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How the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership Agreement (TPP) fell apart- (3) most of the gains in trade already behind us and the shift in priorities to infrastructure development
02/27/2014
Linked Articles
Pacific Trade Pact Revives Ghosts of Nafta Jobs Fight
Wall Street Journal 04/24/2015
No Big DealNew York Times 02/27/2014
Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation
01/17/2014
Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.
Linked Articles
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker SaysWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Airbus shift away from Europe and German government financing after increasing publicly traded shares to 72%
06/16/2013
Linked Articles
Airbus Vows to Fly With Own Wings
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Airbus on Track to Double Profit Margin by 2015Wall Street Journal 06/16/2013
Russia's central banker Elvira Nabiullina, the ruble and central bank policies
03/12/2013
A central banker, former economy minister, who led Russia's changes for entry into the World Trade Organization, and policies to stabilize the ruble and Russia's economy during the emerging markets crisis of 2014.
Linked Articles
Putin Taps Pro-Market Economist as Banker
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble SlideWall Street Journal 01/30/2014
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's activist interest rate policies to tackle high unemployment and central bankers from MIT
12/12/2012
A pragmatic activist focus in economic thinking shaped at the MIT economics department in Cambridge, Masachusetts. The ECB's Mario Draghi, Bank of England's Mervyn King, and Bernanke shaped their thinking at MIT. Draghi and Bernanke had the same PhD. advisor- Stanley Fischer. Factors calling for a pragmatic approach include the lack of political agreement on th deficit, the housing and foreclosure crisis effects, higher inequality and unemployment effects on the middle class, the effects of the globalized economy on working class manufacturing jobs, people dropping out of the labor foce, and lower inflation, which called for a larger focus on unemployment. Bernanke emphasized the "enormous waste in human potential and productive resources of the economy" throughout 2009-2012. Draghi emphasized the abnormal nature of excessive borrowing interest rates for Italy and Spain during the ECB's bond buying efforts in 2011-2012. Both efforts had a stabilizing effect on the economies of the U.S. and Europe during a period of political discord about future policy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
New leadership and old faces, Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping, and the uncertain outlook for change in China
11/15/2012
Jiang Zemin, 86 years and former president, who set China on the three decade push for modernization, put his imprint on the seven member Politburo Standing Committee that runs China. Jinping and five other members of the Politburo are close allies of Jiang Zemin. Zemin was Mayor of Shanghai, China's business capital during the Koumintang pre war regime and now in the post war period. He made some of the reforms that led to China's entry into the World Trade Organization and its subsequent rise as a major trading nation. His support for Jinping gives the new president room for making political and economic changes that are needed in this period. The older members of the Politburo, most in the mid-60's, placed on the Politburo by Zemin are likely to be cautious and the outlook for change is uncertain.
Linked Articles
Xi Jinping Offers Few Hints of a Shift in Direction in China
New York Times 11/15/2012
Ex-Leader Wins in Beijing Power PlayWall Street Journal 11/16/2012
The CEO statement of Oct 2012 calling for action to tackle deficit reduction with tax increases as part of broader reforms
10/26/2012
The CEO statement of Oct 2012 as a pro-growth initiative and not simply a tax increase that does little for setting up a strong economic recovery in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2012
Pete Domenici and Sam Nunn: Building a better ‘fiscal cliff’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 10/27/2012
The role of jobs in the auto industry and free trade with the U.S. in building Mexico's middle class
10/02/2012
Linked Articles
In Mexico, auto industry fuels middle class - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/02/2012
Middle-class Mexicans snap up more products ‘Made in U.S.A.’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 10/02/2012
President Hollande's declining popularity in France after only 6 months in office
09/28/2012
A $26 billion tax rebate for business and a budget that pushes quickly for reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 lead to growing unpopularity across the spectrum of opinion from the left, centre and right for France's new president Hollande.
