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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
Dangers of credit fueled bubble in China- 2015-2016
10/17/2014
Bob Davis of WSJ sees the end of China's economic miracle in 2015-2016. He is pessimistic about the future. The Economist cites estimates of debt to GDP reaching 250%, and the IMF warns of the dangers of credit fueled growth citing examples of Ireland, Spain, Brazil and Sweden.
Linked Articles
The End of China’s Economic Miracle?
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of ChinaEconomist 10/17/2014
Hillary Clinton's uphill battle for the 2016 presidential election
09/28/2014
For the most part Hillary Clinton's public life has been overshadowed by the presidency of her husband Bill Clinton, and by the presidency of Barack Obama. How she defines herself to ordinary voters facing the economic issues at home, and worried about U.S. weakness overseas, will determine to a large extent how she does in the 2016 presidential election.
Linked Articles
A Record of Resilience at Vanguard of American Presidential Politics
New York Times 09/28/2014
Hillary Clinton and Democrats Aim to Buck HistoryWall Street Journal 04/13/2015
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
More women without jobs in 2014 compared to 2010, and the 20% of U.S. households in 2014 either underwater or with less than 20% equity in their homes
05/19/2014
Most parts of the Democratic base badly damaged in the Obama administration's policy decisions in the housing and mortgage crisis of 2008-2009. A delayed economic recovery with weakness in consumer spending as one of the predictable outcomes of the policy decisions taken for homeowners.
Linked Articles
Economic Recovery Yields Few Benefits for the Voters Democrats Rely On
New York Times 05/19/2014
Mortgage, Home-Equity Woes LingerWall Street Journal 05/20/2014
Ukraine's economic crisis during the conflict with Russia- 2014-2016
03/28/2014
Linked Articles
IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to Ukraine
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Ukraine’s Hryvnia Plunges After Rate RiseWall Street Journal 02/07/2015
The events in Lviv and in the Square in Kiev Feb-20-21, 2014, that led to the collapse of the Yakunovych government in Ukraine
02/22/2014
A parallel diplomatic effort that may have been driven by the events in Lviv and in the Square and underestimated the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement.
Linked Articles
As His Fortunes Fell in Ukraine, a President Clung to Illusions
New York Times 02/23/2014
European Ministers Brokered Ukraine Political CompromiseWall Street Journal 02/22/2014
Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015
02/21/2014
Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.
Linked Articles
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted
Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court RulesNew York Times 08/25/2014
Detroit's road to recovery- the remarkable contributions of Judge Rhodes and Chief Mediator Judge Rosen in the settlement (3)
02/15/2014
Linked Articles
Mediator in Detroit Bankruptcy Walks Fine Line Between City, Creditors
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2014
Detroit files plan to fix debt, leave bankruptcy - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/22/2014
Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law
02/05/2014
Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.
Linked Articles
Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014
They quit their jobs, thanks to the health law - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2014
Detroit's road to recovery- Judge Rhodes' rejection of a plan to pay off banks (2)
12/23/2013
Linked Articles
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit Case
New York Times 12/23/2013
Judge Disallows Plan by Detroit to Payoff BanksNew York Times 01/16/2014
Liu He, top economic advisor to president Jinping, and Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, push for deposit insurance and private banks in China
10/30/2013
Deposit insurance and private banks to support lending to new private enterprises moves to the top of China's agenda and priorities in 2013 for the Jinping-Keqiang administration.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish ListWall Street Journal 10/30/2013
Two party systems and Malaysia's UMNO Party- (2) the future economic prospects of Malaysia under Razak, India under Modi, Indonesia under Widodo
12/08/2014
Najib Razak follows his father Tun Abdul Razak, Mahathir before him, all the way back to Tunku Abdul Rahman, all of the UMNO party, in an uninterrupted control of the United Malay Naional Organization Party which has ruled Malaysia for almost 6 decades. Malaysia has followed the example of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore by keeping the opposition parties weak to maintain control. Both the UMNO and the party of Lee in Singapore face questions about the merits of suppressing the development of two party systems, at a time when government is changing hands to opposition parties in most of the region and improving economic prospects in each country with a change of government- Abe in Japan, Widodo in Indonesia, Modi and Sharif in India and Pakistan, Aquino in the Philippines, Wickremesinghe in Sri Lanka. A economic drift with no clear direction under Singh and Bhutto in India and Pakistan was reversed with the election of Modi and Sharif, the economic drift and deflation under the Kan and Noda governments was reversed in Japan with the election of Abe, and the economic drift in Indonesia is being reversed by the Widodo government. This shows how critical two party systems are to functioning democracies as middle classes develop and voters look for competing views of the future to choose from.
