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The Obama administration's $38.6 billon loan program using Stimulus funds was intended to create 65,000 jobs. Two years into this program, with half the money disbursed, the program has created a mere 3,545 new permanent jobs according to Energy Department figures. The Energy Department claims its $5.9 billion loan guarantees to Ford Motor Company to produce energy efficient vehicles by upgrading plants in 5 states saved 33,000 jobs. Brookings Institution analyst, Mark Muro, says the administration appears to be counting all the workers at these plants and not the jobs saved. 33,000 is close to half the Ford hourly and salaried U.S. employees. Harvard Business School professor, Josh Lerner, says there is a tendency to do a lot of fuzzy math in these figures. Muro points to the need to set large expectations for short term political calculations. The Energy Department's own figures show 20 "green tech"companies won loans so far under this project by negotiating with the Energy Department. If these companies hire the people they agreed to they would hire 8,050 new permanent workers. Only 10 of these companies have created or saved jobs so far. Of the other 10 some won loan approval only recently. The whole process is time consuming. Even if the Energy Department were to create the 60,000 jobs under the revised estimate, each job saved or created would come at a cost of 640,000 dollars in loan guarantees. Using the figure of $19.3 billion disbursed 2 years into this program (half of the $38.6 billion) and 8,050 jobs created, would give a cost of $2.4 million in loan guarantees for each job created- an astoundingly high figure. Other factors to consider are the additional jobs created downstream by suppliers to these companies as the administration states, and the cost of loans if as in the case of Solyndra a company goes bankrupt. Solyndra received a loan of over $500 million and represents 3% of loan guarantees. The administration and Congress assumed a failure rate of 5-10% for this program. ...

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Krugman questions the Paul Ryan U.S. budget proposal on several grounds. He says the Ryan proposal depends on projections by the Heritage Foundation for its assumption that the tax cuts would generate higher revenues by creating a booming economy. The Heritage Foundation projection is for revenue increasing by $600 billon over the next 10 years as a result of tax cuts. Krugman cites a different view from the Congressional Budget Office estimate for the Ryan proposal, which shows assumed savings from spending cuts will go not to reduce the deficit but to pay for tax cuts, with bigger deficits in the next decade. He says the spending cuts excluding Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid- but including defense- go down from 12% of GDP in 2011 to 6% of GDP in 2022- meaning that cuts in public services will need to cut to the bone. The Medicare part of Ryan's proposal does not say how spending on medical care will be reduced. The voucher or premium support Ryan envisages is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to cover only one third of the cost of insurance premiums for Medicare equivalent care by 2030. Krugman cites the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which says the Ryan proposal achieves two thirds of its $4 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade by cutting programs that primarily serve low-income Americans. ...

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The company that only a couple of years ago was coming up with new models and among the top names in the cell phone business, is now gasping for air as it struggles to keep its cellphone business alive. It is an example of how vigilant and on ones toes (how paranoid in Andy Grove's words), one has to be in the fast moving tech businesses. Losing its leadership position to Nokia and other rivals like Samsung and LG from South Korea, who had better strategies and newer models, Motorola has never recovered, and the way down has been steep and precipitious. Motorola's cellphone sales fell a huge 51% in the fourth quarter, matching in its magnitude the kind of breathtaking sales drops that have hit GM and Chrysler for January 2009. And things cannot get better when the loss of $595 million for the cellphone division (or $31 for each cellphone shipped), mean cuts in design and other needed staff. Motorola has been closing design centers and has laid off 25% of design staff. In total Motorola posted a loss of $3.58 billion for the 4th quarter 2008. The rest of the losses include writedowns and charges for layoffs of 7000 workers announced since October 2008. Motorola shares trade at $4.04 on the NYSE and Moody's has downgraded it to Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating. ...

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Internet IPO's of unprofitable companies in 2013. Investor interest in these companies.

