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The Obama admnistration and the conflict in Syria
08/28/2012
A brief history shows the Alawite community constitutes about 13% of the population in Syria and live mainly in the coastal region near the Mediterranean. Under the French Alawites generally supported the colonial regime and the community was used by the French colonial regime to act as a buffer as they ruled a predominantly Sunni population. The Alawites joined the military and Hafez Assad, an Alawite general, seized control in 1971. His son now rules Syria. The Obama administration has largely missed the struggle of the people for freedom from dictatorships in Syria and Egypt under Mubarak.. With Turkey and Egypt supporting the young people in Syria, the U.S. investment is minor in military and other support compared to the cost of letting the war continue with unintended consequences for the entire region.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/13/2012
Assad Draws Shock Troops From Elite Sect in SyriaWall Street Journal 08/28/2012
Ireland sees hope in the June 28, 2012 EU deal for direct aid from the European rescue fund to banks
06/29/2012
Ireland is the only country that took on all the debt of its banks during the eurozone financial crisis. This makes the June 28 deal a particularly helpful sign for Ireland to reduce its debt load.
Linked Articles
In Ireland, Hope of Retroactive Relief
Wall Street Journal 06/29/2012
European leaders agree to use bailout fund to help banks - The Washington PostWashington Post 06/29/2012
Lenovo's focus on emerging markets and its in-house manufacturing help it gain second place in the PC industry worldwide 2012-2013
05/29/2012
Lenovo is emerging as China's global brand with a large presence in China and India, the two fastest growing markets.
Linked Articles
As Rivals Outsource, Lenovo Keeps Production In-House
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
PC Firm Lenovo Hunts For Brazil AcquisitionsWall Street Journal 05/29/2012
Span's Cajas Savings bank, problems with managment and culture, lack of financial controls, and the large losses from the real estate bubble
05/24/2012
Bankia was the new name for seven troubled cajas savings banks that were merged. The failure of the government's handling of the bad real estate debt, the collapse of the IPO price for bankia's IPO, and the insovency followed by takeover of Bankia by the government, is what led to the $125 recapitalization request by Spain to the EU. The cajas in Galicia give an insight into the operation of these savings banks, in many cases run by leaders who became influential in the political system and expanded healvily int real estate during the bubble years. Management remained in place for decades with authoritarian leaders and there were no financial controls.
Linked Articles
Clash of Cultures Upends Spain's Cajas
New York Times 08/20/2012
Spain to Recapitalize Bankia in Latest BailoutWall Street Journal 05/24/2012
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
Two different pictures of the American consumer- real spending up 2.3% in the 1st quarter 2012 and yet a thin cushion of reserves say researchers
03/29/2012
Lower utility bills from lower natural gas prices and the offset from higher fuel efficiency of newer automobiles help push consumer spending slightly higher in the face of gasoline at average $3.92 per gallon in April 2012. Yet the cushion for American consumers remains weak say researchers at Stanford and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2012
How to Build Buzz for Bud: More Alcohol, Lime-a-RitaWall Street Journal 03/29/2012
Turkey and the move to democracy in the Middle East
02/17/2012
Linked Articles
Turkey Steps Up to the Assad Challenge
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2012
Tunisia Islamists Test Ideas Decades in the MakingNew York Times 02/17/2012
The views of Condoleeza Rice and Vladimir Putin on Russia's evolution through democratic processes
02/09/2012
Rice points out that diversification of the economy away from oil utilizing Russian technological capabilities will help Russia move away from the corruption of a resource based economy and build a healthy democratic setup. Putin says he recognizes the need for democratic processes to keep pace with the development of civil society and the growing middle class, but emphasizes that democracy cannot be built overnight, and places a higher priority on what he calls the "sovereignty of the people," the right to work, the right to education and free medical care.