Linked Articles
France’s Hollande struggles to regain popularity - The Washington Post
Washington Post 11/15/2012
France's New Budget Focuses on Cutting DeficitNew York Times 09/28/2012
Bob Woodward and Bill Keller on U.S. president Obama's failure in economic decisionmaking and reaching an agreement on the deficit
09/07/2012
Linked Articles
New York Times 03/03/2013
Notable & QuotableWall Street Journal 09/07/2012
Romney, Camp, Ryan and the outlines of an approach to the U.S. deficit and the U.S. tax code
08/12/2012
Linked Articles
George Will: Romney’s presidential pick - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/13/2012
Dave Camp: Is Tax Reform Politically Possible?Wall Street Journal 08/12/2012
The slow response of Spain compared to the more aggressive aproach of France
07/18/2012
The contrast between Spain's lack of strong and quick action for its banking problems and France's aggressive approach to its debt problem. Spain's problems come from the housing bubble and bad loans in parts of the banking sector especially the cajas savings banks. The lack of strong and early action by bank supervisors at the central bank and the government to cleanup the banks created conditions requiring a bailout. The problems in France which did not experience a housing bubble were the result of slow growth, rising debt and deficits. France took an aggressive approach to tackle these problems, with shared sacrifices, and setting a goal of bringing the deficit down to 3% in 2013 with its 2013 budget.
Linked Articles
France's New Budget Focuses on Cutting Deficit
New York Times 09/28/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
Obama and election advisor Plouffe- responsible governance, Simpson-Bowles and an election imprint on "everything"
05/26/2012
A White House aide says election advisor David Plouffe's influence affected "everything" in the Obama White House. Tom Friedman points to the influence of campaign consultants on the White House as overreaching and pervasive, going so far a to describe the campaign being developed in test tube fashion. Karl Rove pointed to president Obama keeping an eye on reelection 18 months before Nov. 6, 2012, as not a positive development. Friedman specifically mentions president Obama's failure to endorse the Simpson-Bowles commssion on deficit reductions as part of the imprint of election advisors because reducing tax expenditures or deductions might prove politically unpopular. Yet this was part of responsible governance to take on unpopular positions- something other presidents, including Democratic president Truman, did not fail to do choosing instead to educate pubic opiion on difficult steps needing to be taken. Truman took the decisions head on such as confronting the soviets in Greece and other parts of Europe and in Korea after the fall of the Iron Curtain, so soon after a major war when the public was weary of conflict.
Linked Articles
Obama Adviser's Strategy Is High Risk, High Reward
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
President Obama Should Seize the High GroundNew York Times 05/26/2012
The Pacific Alliance Trade Agreement of 2014 and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)- why trade in the Pacific Latin American region is free, and a badly needed focus for infrastructure and productivity
02/11/2014
Linked Articles
Latin Countries Forge Trade Accord With Eyes on Asia
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2014
No Big DealNew York Times 02/27/2014
China PBOC's efforts in early 2014 to slow and slightly reverse appreciation of the yuan and have it trade in a 2% up or down trading range
12/10/2013
PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency in 2014 by slightly lowering its value, with plans to widen the trading range up or down by 2%. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% in 2013.
Linked Articles
China Intervenes to Lower Yuan
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Brawny Yuan Stands Apart from the CrowdWall Street Journal 12/10/2013
The common challenges facing Pakistan's elected democratic government and its military leaders in modernizing the economy
05/18/2013
A new dynamic is taking hold in South Asia even as Indian officials remain skeptical. China's prime minister Li Keqiang visits India with a trade delegaton and sees trade reaching $100 billion a year between the two countries and growing rapidly. Pakistan's military and civilian leaders also see the urgency for modernizing the economy and building infrastructure as Pakistan begins to catchup with its neighbors in Asia.
Linked Articles
Pakistan army chief meets incoming prime minister in ‘good omen’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/20/2013
In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nationâs TroublesNew York Times 05/18/2013
CBO projections in Jan 2014 show the U.S. debt stabilizing at 74% of GDP in 2014 and deficits below 3% for 2014-2017
12/16/2012
Higher economic growth of about 3% for 2014-2017 and the phasing out of spending to counter the effects of the severe recession of 2008-2010, have helped the U.S. stabilize debt levels and reduce deficits. After 2018 the long range projections show debt to GDP climbing to reach 79% in 2024.