Linked Articles
Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo Pledges to Cut Investment BarriersWall Street Journal 12/08/2014
HSBC bank and the longer road to recovery
11/03/2014
Linked Articles
Road to Good Returns Gets Longer for HSBC
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
HSBC Hurt By $1.69 Billion in Legal CostsNew York Times 11/03/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
Obama's second term- (5) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Clinton and Panetta
08/11/2014
A Defense Secretary and Secretary of State in the Obama administration describe up close president Obama's failure to act at key moments in the crisis in Iraq and Syria. This has badly damaged the U.S. credibility and what it stands for in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Linked Articles
A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy
New York Times 08/11/2014
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Popular discontent with hosting the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil- construction issues and lack of improvement in infrastructure and services
05/26/2014
Linked Articles
Hope Fades in Brazil for a World Cup Economic Boost
Wall Street Journal 05/28/2014
Brazil Is Tired of Being ScoldedNew York Times 05/26/2014
From Amethi to Ladakh- Exceptional NYT reporting on the 2014 parliamentary elections in India
05/09/2014
Bearak reports from Ladakh in the northern Himalayas, and Barry reports from Amethi in the Ganges valley state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, to give readers in America a feel for the largest parliamentary elections in the world at a turning point in the region.
Linked Articles
In Stronghold, a Gandhi Finds the Reception Is More Skeptical than Worshipful
New York Times 05/09/2014
Hikers Spread Democracy in IndiaNew York Times 05/12/2014
Christine Lagarde and John Lipsky on the need to move forward with the IMF reforms giving greater representation to emerging market countries in G-20
03/25/2014
Lagarde and Lipsky point out that this does not change the U.S. voting rights of 16%. They emphasize the stabilizing role the IMF has played for the global economy in crises and the more open thinking at the IMF on economic programs.
Linked Articles
The U.S. Should Ratify Its Agreement to IMF Reform
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2014
Congress Can Help the U.S. By Reforming The IMFWall Street Journal 03/25/2014
Detroit's road to recovery -rebuilding street lighting and other infrastructure and services (1)
02/22/2014
Linked Articles
For Detroit, New Stage in Its Race to Recover
New York Times 02/23/2014
Detroit files plan to fix debt, leave bankruptcy - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/22/2014
U.S. household spending in a very gradual recovery as banks make home loans to people with high credit scores and younger buyers defer purchases
02/18/2014
Linked Articles
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise AgainNew York Times 02/18/2014
A younger generation takes over in Italy- "we are worried that time is passing, and nothing is happening." (2)
02/12/2014
The IMF estimate shows that at the current pace of economic change Italy's growth rate would remain at 0.5% till 2018. Confindustria, Italy's business association, says it is worried that nothing is happening.
Linked Articles
Italian Premier’s Latest Challenge Comes From His Own Party
New York Times 02/12/2014
Italian Prime Minister to Resign, Clearing Path for RenziWall Street Journal 02/14/2014
The 150 million single children of parents, and the 61 million children of migrant workers- today's young generation in China growing up in unusual conditions
01/17/2014
The children of migrant workers were mostly brought up away from parents in rural areas by grandparents. The children born under a single child policy in urban areas had the opposite happen, with too much attention from doting parents. Both groups were raised in a manner not seen anywhere else in the world and face growing pains and lives with different burdens and needs than the rest of us. China's social and economic experiment may have come too fast, as policy planners may only now begin to realize. A lot may need to be done to address their needs and burdens, not so easily seen as the burdens of pollution and contamination whicha are easily observed.
Linked Articles
End of China’s One-Child Policy Stings Its ‘Loneliest Generation’
New York Times 11/13/2015
Left-Behind Children of China's Migrant Workers Bear Grown-Up BurdensWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
A deeply divided Thailand with political divisions between the northeast around Chiang Mai and the Bangkok region
12/03/2013
Yingluck and Thaksin Shinawatra are from the northeast of Thailand and get most of their support from this region. The Bangkok region, military, courts and business remain opposed to a transfer of power to the provinces and the policies of Shinawatra. SHinawatra's policies favor the rural areas and the newly emerging middle class in the north. The struggle is as much a social phenomenon from the economic progress of the last 2 decades in Thailand as it is a struggle for a sharing of power, say experts.
Linked Articles
Economic Realignment Fuels Regional Political Divisions in Thailand
New York Times 12/03/2013
Economic Realignment Fuels Regional Political Divisions in ThailandNew York Times 12/03/2013
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