Linked Articles
How Russia’s urban middle class can bring an end to Putinism - The Washington Post
Washington Post 03/09/2012
Vladimir Putin: My vision for a better Russia - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2012
The importance of long term bond buyers to restoring confdence in Italian and Spanish government bonds in 2012-2013
12/02/2011
Large institutional buyers such as insurance companies and pension funds have exited the market for Italian and Spanish government bonds creating a great deal of instability in the market and pushing up yields as aresult fo the fear factor. The need for the ECB to take up large scale purchase of bonds to induce these longterm buyers to return to the market and restore a measure of confidence. The June 28 summit authorized the rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM or EFSF) to make these purchases, but experts say it has only 248 billion euros and needs to go back to markets for additional funding.
Linked Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
A Euro Crisis Deal EmergesWall Street Journal 12/02/2011
The beginning of a negotiated settlement of the Afghan conflict through direct talks with the Taliban in 2012
11/13/2011
America's veteran diplomat, Richard Holbrooke- who is known for the Dayton Accords that settled the conflict in Yugoslavia-initiated the early efforts for a negotated settlement with all the warring factions including the Taliban, the ISI and the Pakistan military. After his death in 2010, these efforts were continued by Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey. The Taliban's willingness to open an office in Qatar and the willingness of all sides to talk directly opens the path to a negotiated settlement.
Linked Articles
Against Odds, Path Opens Up for U.S.-Taliban Talks
New York Times 01/11/2012
Book review: ‘The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/13/2011
Declining prospects for emerging markets in 2012-2013.
09/22/2011
Brazil, India, China and Russia face slowing growth in 2012-2013.
Linked Articles
Brazil's Economic Growth Falters
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2012
Beware Building Up the BRICsWall Street Journal 09/22/2011
The household credit boom in Turkey and unsustainable credit to GDP ratios in 2010-2013
09/21/2011
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
Mexico's failures in introducing competition in the economy and addressing problems in education that restrict its growth potential 2011-2015
08/27/2011
The need for competition and other private sector involvement in sectors such as oil, telecom, airlines and other sectors, and the reform of labor laws that reduce GDP growth by an estimated 2.5%. The Mexican educational system suffers from a lack of trained teachers and change is blocked by a powerful union leading to poorly educated workers from the public educational system.
Linked Articles
Mexico’s economy: Making the desert bloom
Economist 08/27/2011
Mexico’s failing schools spell defeat for ruling party - The Washington PostWashington Post 06/09/2012
Friedman, Avraham Burg and Morsi- on the way forward for moving beyond the intractable to the possible in the Middle East
08/04/2012
The democracy movement in the Middle East and the yearning for economc and political participation of the people of the Middle East creates new opportunities to move forward beyond the conflicts of the past to a better future for the people of the Middle East. The role of leaders in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle Eastern countries of Egypt, Turkey and the newly democratic states in this region in setting new goals and plans and rising up to the challenges.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/24/2012
Israel's Fading DemocracyNew York Times 08/04/2012
Turkey, the U.S. and cluster bombs in Syria
06/28/2012
The U.S. stands by and takes a passive approach to artillery attacks on civilian populations and cluster bombs. Was some measure of respect lost in the process. The potential for a role with minimal cost of a no fly zone that could have prevented the air raids on civilians.
Linked Articles
Turkey Steps Up to the Assad Challenge
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2012
Syria Uses Cluster Bombs to Attack as Many Civilians as PossibleNew York Times 12/20/2012
The importance of vocational training in cities like Dayton, Ohio, with historically low college graduation rates
05/28/2012
These cities are being squeezed by high unemployment and declining incomes from lower paid manufacturing jobs. This makes college education more elusive than ever, and much worse so with the over $1 trillion in college debt in the U.S with spiralling cost of higher education. Vocational training in higher paid fields for families that cannot afford college and children who are not likely to go to college, is the only way not to leave behind a generation of growing children behind in these cities. It is an issue of the utmost importance for renewing America's smaller cities that do not have the advantages of San Francisco, Washington D.C. and Raleigh, S. Carolina, with their advanced university and technology hubs and access to finance.