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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This piece by Cambanis in the NYT shows how even Syrian Free Army soldiers have switched sides to join the ISIS extremist Sunni militia. Sheikh Hassan a Syrian Free Army brigade leader describes the case of Mustafa who switches sides for a higher salary wih ISIS. ISIS gave Mustafa triple his salary at the Free Syrian Army - increasing it to $400. In a region with many unemployed youth the ISIS pays salaries for joining, and taps Sunni frustrations in Iraq, with money raising and financing capabilities a critical part of the organization's capabilities. A piece by Nordland shows how the ISIS's crude but effective money raising uses taxes and other illicit ways to increase revenues. This provides a unique insight into what is happening in Iraq and Syria after the failure of the U.S. to effecively support the Free Syrian Army and moderate groups in Syria, the premature withdrawal from Iraq, and the frustrations of Sunnis built up under the government of prime minister Maliki openly favoring Shiites. This has provided an opening for extremist groups in the region, and created more tangles for the Obama administration as its policies to distance itself from the region have not let it extricate itself from the U.S.'s important role in the region. The vacuum created by these policies has been filled by extremist organizations and created about 2 million refugees- a large humanitarian crisis and undone years of effort by U.S. soldiers in Iraq. ...

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Japan's regulatory structure for the nuclear power industry is weak because of the dual role played by the regulator- Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. It regulates the nuclear power industry, and also promotes Japanese nuclear technology in Japan and overseas. The tasks are separated in the U.S. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission supervises nuclear plants in the U.S. It is independent of the Department of Energy which does research and promotes nuclear power. An earlier effort to correct this dual role arrangement in Japan failed, when an independent Nuclear Safety Commission was created under the cabinet. This body was never given the authority to inspect companies and mandate changes. A body that supports the commission has 4000 scientists and staff. It does research in nuclear technologies, but it has ended up becoming nothing more than a think tank, in the words of a former commission deputy chairman. What makes this situation worse, is the practice of amakudari, or "descent from heaven," a practice in Japan where senior Ministry officials retire young and take up positions in the private sector at companies like Tokyo Electric Power Company. In recent years most of the retired officials have taken positions in the energy sector. In fact Japan's Bar association investigated problems after a 2007 earthquake that shutdown a TEPCO nuclear plant. It recommended an independent regulator. The Democratic Party of Japan supported this idea before taking power in 2009. ...

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Research by Chief Marketing Officer Farley's research team found that Americans associate Ford with "on sale", "American" and of being"powerful", attributes that don't help Ford much in being loved by car buyers. What Farley wants car buyers to see in Ford is "Quality, Green, Safe and Smart." And that is where Ford is headed in its marketing campaign. Farley is from Toyota and knows a thing or two about saying the same thing that the dealers are saying. All of Ford advertising will be coordinated so dealers and Ford say the same thing. The new advertising campaign will focus on the line "Ford. Drive One" a line that Mullaly likes because he likes to say at every opportunity "Have you Driven a Ford Lately," another of the older Ford lines. Its about getting buyers to look at Ford. The new campaign was presented to the Board recently by Farley and takes Ford in a new direction It makes sense as it made sense for Toyota, to have a clear message, a clear idea about what you stand for and what people to think of you, and to say it with one voice whether dealers, or Ford the company in Dearborn, Michigan, or other Ford related organization. The 4000 Ford dealers will now have hands on discussions with Dearborn about what they are seeing and what should go into the advertising and monitor the progress as this effort which may go on for several years takes place....

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Interview with Levinson of Genentech and answers to a wide range of questions about ther drug discovery process at Genentech, the cost of Avastin to treat cancer, the long years taken to develop the drug, the development and pricing of Lucentis for macular degeneration from the basic process of blocking the VEGF protein that helps the macular degeneration develop. The reasons for the pricing of Avastin- $55,000 for one year. And of Lucentis $2000 for one shot and the possible equivalence of Avastin and Lucentis so that doctors can take a small fractional dose of Avastin and use it in a tiny opthalmic syringe for cost of $50. The research budget of $1.86 billion. And the philosophy of Levinson about attracting the best scientists to Genentech by giving them opportunities as he puts it for "doing great science." And his emphasis on making Genentech a great place to work. Genentech was on Fortune's top twenty list 4 years in a row and No 1 in 2007 and No 2 in 2008 behind Google. Can Roche keep this up without Levinson and his team and the culture they have fostered, and the way they have created a great place to work ? ...

