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Spain macroprudential supervision of its banking system once lauded now turns out to be "timid" and false, could the same be true for China?
07/18/2012
Spain's central bank had a reputation of providing good supervision for Spain's banking system. The problems at the Cajas Savings banks and the current assessment after the request for $125 billion in EU funds for Spain's banks shows how this turned out to be false. Does China face a similiar problem with its housing bubble. The U.S., UK and Spain, failed to control and manage the effects of a housing bubble, can China be a lone exception? Rapid growth enabled China to cope with bad loans in the banking system, with slower growth, a weak European market for exports, and a stimulus that is about one eighth the size in annual investment- one trillion yuan over 4 years in the current stimulus compared to 4 trillion over 2009-2010 in the last stimulus plan. Can China manage this bubble, does it have the experience managing this type of problem or has it papered over the problems as Spain did? This has repercussions for industries and countries from the export sector in Germany, Australia and Brazil to industries such as the German automobile industry, and companies such as Caterpillar.
Linked Articles
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
Spain gets an extra year till 2014 to bring budget deficits down to below 3%
07/10/2012
A decline in GDP is leading to lower tax revenues leading to a relaxation of deficit targets. Spain faces an unemployment rate of 27% in 2012
Linked Articles
Euro Zone Eases Budget Demand on Spain
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2012
Spain Braces for Renewed Austerity as Tax Take HemorrhagesUnknown 07/10/2012
The Institute of Supply Management Index for U.S. manufacturing and the Markit Purchasing Management Index for Eurozone manufacturing in June 2012
07/03/2012
The sharp decline in the U.S. and European manufacturing indexes in June 2012 with the slowdown in China and Europe.
Linked Articles
Sluggish Economy Plagues Europe
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2012
Factory Slump Reaches U.S.Wall Street Journal 07/03/2012
Tackling food insecurity in India and Pakistan- use of metal storage containers instead of jute bags or mud silos (2)
06/23/2012
Linked Articles
Hungering for a Solution to Food Losses
Wall Street Journal 12/25/2012
Indian Fiber Weaves a CrisisWall Street Journal 06/23/2012
The muted effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Operation Twist in the second half of 2012
06/21/2012
Monetary policy's diminishing effectiveness in the U.S. in 2012-2013.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2012
What Fed Move Means for Investors - Real-Time Advice - SmartMoneyUnknown 06/21/2012
Germany's distorted national priorities- underinvestment in childcare centers and in wages for childcare and early education teachers
06/06/2012
Melissa Eddy of the NYT provides these two exceptional accounts of Germany's national priorities gone awry as the economic revival takes place in manufacturing, but leaves behind important areas such as early childhood education and child care centers. A lack of investment in the people who form the backbone of the educational system, is one of the forms of the distorted priorities. It may be recorded as the singular lapse of the Merkel administration in the last decade.
Linked Articles
German Child Care Workers’ Strike Brings Debate on Priorities
New York Times 06/05/2015
Germany Considers Subsidies for Non-State Child CareNew York Times 06/06/2012
A recovery in auto sales in the U.S. market to the annual 14 million vehicle level in 2012
06/01/2012
The aging of vehicles to about 10.8 years on average for vehicles on the road in the U.S. is supporting a reovery in the automobile market in 2012. The strong recovery for Japanese automakers in the U.S. is reducing the advantage of American automakers who benefitted from the shortages of Japanese cars after the tsunami in Japan in 2011. The recovery for Japanese automakers is uneven with Toyota doing better than Honda in the U.S.
Linked Articles
May Car Sales Keep Up Healthy Pace
New York Times 06/01/2012
U.S. Auto Sales Keep RisingWall Street Journal 06/02/2012
The glut in the steel industry and China's new Stimulus plans in 2012-2013
05/26/2012
The additional investments in steel production from the Stimulus in 2012- with the accelerated approval of 254 investment projects- will only worsen the glut in steel supplies.
Linked Articles
China’s stimulus policy means trouble down the road - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/31/2012
Steeling for a Chinese SlowdownWall Street Journal 05/26/2012
Spain to inject 9 billion euros into Bankia- analysts estimate the capital hole at Bankia at 25 billion euros
05/21/2012
Analysts estimate the capital requirements at Bankia to cope with 12% nonperforming real estate loans on a 190 billon loan portfolio for BFA-Bankia, and to meet other capital requirements, is 25 billion euros. The Spanish government said it would inject 9 billion euros to recapitalize Bankia in May 2012.