Linked Articles
As College Graduates Cluster, Some Cities Are Left Behind
New York Times 05/30/2012
It’s time to drop the college-for-all crusade - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/28/2012
Alexei Kudrin and other experts see the potential for a deep economic and political crisis in Russia as the situation in the eurozone worsens
05/23/2012
The Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow was prescient in predicitng political dissatisfaction before parliamentary elections. The former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and set aside reserves in the sovereign wealth fund to cope with the crisis. Both now see the potential for a worsening economic and political situation in Russia as Greece nears exit from the eurozone and the banking crisis in Europe leads to reduced loans to Russia. At the same time the political polarization in Russia between pro and anti Putin factions creates other tensions.
Linked Articles
Report Says Support for Putin Is Dropping
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2012
Russian Recession Could Prompt Political Woes, Report SaysNew York Times 05/24/2012
Paul Volcker, the traders at JP Morgan's London office, and "losses that would be socialized with the potential gains all private"
05/12/2012
Volcker described the situation to the U.S. Senate Banking committee the day before the story came out about the massive trades made by JP Morgan's trader, known as the "London whale." Losses would be socialized under "too big to fail" for the largest U.S. banks.
Linked Articles
Paul Volcker vs. JPMorgan’s London Whale - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/12/2012
'London Whale' Rattles Debt MarketWall Street Journal 05/13/2012
Greece's long delayed bond swap with European banks of March 9, 2012
03/09/2012
The bond swap of new bonds with long maturities reflecting a writedown of 53.5% for the old bonds with short maturities was finally achieved on March 9, 2012. By this time Greece's economy was shrinking badly and the new bonds were trading at levels that reflected the need for further writedowns only days after the deal. Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. John Taylor at Stanford say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning to delay writedowns for as long as possible. The effects on the eurozone of the delays in tackling the problem early and decisively are negative or slowing growth and is likely to hurt the banks operating in that environment, raising questions about the wisdom of that strategy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/09/2012
Greece Passes Key Debt TestWall Street Journal 03/09/2012
The Indian government's plan to bring the deficit down over 5 years to 3% in 2017
02/14/2012
In response to the policy of the Reseve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to hold off on interest rate changes till the government takes action in reducing the deficit, the Indian government lays out a plan to bring the deficit down to 3% by 2017, and 5.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2013. The government is under pressure to come up with an economic strategy to deal with the slowing economy with growth forecasts lowered to 5-6.5% for 2012. The risk of India's credit rating being being lowered to junk status and drastic slowdown in foreign investment is creating a crisis atmosphere after a period of indecison.
Linked Articles
India Lays Out Deficit Targets
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Sberbank's dominant position in Eastern Europe after withdrawal by Western European banks
12/13/2011
Russia's Sberbank acquires the Eastern European operations of Volksbank of Austria.
Linked Articles
Sberbank Looks to Buy Banks in Eastern Europe
New York Times 04/13/2012
Europe's Banks Retreat From the EastWall Street Journal 12/13/2011
Efforts by Republicans in the House of Representatives to develop bipartisan solutions to the U.S. deficit crisis
11/17/2011
Efforts of Super Committee members Hensarling, Toomey and the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Dave Camp to negotiate a bipartisan solution. This follows the failed efforts of Republicans Boehner, Cantor and McConnell in 2011 to reach a negotiated deal with the Democrats in Congress. Camp is taking a patient approach and has shown the ability to navigate different personalities in the U.S. Congress as he works on a solution to the deficit.
Linked Articles
Rep. Dave Camp patiently pursues tax reform - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/29/2012
GOP supercommittee members’ tax plan gives party an identity crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/17/2011
Unsustainable consumer credit booms in Turkey and S. Korea 2010-2013
10/27/2011
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
Risks in emerging markets 2012-2013- Brazil
09/13/2011
A sea of liquidity undermines prospects in emerging markets such as Brazil and Turkey.
Linked Articles
Brazil's Economic Growth Falters
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2012
Dark Side of Brazil's RiseWall Street Journal 09/13/2011
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