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China’s motor industry: The coming crash
Keywords: China Auto Industry, China Auto,
This report in the Economist says that the days of double digit increases in the car market are a thing of the past. Future increases will be in the mid to high single digits, according to McKinsey consulting firm. China's economy is slowing and official estimates of GDP growth of 7% are described by experts as overstated, with real estimate of growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 by Citi, Conference Board and Capital Economics all below 5%, as reported in the WSJ. A sign of the change in the market is the need for higher use of incentives. The growth in the used car market offers buyers other alternatives. The new plants being added will increase production by 5.3 million light vehicles a year and come online in 2015 and 2016, this is in addition to the 22.8 million in sales in 2014. Average Chinese auto plants operate at 70% of capacity and the added volume will lower capacity utilization further. China's local automobile companies, with the exception of companies in joint ventures with foreign companies, have failed to gain customer loyalty. Many of these companies may be absorbed by foreign car makers or shut down as the industry consolidates. Foreign companies will find doing business less attractive as sales decline.
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General Motors has its second largest market in China where it sold more than 1 million cars. In 2007 and sales growth was 21%.
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After years of surging automobile sales a slowdown in China in 2012-2013. This happens as foreign automakers continue to add capacity and reduces prospects of GM, Toyota, and VW in the Chinese market.
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Luxury Car Makers Brace for Slower China Sales
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Wall Street Journal 10/23/2010
Toyota Revs Up Ambitious Plans for China
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Subsidies Stoke China's Domestic Car Makers
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2014
China's automaker Geely.
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Grouped Articles
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Geely's Li Doubles Down on Volvo
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Economist 04/25/2015
Global overcapacity in the auto industry: 2011-2013
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As growth slows in China's automobile market there will be growing auto manufacturing overcapacity in China. Worldwide manufacturing capacity exceeds demand by a wide margin. This will pose serious problems in a new downturn.
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Toyota China
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Toyota in the Chinese auto market.
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Toyota Revs Up Ambitious Plans for China
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Wall Street Journal 04/25/2014
Toyota, Nissan Post Slower China Sales Growth
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Japan Car Makers Skid in China
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09/18/2007
Behaviour of the Chinese car market. Buyer preferences and habits and changes in the way this market is developing.
Grouped Articles
Auto Sales Keep Humming in China
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Territorial Dispute Continues to Affect Japanese Car Sales in China
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Renault to Focus on Building SUVs in China
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2013
Chinese Car Buyers Should Keep On Motoring
Wall Street Journal 12/26/2013
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Economist 04/25/2015
China's Car-Price Wars Dent Profits
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China's car market 2014-2015
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Grouped Articles
China’s motor industry: The coming crash
Economist 04/25/2015
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Daimler China.
05/28/2010
Daimler and Mercedes Benz Cars in China.
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Mercedes Delivers Bullish Forecast On China Strength
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Pulling Mercedes Out of a Chinese Ditch
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VW's push to increase sales in China by 70% by 2018
03/15/2013
This includes a small car modeled on the French Dacia model and priced at about 6000-8000 euros.
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Economist 08/24/2015
The growing market for luxury and premium cars in China
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BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac and other luxury car makers see surging sales of luxury cars in 2012-2014
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Volkswagen to Invest $107.3 Billion Over Next 5 Years
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2014
VW Drives for Gains in Southern China
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
Audi Lifts Investments to $29 Billion
Wall Street Journal 12/29/2014
VW's aggressive capital spending plans of 85.6 billion euros for 2015-2019
11/22/2014
VW says increases in spending will go to meet higher CO2 standards and includes $22 billion in China
Grouped Articles
Volkswagen to Invest $107.3 Billion Over Next 5 Years
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2014
VW Drives for Gains in Southern China
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
China’s motor industry: The coming crash
Economist 04/25/2015
Ford Motor's disaster in the Chinese market by 2019- management out of touch with China's love of technology
07/23/2019
Ford management turnover at CEO and head of China operations and executives from Europe/ U.S. transplanted to China lacking touch with local conditions led to the disaster in the Chinese market with $1.5 billion in losses in 2018 and loss of about half of the Chinese market by 2019. Exuberant expansion as a latecomer hurt Ford, Peugeot and Hyundai, as the Chinese market declined in 2018-2019 with the new Trump administration in conflict with China over trade goals.
Grouped Articles
Carmakers' Rush to China Could Fuel Another Bubble
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Ford’s Shrinking China Business Is Hurting Its Global Ambitions
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China’s Car Slump Leaves Foreign Auto Makers With Idle Factories
WSJ 12/25/2018
Ford: Riding High on China’s SUV Boom
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2016
Ford to Pour $1.8 Billion Into Smartcars for China
Wall Street Journal 10/13/2015
China’s motor industry: The coming crash
Economist 04/25/2015
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