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1. ACCELERATION OF DECLINING PRODUCTION FROM GULF OF MEXICO AS DRILLING RIGS LEAVE THE GULF. Offshore oil production mostly in the Gulf fell by 19% between 2003 and 2005. Natural gas production fell by about 22% from 2001 to 2004, according to EIA. The drilling rigs jack-up rigs and deep-water rigs that drill for oil and gas are declining rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. There were 148 rigs in 2001, now only 90 remain with more leaving soon. Many of the rigs that are leaving are jack-up rigs, used for drilling for natural gas in shallower waters, and this should lead to a pronounced effect on natural gas production. Gulf Gas reservoirs that use these jack-up rigs are quickly exhausted requiring new wells to be drilled to just maintain production. Fewer rigs available mean upward pressure on natural gas prices more so than oil because gas is a market supplied locally. EIA estimates natural gas will move from recent close (July 5, 2006) of $6.10 per million BTU's to a price of $10.00 by end of 2007. This compares with a price in 2001 of $2.43. Hurrican related disruptions pushed oil prices up by $10 a barrel for hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in each of two years, so there will be continued upward pressure on oil price from this acceleration in production declines in the Gulf. 2. SEA CHANGE IN THE OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG MARKET, IN DAY RATES, IN PREFERRED DRILLING LOCATIONS, AND IN RIG PRODUCTION. The hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 5 rigs. What is a bigger effect is that drilling companies are signing longterm deals with companies overseas. Global Santa Fe Corp. for instance signed a deal last month to send 4 jack-up rigs to Saudi Aramco at $160,000 per day, for 4 years. Ensco International will send one to Tunisia at rates approaching $200,000 for 2 years. There are hotter prospects for petroleum offshore in the Middle east, and in Africa, whereas the easier drilling spots in the Gulf have already been tapped. Worldwide 91 major offshore rigs are under construction compared to 10 in 2003 according to ODS-Petrodata. The new rigs may take till 2009 and may have delays so as to come out after 2009. They cost $160-190 million for one jack-up rig and about $600 million for one deep-water rig. All this has pushed day rates throug the roof. BP PLC agreed to pay Transocean Inc $520,000 a day for three years for a massive drill ship. The same ship cost BP PLC $185,000 a day in 2004. The drilling ship is as large as 3 football fields and can drill in oceans upto 10,000 feet deep. ...

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Shiller says that his CAPE ratio for the U.S. stands at above 25 in 2014, from 23 in 2013, above the 20th century average of 15.21. He looks at possible reasons for the CAPE remaining above 20 for long period of about 20 years, except when it dropped to 13 following the 2008 financial crisis. CAPE is similiar to the price earnings ratio except it uses the average of the last 10 years earnings. Reasons he gives are low interest rates, high bond prices, Fed policy, and the lack of alternative investments in a low interest rate environment that puts more money into the stock market in the U.S.

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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The Ifo Institute's Hans-Werner Sinn presents the German view on bailouts for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. He says that socializing of debt was proved to be a bad idea even in the U.S. experience when eight states and territories were allowed to go bankrupt in the 1830's and 1840's, and even though California is close to being bankrupt no one suggests socializing the debt. The European Economic Advisory Group has favored short term assistance and liquidity assistance but not aid for insolvency. Bundesbank assistance for international shift of refinancing credit, also called Target credit, is estimated at $874 billion, since 2007. Greece and Portugal current account deficits were financed using this. ECB purchase of government bonds $250 billion, and $500 billion in rescue programs from the IMF, and additional help from the European rescue funds such as EFSF. Sinn says Germany would lose $1.35 trillion if the euro fails. If Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain go bankrupt and repay nothing, and the euro survived, Germany would have lost $899 billion by his estimates. He responds to critics by saying that the Marshall Plan gave Germany 0.5% of GDP for 4 years, or 2% in total, or about $5 billion today if taken as 2% of Greek GDP....

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Large food and beverage companies are seeing established brands sales decline as newer organic and health conscious brands increase market share. The 25 largest food company sales declined to 45.1% of food industry sales of $418 billion in 2014, declining by 4.3% since 2009. Smaller brands increased share from 32.1% to 35.3%. The more health conscious brands have seen tremendous growth, Granola bar company KindLLC increased share from 0.5% share of the snack bar market to about 6% in 2015, according to Bernstein Research. Chobani Inc. reached $1 billion in sales in 5 years. Kroger and other big supermarket chains are responding to consumer demand for buying local, buying from boutique producers, and buying from health conscious producers, by supporting these brands with marketing strategy, flavor selection, package size, and other ways, so that Kroger can carry their products on its shelves. FlapJacked pancake mix from a small Colorado company was introduced at Kroger's King Soopers chain in that state, and then taken to 500 Kroger stores in the U.S. For chains such as Kroger and Winn-Dixie in the southern U.S., it is critical to stay ahead of changing consumer preferences, especially now that eating right and eating healthy, and looking for alternatives, is changing the marketplace. ...

