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Dangers facing Turkey's economy with its dependence on foreign capital inflows and excessive growth in domestic credit for growth
10/04/2012
Foreign capital inflows that partly support the sharp growth in domestic credit could slow or reverse as happened in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The IMF sees a credit to GDP ratio of over 5% as a warning light for developing economies. The IMF forecast is for this rato to be 7.28% for Turkey in 2103.
Linked Articles
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External WorryWall Street Journal 10/04/2012
Planned urbanization for 2020 as a growth engine in China as existing income concentration makes a surge in consumer spending unlikely
10/03/2012
Linked Articles
China Unveils Urbanization Plan
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2014
Rebalancing a Divided ChinaWall Street Journal 10/03/2012
How keeping seniors as a protected class in current Social Security proposals impacts the young and leads to shrinking investments in defense, social programs, research, education and infrastructure
08/16/2012
This includes the Republican Paul Ryan proposal which also stays away from touching Social Security for today's seniors and passes on the costs to the young. Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue. Samuelson cites CBO estimates which show that even with shrinking defense and nondiscretionary spending by a third the U.S. deficit would still be 6.75% of GDP in 2023.
Linked Articles
Robert Samuelson: Ryan’s budget asks nothing of the elderly -; unfortunately - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/16/2012
Mr. Biden falls flat - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/16/2012
Production problems, outsourcing issues, delivery delays, and its impact on the Boeing Dreamliner and Airbus A-350 programs
07/11/2012
Changes in orders and cancellations by Quantas, China Eastern and other airlines as a result of long delays in the Dreamliner 787 program.
Linked Articles
Boeing 787 Profit Plan Strained by Order Cut
Wall Street Journal 08/24/2012
Hit by Delays, Airbus Tries New Way of Building PlanesWall Street Journal 07/11/2012
Hollande, Ayrault, and "the strong signal to Germany"
05/15/2012
French president Hollande's appointment of Ayrault, a professor of German studies as premier, is seen as "a strong signal to Germany." So is the appointment of a former minister of European Affairs, Muscovici, as finance minster. This sets the tone and groundwork for a closer fiscal and political union in Europe, to provide the foundation for the euro as a common currency in the eurozone. Germany and France now have two leaders whose mentors were strong proponents of European Union, former German chancellor Kohl and former European Commission president Jacques Delours.
Linked Articles
Logic Pushing Europe Toward Greater Integration
New York Times 06/07/2012
Ayrault Named French PremierWall Street Journal 05/15/2012
Criticism of Japan's central bank on the lack of an activist monetary policy to support economic growth 2010-2012
05/07/2012
Shinzo Abe of the LDP, the leading candidate for prime minister after general elections in Dec. 2012, says he will appoint a new central bank chief who supports an activist monetary policy. Abe supports the BOJ setting an inflation target of 2% compared to the 1% under current Bank of Japan chief Shirakawa. Both the governing DPJ and the LDP parties are strongly critical of Shirakawa and prefer to see an activist stance against deflation similiar to the one Ben Bernanke is taking against unemployment in the U.S. Abe returns to power after becoming LDP prime minister following the government of Junichiro Koizumi.
Linked Articles
Vote Challenges Japan's Central Bank
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
Pressure Rises on BOJ to Reach Inflation TargetWall Street Journal 05/07/2012
The growth compact for Europe: union-government cooperation to build competitiveness in France
04/17/2012
Unions and major parties in France are in agreement on wage restraint and accepting lower wages to preserve jobs, similiar to the effort in Germany during its period of high unemployment.
Linked Articles
France Moves to Make Labor More Flexible
Wall Street Journal 05/01/2012
French Presidential Election Stokes Investor ConcernNew York Times 04/17/2012
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the Development Research Center (DRC) think tank
02/23/2012
The road map and priorities of the DRC and the PBOC are now the road map and priorities of the Jinping-Keqiang administration A sense of deepening awareness takes hold on party leaders Jinping and Li Keqiang that the current trajectory of Debt to GDP ratios could lead to the kind of situation before the banking crisis in Japan and S. Korea. The importance of striking a balance with growth of private companies to support future growth and move away from reliance on state owned enterprises is part of the change supported by DRC and PBOC.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
Why the world needs America as a champion of liberal democracy and a leader maintaining the peace in Asia and Europe
02/11/2012
Linked Articles
Yes, America Should Be the World’s Policeman
Wall Street Journal 11/14/2014
Why the World Needs AmericaWall Street Journal 02/11/2012
Xi Jinping, China's history of political convusions in the leadership and society, and the desire for consensus and careful thinking.