Linked Articles
CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
Unknown 02/05/2014
That Terrible TrillionNew York Times 12/16/2012
Krugman and Altman- Differing views on taxes, deficits and inequality
11/18/2012
Linked Articles
To Reduce Inequality, Tax Wealth, Not Income
New York Times 11/18/2012
The Twinkie ManifestoNew York Times 11/18/2012
The dealmaking that is needed to build an agreement on deficit reduction- the challenge for Obama and Republicans
11/10/2012
The need for Obama and Republicans to build on proposals by Romer, Simpson-Bowles, Toomey, Hensarling, Feldstein, Romney Conrad and others to put dealmaking ahead of futile ideological battles. This would be good for the country and good for jobs and growth, good for building a strong middle class economy.
Linked Articles
Budget Showdown Offers an Opportunity for Progress
New York Times 11/10/2012
Obama the DealmakerNew York Times 11/12/2012
Pete Domenici's call for tackling the "fiscal cliff" and the CEO statement of October 2012
10/25/2012
Two initiatives, Strengthening America led by Pete Domenici of the Domenici-Rivlin commisson, and Fix the Debt which organized the CEO's statement of Oct. 2012, support a bipartisan movement that would address the tough challenges of deficit reduction without simply kicking the can down the road. Both initiatives look to the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations as the basis of tackling the problem.
Linked Articles
Pete Domenici and Sam Nunn: Building a better ‘fiscal cliff’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/27/2012
CEOs Call for Deficit ActionWall Street Journal 10/25/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
Indian prime minister Singh's economic plan in the face of slowing growth in 2012
09/21/2012
In a televised address Singh says the market opening measures for the retail and other sectors are needed to maintain growth and foreign investment. Finance minister Chidambaram tells the WSJ in an Oct 2012 interview- the risks were too great with India facing a lowering of its credit rating, and the government having reflected on the serious consequences of not acting spelled out in the worst case scenario of the Kelkar committee report. The Indian government actions include lowering diesel subsidies and action to control the deficit, with a plan to bring it down to 3% by 2017.
Linked Articles
Q&A With Finance Minister Chidambaram
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2012
Singh Appeals to India to Support His MeasuresNew York Times 09/21/2012
How keeping seniors as a protected class in current Social Security proposals impacts the young and leads to shrinking investments in defense, social programs, research, education and infrastructure
08/16/2012
This includes the Republican Paul Ryan proposal which also stays away from touching Social Security for today's seniors and passes on the costs to the young. Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue. Samuelson cites CBO estimates which show that even with shrinking defense and nondiscretionary spending by a third the U.S. deficit would still be 6.75% of GDP in 2023.
Linked Articles
Robert Samuelson: Ryan’s budget asks nothing of the elderly -; unfortunately - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/16/2012
Mr. Biden falls flat - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/16/2012
The costly software failure that cost U.S. brokerage house Knight Capital $440 million with erroneous orders on August 1, 2012
08/02/2012
Software that was introduced without proper testing by management at Knight Capital resulted in a blizzard of wrong orders going out on August 1. This led to suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange after identifying Knight Capital as the source.
Linked Articles
Trying to be Nimble Knight Capital Stumbles
New York Times 08/02/2012
Knight Capital Says Trading Glitch Cost it $440 MillionNew York Times 08/02/2012
Spain gets an extra year till 2014 to bring budget deficits down to below 3%
07/10/2012
A decline in GDP is leading to lower tax revenues leading to a relaxation of deficit targets. Spain faces an unemployment rate of 27% in 2012
Linked Articles
Euro Zone Eases Budget Demand on Spain
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2012
Spain Braces for Renewed Austerity as Tax Take HemorrhagesUnknown 07/10/2012
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