LyrArc Article Gist
Louis Gallois, CEO of EADS gives his views about reviving European industrial competitiveness.

LyrArc Article Gist
A call for immigrant friendly policies in the Republican party in this WSJ editorial. It shows immigrants are not looking for a handout and immigration today is net zero from Mexico.

LyrArc Article Gist
European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, addressing the European Parliament in Brussels on April 25, 2012, supported both sides in the issues facing the eurozone, calling for continued vigilance on structural reforms to improve competitiveness of countries in the eurozone such as Spain and Italy, and at the same time saying it was imperative to generate economic growth. He told the European parliament: "The uncertainty about the present situation is very, very, high... Any exit strategy is premature given the current economic situation." Saying that the fiscal compact had been negotiated recently to control spending, yet what Europe needed was also a growth compact- "but my most present thought right now is to have a growth compact." He emphasized that it was now upto governments and banks to pick up the ball. The ECB's achievement was buying time with its 3 year loans to banks in Spain and Italy and other EU countries in Dec. 2011-March 2012, which he described as no ordinary achievement. Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel seized on Draghi's comments to show they were doing the right thing. Merkel conceded that growth was needed, saying sustainable initatives would be good for Europe, that what Germany was opposing was simply stimulus spending that would increase debt without the structural reforms to improve competitiveness. Hollande for his part said he would call for eurozone bonds to pay for industrial and infrastructure projects, and a financial transactions tax....

LyrArc Article Gist
Republican voter sentiment in Springfield, Ohio. Warren Davidson is running for former House Speaker Boehner's seat in this Congressional district in Ohio with the support of Tea Party activists. The median income in the city is $31,635, $15,000 less than the Ohio median. The population has declined from 80,000 in the sixties to less than 60,000, according to Census Bureau. Only about 15% of the Springfield population has a college degree compared to 30% in the U.S. Speaker Boehner had a small group of loyalists and tight control of the Republican party in his district, leading to charges that he was too close to the establishment and business. Trump has support from Republican voters who feel the party has drifted away from them.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bond investors are looking to Japan for clues after the U.S. credit downgrade and two years of zero interest rates. William O'Donnell, chief Treasurys strategist at RBS Securities sees similiarities with what happened in Japan- short term rates near zero and long term rates headed down. strategists see the U.S. 10 year Treasury note dropping to less than 2%, from 2.23% today. Japan's 10 year Treasury note yields 1.05%. O'Donnell's forecast is for 10 year rates to be at 1.70% by mid-2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Obe and Pfanner provide insights into the business sentiment about Abenomics in Toyota City, by interviewing Kawahara, owner of a kimono shop, Okuda of auto parts supplier Okuda Industry Co., Arai, president of Hotel Toyota Castle. Sentiment for Abenomics is not strong here after two quarters of economic contraction in 2014, and business sees problems such as higher import costs of imported energy with a weaker yen. Yet business people say there are no alternatives and the opposition DPJ has less to offer for renewing growth. Sentiment is shifting towards support for the LDP in Toyota City. Unemployment has dropped to 2.4% here in Toyota City with the huge improvement in global sales and profits of Toyota Motor. Nationally an Asahi newspaper poll shows the LDP taking 300 of 475 parliamentary seats in the snap election of Dec. 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Krugman points out that the Bush tax cuts if continued in the US for all income levels will cost $680 billion over the next decade. This estimate is from the Tax Policy Center.

LyrArc Article Gist
The stories of Dylan Roberts, 32 years, in Rockford, Illinois and Alfred Butt, 42 years,in Hohenlockenstedt, Germany. Roberts lost his job at aChrysler plant in Belvidere, near Rockford, Illinois, and Butt lost his job a German auto parts maker. Roberts gets a $64,000 severance package, and 59 weeks of unemployment insurance, with apossible additional 13 weeks, with monthly check of $1426 that is 27% of his income of $64,000 a year when employed. attribute 33 weeks of the 59 weeks to the stimulus measures of President Obama. Butt has 4 months as atransfer worker at full pay, which can be as long as 1 year, then he has till May 2010 at 80% of his pay when employed full time of 2700 euros amonth. The transfer company gives job training and job hunting advice. He continues getting his medical insurance benefits which are provided by the state. Roberts loses his health insurance with his job, and hopes to pay his expenses for a2 bedroom apartment with his girlfriend who makes close to $1500 as an elementary school teacher. He will take a2 year electronic engineering course with a local college using $6000 from Obama's Dislocated Worker's Program. But he isn't sure if he can do his studies after one year when his unemployment benefits expire. Butt can afford to take a vacation to Cyprus and his lifestyle is not much affected he says. His wife works as a nurse at a rheumatism clinic. Butt is like the 64% of Germans who say the crisis is not affecting them personally. Roberts is like the 87% of Americans who say this crisis id hurting them in their persdonal lives. To pay for the state funded benefits the total wage tax burdenas a percentage of labor costs for Butt is 52% in Germany. FOr Roberts it is 30% in the USA. France is at 49% Spain at 39% and the UK at 34%. Germany's public expenditures for these labor benefits are 2.97% of GDP in 2006, the USA's are 0.38%. Spain and France are at 2.32% and the UK at 0.61%. This also explains why the impact in countries like Germany and Spain is not felt so badly as in the USA. In SPain there is also the lower mobility and the safety net of family support helping people cope making it possible to cope with 20% unemployment without serious distress and hardships. See the link to Spain's unemployed....

