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Italian Election Isn't a Good Reason for Investors to Panic
Keywords:
Barley points out the resignation of prime minister Monti in Italy is not a cause for panic, as his likely successor Luigi Bersani, head of the centre left Democratic party which leads in the polls with its electoral alliance having about 43% support, has committed to following through with Monti's policies and committments to the EU. Berlusconi is not the factor he once was with only 15% support in the polls, and anti establishment parties opposing public corruption such as Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement appealing to younger people have about 20% support changing the political landscape in Italy. Other factors favoring Italy- a lower level of debt redemption in 2013 of 158 billion euros compared to 200 billion euros for 2012 will lower Italian bond issuance, Italy's primary budget surplus, the Italian economy bottoming out, and credit conditions improving. Year to date Italian bonds have returned 19.5%, and he sees no reason for an exit from Italian bonds. If polls continue to show a committment to the policies introduced by Monti, Italian bonds will continue to be attractive for investors. By setting Italy on the path to restoring and strengthening governance Monti has removed a key element for volatility in Italian bonds.
The collapse of Italy's leading candidate for prime minister in April 2013- Pier Luigi Bersani
12/10/2012
Bersani's PD party leads with about 35% of the vote in polls before elections on Feb 24-25, 2013. A coalition government with centrist parties led by Mario Monti, whose support ranges from 10-14% is one of the possible scenarios. Austerity measures taken by the Monti government in 2012 have adversely affected its support. The business community in Italy and the EU countries support Monti, because of his credibility with financial markets and the need to keep Italy's borrowing costs low.
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One estimate of the loss to the Italian Treasury from tax evasion- through underreporting of income from plumbers to real estate agents and large property owners and other forms of tax evasion- is $340 billion. With the deepening economic crisis the sense of what this is costing the country is beginning to sink in. About 73% of Italians now support the fight against tax evasion being led by the new government of Mario Monti, the former European commissioner. The loss is not only to the Treasury and ability to balance the budget without deficits, this also burdens companies and reduces capital needed for investments in plant, new equipment, and R&D, which create jobs.
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Increase in the value added tax of 1% instead of 2%, and a one percentage point reduction in taxes for low income earners is planned for 2013 by the Monti government in Italy.
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Tax Cheats Become Italyâs Public Enemy
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Italy's borrowing costs went up to 5.7% a week after the July 22, 2011 eurozone debt deal for Greece.
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Italy's new movement which is anti-euro has seen public support go up from 4% in 2011 to 20% in 2012 in opinion polls. This party formed around Grillo's anti-establishment views and corrupt politicians won the election in Parma with little funding. Part of the popularity comes from the austerity measures taken by prime minister Monti, whom he calls "rigor Monti." Grillo supports environmental issues and describes himself as moderately liberal, at the same time he tightly controls this movement. He says his movement is similar to the movement in France of Marie Le Pen which opposes austerity measures and membership in the eurozone.
Grouped Articles
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Grouped Articles
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Elsa Fornero says Italy is not a place where people follow the rules, and there is a strong tendency to rig the system to tweak it in different places to benefit different groups. The last 10 goverments have failed to tackle the Workers Law put in place after the Second World War, which is out of place in today's economy. Which is why the changes she has made are so significant for Italy to regain its competitiveness and its potential, and modernize its economy. This is also one of the major positive outcomes of the current eurozone crisis. Spain has launched a similiar effort. It involves a culture change which would increase productivity and investment. It also shows that while the Merkel Christian Democrats may need to adjust the austeity programs to promote growth, some of the structural changes pushed in Europe including the formation of the Monti government are finally on the right track.
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The head of Italy's statistics agency Istat, says Italy's manufacturing sector has performed quite well, but it is only one sixth of the economy. The larger services sector has suffered from a lack of investment in human capital and information technology, and is performing poorly, leading to larger expected declines in GDP than anticipated of 2.4% in 2012. There is a need to steer education in the direction of new job opportunities. This suggests that more than the changes to labor laws and related changes taken by Monti and Fornero will be needed to revive the Italian economy.
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Short term actions to save the euro taken at the Brussels negotiations on June 28, 2012
01/11/2012
Short term steps Germany agreed to when pushed hard by Italy, Spain and France, include the critical actions to let the European rescue funds to directly buy Italian and Spanish bonds on private markets to drive down bond yields, and provide direct aid to Italian and Spanish banks. The two steps were vital to restore market confidence and necessary if the European project was to be saved. The marathon negotiation stetched for 14 hours with brinksmanship, and were described by prime minister Monti of Italy as "hard and tense" but worth it.
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Efforts by the Monti government to issue more taxi licenses, pharmacy licenses and introduce competition in professional and other sectors protected from competition.
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Italy issued 18 billion euros in bonds in October 2012 at 4.74%, with most of the bonds going to Italian savers. The borrowing costs are down significantly. Italian retail investors have net private wealth of over 8 trillion euros and household wealth is 4 times the GDP, one of the highest in Europe, according to the Bank of Italy. This means most of the interest paid remains inside Italy and is available for consumption and spending. This is a key difference with Spain where households are highly indebted after the housing bubble.
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A Written Plan Can Help Your Portfolio
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