tell the U.S. monitoring tools whether any nuclear material was at a site.
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The percentage of people polled in the do not know enough to formulate an opinion category goes up six percentage points to 46% from 40%, the opposed declines by six percentage points to 17% from 23%, and those in favor stays steady at 36%, showing a slight shift between the polls in April and July 2015. Because of the intricacies of a deal and other behavioural factors the uncertain caegory dominates. Intricacies involve the details about nuclear technology and sites in Iran. The element of distrust involves inspection of military sites, and Iranian promises not kept in the past. Behavioural factors include the large number of young people in Iran born after the revolution, a possible shift to moderation in policies as Iran opens up to the world, and the risks of Iran going back to isolation and hardliners if the talks failed. About 70% of the population in Iran of 74 million is under 35 years of age, meaning that almost all know little about the period before the revolution in 1979, and are the group most open to the outside world. Failure to close a deal also increased the risk that the Saudis would strive to develop nuclear weapons technology increasing proliferation. Pressure on Iran, including from Israel and the U.S. Congress, serves to get the best possible deal. A deal has economic repercussion for oil prices, as it means the flow of Iranian oil to markets, competing with the Saudis and shale oil producers in the U.S., and providing a boost to the economies of the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time of sluggish growth in the global economy in 2015. Germany which lost a growing business in Russia with the sanctions gains a new market in Iran. and containing its nuclear program.
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International inspectors from the UN's agency will face the same problems they faced in Iraq and in an earlier period in Iran, say critics of the nuclear agreement. With the Security Council divided, and China, Russia opposing a "snap back" in sanctions, the "snap back" option may not work in the future. If German and French companies enter the Iranian market it will be diffficult to get Germany and France to support a reimposition of sanctions. As a result the entire framework of the agreement rests on verification and the record on this is weak.
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