LyrArc Article Gist
Yale University's Robert Shiller quotes Thomas Jefferson from a letter written in 1820, where he said about the passions in the North and South about extending of slavery to the Missouri territory: "this momentous question, like a fire bell in the night, awakened and filled me with terror." He says there are serious consequences of letting longterm unemployment continue. He cites a proposal by Edmund Phelps, Nobel prize winner in economics from Columbia University, which would have the government give a subsidy of $4.50 an hour for the lowest paid workers, with declining amounts till they earn $15 an hour. This proposal would cost about $150 billion and be aimed at reducing income inequality and making these lower paid jobs attractive. Other proposals for reducing unemployment are to use work-sharing on a national basis with government help.

LyrArc Article Gist
Fed chairman Bernanke estimates the impact of "Operation Twist," will be to bring down long term rates by about 20 basis points, or one fifth of a percentage point. This he said is equivalent to reducing the Fed's benchmark short term rates by half a point. The Fed chairman said he is not ruling out expanding the Fed's portfolio by buying securities, but has no immediate plans for this action.

LyrArc Article Gist
The influence of business executives who helped shape president Trump's views on Mexico, China, Export Import Bank, and other issues is covered by Stokols and Bender of WSJ. On Mexico the departure of Mike Flynn helped moderate views, Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary also provided a moderating influence. The plans are now to change NAFTA but not entirely redo the agreement. On the Export Import Bank the views of Boeing CEO Muilenburg, who explained to Trump why the Bank supported U.S. exports and how other countries had similar banks, led to the president filling the bank vacancies. On China the influence of NEC head, Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, and other business executives, led to a less confrontational position. The president once called NATO obsolete during the campaign but he met this week with NATO secretary general Stoltenberg this week and expressed strong support for NATO after rising tensions with Russia.

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT editorial describes the failure of president Obama's immigration policy and the deportation of large numbers of illegal immigrants. It says Obama has deported more immigrants faster than any other U.S. president. And it says president Obama has used even the statement that he would look for ways to make the process "more humane" a delaying action. It says that after some 2 million deportations the whole situation is infuriating.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that without aid to state and local governments, cash strapped cities and states will be cutting back on services and employment, undoing much of the work of the stimulus. These cutbacks by local governments is showing up in the unemployment figures from the Commerce Department. And social cohesion is being strained as the outlook for those without jobs for more than 6 months looks worse with the economy slowing down.

LyrArc Article Gist
David Leonhardt on the policy errors of the Obama administration in managing the economy. Why he asks did the Obama administration not take the risks it took for "undeserving" recipients in the auto industry to provide significant help to GM and Chrysler and at the same not provide large scale and situation changing help to millions of mortgage holders who were under water? The housing crisis with millons of foreclosures depressing home prices has played a significant part in the lagging economic recovery. He points out that Obama economic advisors had read Rogoff and Reinhart's book "This Time Its Different," about the longer times it takes for a economic recovery after a housing bubble, and still made the mistake of believing economists who suggested that the stimulus by itself would be sufficient and that recovery was underway in 2010. Others in the Democratic party had pointed to the lack of focus on unemployment by the Obama administration. Why were such voices not heard?

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney is questioned about the depth of his beliefs by John Harwood, at the November 9, 2011, Oakland University, Michigan, televised presidential debate. Harwood asked Romney if his positions on issues "are rooted in something deeper than the fact that you are running for office." Romeny's response was that he had been married for 42 years, and "been in the same church all my life," and worked at the same firm Bain & Co. and Bain Capital, for 25 years, that he was a man of steadiness and constancy." On key economic issues such as revival of the auto industry and foreclosures, both major issues in Michigan, Romney continued to maintain that the loans made by the government to Chrysler and GM were a mistake. Oakland University is only half a mile from Chrysler headquarters. This view was challenged by Rick Snyder, Republican governor of the state of Michigan, who said- "it wasn't just one or two companies that were at risk, but the entire national suply chain." On foreclosures Romney maintained his position that the government should let the market work, even if this means millions of foreclosures. Romney said: "Markets work. When you have government play its heavy hand, markets blow up and people get hurt," putting the blame for the housing crisis on Fannie Me and Freddie Mac, agencies with a government guarantee that encouraged indiscriminate housing loans. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
David Wessel says there are three hypotheses about the slow recovery with growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2011, estimated growth of 1.4-1.5% for the second quarter. The first, is that this is transitory, with gas prices, Japan's tsunami disrupting supply chians, and Europe's poor handling of the financial crisis. This he scores as wishful thinking. The second, that the stimulus was too small, the need for a second stimulus, or the related hypothesis of the large uncertainty hanging over business, including the debt ceiling negotiations, deficit etc. This he scores as more convincing, but one is not sure different policies would have led to a different situation. The third hypothesis is that the underlying diagnosis of the economy itself was hopeful but flawed and wrong. Hope about the housing market- which has been proved wrong. The same for exports, or consumer spending. Wessel cites Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt's new book on the afterperiod of financial crises and asset bubbles, with data going back to many historical periods showing that the periods following crises are difficult having protracted periods of slow or marginal economic growth....

LyrArc Article Gist
The deep cuts in Chrysler's engineering staf, with 40% of the engineering staff gone under Daimler and Cerberus, is hsowing up at job fairs. Jim Badhorn was a Chrysler engineer for 21 years before he took the buyout. He designed the rear doors of the Chrysler 300 sedan. Badhorn put much of the $75,000 into acollege fund for his 2 daughters. He hits the gym everyday. He is arenter so his home in Birminghan isn't like the other owners who have lost 40% of their home value. And he can't even find the end of the job line when he goes to a job fair for a military contractor.

LyrArc Article Gist
Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...