Linked Articles
Limbo on Bankia Undermines Confidence in Spain's Handling of Crisis
Wall Street Journal 05/21/2012
Spain to Recapitalize Bankia in Latest BailoutWall Street Journal 05/24/2012
How JP Morgan Chase let its London trading desk operate without risk management controls leading to large losses
05/18/2012
CEO Dimon is described as distracted by other issues. Ina Drew, the seasoned head of the Chief Investment that manages a $300 billionplus portfolio after the merger of other failed banks into JP Morgan Chase in 2008-2009, contracts Lyme disease in 2010 and is no longer the hands on person when she returns in 2011. Ms. Duersten, in charge of the North American trading desk at the New York office leaves in 2011 after 16 years at Chase. The controls over the London trading desk from New York are slipping away and Mr. Iksil and Mr. Macris of the London trading desk take massive trading positions to expose Chase to large losses. CEO Dimon learns about the Chase trading positions and the London Whale (Mr Iksil) from the Wall Street Journal on April 6, 2012, for the first time, astounding the business community and the financial world.
Linked Articles
Discord at JPMorgan Investment Office Blamed in Huge Loss
New York Times 05/19/2012
Inside J.P. Morgan's BlunderWall Street Journal 05/18/2012
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
Middle aged Americans and the unemployment rate
05/05/2012
About 3.5 million Americans between the ages of 45-64 unemployed as of May 2012, unemployment being higher for middle aged Americans than younger people.
Linked Articles
For Middle-Aged Job Seekers, a Long Road Back
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2012
The incredible shrinking labor force - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/05/2012
Sanford Weill of Citigroup, former U.S. Fed chairman Volcker, and other voices calling for breakup of the biggest banks
04/29/2012
Weill pushed hard to repeal the Glass Steagall Act. He now says the housing bubble and the financial crisis have proved that this was a mistake. He called for a breakup of the biggest banks on July 23, 2012, in comments to CNBC.
Linked Articles
Big-Bank Pioneer Now Seeks Breakup
Wall Street Journal 07/25/2012
Warren Stephens: How Big Banks Threaten Our EconomyWall Street Journal 04/29/2012
Steeper sales decline than the overall auto industry for GM Opel Europe and Ford Europe in 2011-2013
07/13/2012
Conditions and factors driving a steeper sales decline for Opel and Ford in Europe.
Linked Articles
GM Sees Expanded European Losses
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2012
Ford's Europe Sales DiveWall Street Journal 07/13/2012
The Mass at Reims Cathedral in France then and now 50 years later for a lasting reconciliation between France and Germany
07/06/2012
German chancellor Adenauer and French president De Gaulle met at Reims Cathedral in May 1962 The service commemorating the 50th anniversary of that historic meeting and service was held recently. It was an occasion to bring together two leaders with diverging opinions on the eurozone financial crisis, Merkel and Hollande. Their mentors Jacques Delors of France and Helmut Kohl of Germany played an important role in setting up the EU and its institutions.
Linked Articles
Fifty Years Later, a New Chance for Reconciliation
Wall Street Journal 07/06/2012
Germany and France Celebrate Their BondNew York Times 07/08/2012
German finance minister Schauble and chancellor Merkel's acceptance of some shared level of mutual financial support in the Eurozone
06/28/2012
Linked Articles
Germany May Compromise on Joint Debt
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2012
European leaders agree to use bailout fund to help banks - The Washington PostWashington Post 06/29/2012
Mario Monti of Italy and the plans for a sounder monetary union in Europe
06/22/2012
The discussions in Rome between Mario Monti of Italy and the leaders of Germany, France, Spain, at the end of June 2012. Monti as respected mediator between the different sides and positions and the importance of productive discussions to the future of the Euro and the economies of Europe.
Linked Articles
Why Monti, despite Merkel, could prove the euro’s best hope - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/24/2012
Amid crisis, leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Spain meet in Rome - The Washington PostWashington Post 06/22/2012
Stress tests of Spain's banks by consulting firms in June-July 2012
06/20/2012
Linked Articles
Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF
Wall Street Journal 06/22/2012
For Spain, Accusations of Lagging on ReformsNew York Times 06/20/2012
The U.S. May 2012 jobs numbers of 69,000 jobs added and oil prices- reading the numbers correctly
06/04/2012
The mild winter pulled jobs into the Dec-Feb. 2012 period from the March-May 2012 period, overstaing one and understating the other say experts. The drop in U.S. oil prices to $83 on June 1, 2012 should boost disposable income and personal spending acting as an offset to sluggish growth.