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Senator Lamar Alexander is a kind of misssionary for electric cars and for a major push with government assistance in this area. A bill sponsored by Alexander and Senator Byron Dorgan plans to designate 5 to15 urban areas as model locations for electric car use. These areas would get money for infrastructure such as recharging stations, and people in the areas would get an additional tax credit to take the tax credit from $7,500 to $10,000. The bill has important provisions for promoting research at companies and universities to improve electric car batteries. $1.5 billion would be allocated for research in electric car batteries, and a $10 million prize for the person or company able to build a battery with a 500 mile range. The total cost- $10 billion.

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How inflation is affecting people who thought themselves to be in the middle class like postal workers and teachers and public sector emplyees. Wages are stagnant in many parts of the European economy as inflation picks up and the price of basic necessities like bread and fueling the family car cost more as the year progresses. A study by the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin finds that the broad middle of the German workforce defined as workers earning 70 to 150% of the median income shrunk to 54% of the population in 2007 from 62% in 2000. Something is clearly going on with wages not keeping up with inflation and it does not look good just as a global slowdown that started in the USA is affecting the rest of the world. In Britain striking teachers closed schools as proposed wage raises of 2.5% were not enough to meet the rising cost of living, with food up 7% and oil up 20% since this time last year. German workers have already staged a series of strikes for a greater share in the increased wealth after years of making concessions and the mood in Germany is that a lot of the senior business people are making too much at the expense of workers who are being asked to sacrifice too much....

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Interesting when 53 economists were surveyed by the WSJ 51% attributed the rising fuel prices to demand from China and India, only 15% attribute it to supply constraints, and 15% attribute it to foreign exchange issues and 11% attribte it to speculation. That is that 3 times as many economists think demand from China and India is the culprit compared to supply constraints, and twice as many economists think foreign exchange speculation and central bank issues are the cause than supply constraints. Why? Once you remove this outsize demand from China and moderate the growth there then the supply constraint does not become so critical. In previous years declining prices made exploration less attractive or the fact that price was not stable going up and then coming down making it difficult to invest based on a stable return. Now the basic component of additional energy for countries like India and China's people increasing demands could be accomodated within existing and new supplies coming onstream, without the red hot demand component of growth rates at above 10% and close to 10% in India and China exacerbating prices upto some current estimates of $200 per barrel. In effect the price spikes would reverse the demand growth, and the essential needs of more people needing everything from electricity and fuel and gasoline to improve living standards in China and India at a moderate pace would prevent oil prices from falling to levels that make aggressive search for new oil finds and increased production from more difficult locations unattractive. This would correct the previous imbalance where exploration at low prices near $30 or $40 a barrel and uncertain price levels made for little new exploration while consumers were on a consumption binge in the use of gasoline which created this present situation. And in future oil at sustainable price levels would make it easier to meet the needs of poorer people in countries like China and India as more aggressive growth resumes at some future date after this expected worldwide slowdown. So correcting the previous and current imbalances helps to create a better situation in the future to better meet the hopes and expectations of millions of people in the developing countries for better nutrition, better electricity supplies and other needs of modern living....

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What changed asks the Economist between the summer when the stimulus was petering out and analysts sniffed deflation for 2011, and today with the euphoria for stock markets and estimates of 4% growth for 2011? Much of the reason for the change is a second round of quantitiative easing for $600 billon announced by the Fed- buying bonds with newly created money to push down rates and stimulate lending. And the December 2010 compromise for across the board extension of the Bush tax cuts. But even though this improves the prospects for 2011, the situation after that is still in the medium term as treacherous as ever, even more so, says the Economist. High interest rates and shaky business confidence can be fixed with strong stimulus, but households and banks have to work off the excessive debt taken on in the last decade. And this deveraging has years to go. So expect more difficult patches where investor euphoria quickly turns to gloom. One other aspect of the current situation is worrisome. The bipartisan deal for the Bush tax cuts was not real bipartisanship, as each side agreed to the others huge giveaways. Real bipartisanship must mean more painful decisions in spending and taxes. The US government's failure to sort out its finances will continue to cast a shadow over the future of the economy....