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WSJ/NBC polls in April and July 2015 showing a slight shift in American public opinion to being open to a nuclear deal with Iran that prevented it from developing a nuclear weapon

06/30/2015

The percentage of people polled in the do not know enough to formulate an opinion category goes up six percentage points to 46% from 40%, the opposed declines by six percentage points to 17% from 23%, and those in favor stays steady at 36%, showing a slight shift between the polls in April and July 2015. Because of the intricacies of a deal and other behavioural factors the uncertain caegory dominates. Intricacies involve the details about nuclear technology and sites in Iran. The element of distrust involves inspection of military sites, and Iranian promises not kept in the past. Behavioural factors include the large number of young people in Iran born after the revolution, a possible shift to moderation in policies as Iran opens up to the world, and the risks of Iran going back to isolation and hardliners if the talks failed. About 70% of the population in Iran of 74 million is under 35 years of age, meaning that almost all know little about the period before the revolution in 1979, and are the group most open to the outside world. Failure to close a deal also increased the risk that the Saudis would strive to develop nuclear weapons technology increasing proliferation. Pressure on Iran, including from Israel and the U.S. Congress, serves to get the best possible deal. A deal has economic repercussion for oil prices, as it means the flow of Iranian oil to markets, competing with the Saudis and shale oil producers in the U.S., and providing a boost to the economies of the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time of sluggish growth in the global economy in 2015. Germany which lost a growing business in Russia with the sanctions gains a new market in Iran. and containing its nuclear program.

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