Linked Articles
Wonkbook: Don’t read too much into the May jobs numbers - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/04/2012
Technically Speaking, Crude-Oil Prices in TroubleWall Street Journal 06/04/2012
The July 2012 Report by an independent parliamentary panel on the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and prime minister Naoto Kan's testimony
05/28/2012
The report calls the disaster "a profoundly man-made event," and "a disaster 'Made in Japan,' " citing cultural factors that contributed to the accident. It is sharply critical of TEPCO and the Japanese government's response. Both the report and the testimony of the prime minister at the time of the accident, Naoto Kan, refer to the 'nuclear bloc' or 'nuclear village' in Japan that promotes nuclear energy. Some of its actions are dangerous to safety, such as locating the nuclear safety agency NISA inside the same ministry that promotes nuclear power, a critical flaw. Ironically Germany made the decision to make a gradual shift out of nuclear power after looking at the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and near collapse in Japan, while Japan is reactivating its nuclear plants to meet energy needs without having obtained public confidence in the system of nuclear energy including the essential safety actions. The result is a profound credibility gap about the nuclear plant industry, and public opposition in Japan.
Linked Articles
Report blasts Japan’s preparation for, response to Fukushima disaster - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/06/2012
Japan's Ex-Premier, Naoto Kan, Condemns Nuclear PowerNew York Times 05/28/2012
Obama and election advisor Plouffe- responsible governance, Simpson-Bowles and an election imprint on "everything"
05/26/2012
A White House aide says election advisor David Plouffe's influence affected "everything" in the Obama White House. Tom Friedman points to the influence of campaign consultants on the White House as overreaching and pervasive, going so far a to describe the campaign being developed in test tube fashion. Karl Rove pointed to president Obama keeping an eye on reelection 18 months before Nov. 6, 2012, as not a positive development. Friedman specifically mentions president Obama's failure to endorse the Simpson-Bowles commssion on deficit reductions as part of the imprint of election advisors because reducing tax expenditures or deductions might prove politically unpopular. Yet this was part of responsible governance to take on unpopular positions- something other presidents, including Democratic president Truman, did not fail to do choosing instead to educate pubic opiion on difficult steps needing to be taken. Truman took the decisions head on such as confronting the soviets in Greece and other parts of Europe and in Korea after the fall of the Iron Curtain, so soon after a major war when the public was weary of conflict.
Linked Articles
Obama Adviser's Strategy Is High Risk, High Reward
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
President Obama Should Seize the High GroundNew York Times 05/26/2012
Spain's BFA-Bankia Bank estimated capital shortfall of 25 billion euros in 2012
05/21/2012
Before the capital injection of 9 billion euros by the Spanish government in May 2012, estimates of the capital shortfall at Bankia Bank and parent BFA of 25 billion euros.
Linked Articles
Limbo on Bankia Undermines Confidence in Spain's Handling of Crisis
Wall Street Journal 05/21/2012
Spain to Recapitalize Bankia in Latest BailoutWall Street Journal 05/24/2012
Hollande, Ayrault, and "the strong signal to Germany"
05/15/2012
French president Hollande's appointment of Ayrault, a professor of German studies as premier, is seen as "a strong signal to Germany." So is the appointment of a former minister of European Affairs, Muscovici, as finance minster. This sets the tone and groundwork for a closer fiscal and political union in Europe, to provide the foundation for the euro as a common currency in the eurozone. Germany and France now have two leaders whose mentors were strong proponents of European Union, former German chancellor Kohl and former European Commission president Jacques Delours.
Linked Articles
Logic Pushing Europe Toward Greater Integration
New York Times 06/07/2012
Ayrault Named French PremierWall Street Journal 05/15/2012
Criticism of Japan's central bank on the lack of an activist monetary policy to support economic growth 2010-2012
05/07/2012
Shinzo Abe of the LDP, the leading candidate for prime minister after general elections in Dec. 2012, says he will appoint a new central bank chief who supports an activist monetary policy. Abe supports the BOJ setting an inflation target of 2% compared to the 1% under current Bank of Japan chief Shirakawa. Both the governing DPJ and the LDP parties are strongly critical of Shirakawa and prefer to see an activist stance against deflation similiar to the one Ben Bernanke is taking against unemployment in the U.S. Abe returns to power after becoming LDP prime minister following the government of Junichiro Koizumi.
Linked Articles
Vote Challenges Japan's Central Bank
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
Pressure Rises on BOJ to Reach Inflation TargetWall Street Journal 05/07/2012
A consensus in Germany and France for improving France's competitiveness
05/01/2012
A consensus between Germany and France for slightly higher inflation in Germany, increase in German worker's wages, and wage restraint by unions in France in return for avoiding layoffs. This is a way to restore competitiveness of France after the balance was upset when German workers exercized wage restraint during the last decade, leading to France becoming less competitive with higher wages relative to Germany. Hourly wages in France estimated at 34 euros are 14% higher than in Germany.
Linked Articles
Europe Moving Toward Small Steps to Promote Growth
New York Times 05/10/2012
France Moves to Make Labor More FlexibleWall Street Journal 05/01/2012
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