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The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations

New York Times Original article ›

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Shiller says that his CAPE ratio for the U.S. stands at above 25 in 2014, from 23 in 2013, above the 20th century average of 15.21. He looks at possible reasons for the CAPE remaining above 20 for long period of about 20 years, except when it dropped to 13 following the 2008 financial crisis. CAPE is similiar to the price earnings ratio except it uses the average of the last 10 years earnings. Reasons he gives are low interest rates, high bond prices, Fed policy, and the lack of alternative investments in a low interest rate environment that puts more money into the stock market in the U.S.

Shiller on why the U.S. CAPE ratio of 25 in 2014 has remained above 20 for most of the last 20 years

08/16/2014

He cites low interest rates, high bond prices, Fed policy, and lack of alternative investments as possible reasons for the high CAPE ratio levels in most of the last 20 years.

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The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations

New York Times 08/16/2014

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