01/31/2012
Xi' s life story, his family, and the Communist party under Mao and Deng. What it says about the desire for consensus and careful thinking about the future direction of China.
Linked Articles
Xi Appeals for 'Purity' Amid Party Scandal
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2012
Heartland Return for Chinese LeaderWall Street Journal 01/31/2012
The passage of the unpopular sales tax hike and political uncertainty in Japan
12/27/2011
Critics say the Democratic Party of Japan should have invested efforts in its election promises to cut wasteful spending. Polls show a majority of Japanese oppose the doubling of the sales tax to 10%.
Linked Articles
Vote Ensures Japan Will Double Sales Tax to 10%
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2012
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
The situation in Athens, Greece, in Dec. 2011, with the German insistence on strict austerity measures
11/27/2011
The likelihood that Greeks would vote against austerity measures as a condition for staying in the euro, if a referendum were held as proposed.
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
The Spirit of EnterpriseNew York Times 12/01/2011
Efforts by Republicans in the House of Representatives to develop bipartisan solutions to the U.S. deficit crisis
11/17/2011
Efforts of Super Committee members Hensarling, Toomey and the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Dave Camp to negotiate a bipartisan solution. This follows the failed efforts of Republicans Boehner, Cantor and McConnell in 2011 to reach a negotiated deal with the Democrats in Congress. Camp is taking a patient approach and has shown the ability to navigate different personalities in the U.S. Congress as he works on a solution to the deficit.
Linked Articles
Rep. Dave Camp patiently pursues tax reform - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/29/2012
GOP supercommittee members’ tax plan gives party an identity crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/17/2011
The new Jinping-Keqiang leadership and reducing pharmaceutical and healthcare costs to help consumers in China (1)
10/03/2012
After a decade of decline in consumer spending in favor of infrastructure spending to where it is now only 35% of GDP, or half that in the U.S. as a percentage of GDP, China's leadership realizes the need to help consumers. It is seen as high on the list of priorities for the Party's survival. Ordinary Chinese, rural households and the elderly are seriously affected by the high cost of healthcare and the need to set aside a large portion of savings for medical emergencies (Orlik). This further depresses consumer after the impact of low savings rates. With a bursting of the property bubble the money depositors shifted to real estate is also at risk for middle class investors.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/03/2012
Politics Is a Bitter Pill for GlaxoWall Street Journal 07/25/2013
The Obama admnistration and the conflict in Syria
08/28/2012
A brief history shows the Alawite community constitutes about 13% of the population in Syria and live mainly in the coastal region near the Mediterranean. Under the French Alawites generally supported the colonial regime and the community was used by the French colonial regime to act as a buffer as they ruled a predominantly Sunni population. The Alawites joined the military and Hafez Assad, an Alawite general, seized control in 1971. His son now rules Syria. The Obama administration has largely missed the struggle of the people for freedom from dictatorships in Syria and Egypt under Mubarak.. With Turkey and Egypt supporting the young people in Syria, the U.S. investment is minor in military and other support compared to the cost of letting the war continue with unintended consequences for the entire region.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/13/2012
Assad Draws Shock Troops From Elite Sect in SyriaWall Street Journal 08/28/2012
Latino leader from Texas in the U.S. Senate
08/01/2012
Ted Cruz is likely to be the new Senator from Texas. Ted's parents immigrated from Cuba. He worked for Chief Justice Rehnquist as a young law school graduate and was Solicitor General of Texas.
Linked Articles
Republican Senate Candidate in Texas Is Known as an Intellectual Force
New York Times 08/01/2012
A Tea-Party Favorite Wins Texas RaceWall Street Journal 08/01/2012
Enrique Pena Nieto's vision for the future of Mexico
05/20/2012
Nieto describes his vision and outlines his plan for Mexico in an op-ed in the NYT and in an interview with Lally Weymouth of the Washington Post. He says this is a new generation and this is not the PRI party of the past.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/02/2012
Interview with Mexican presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/20/2012
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
The crisis facing the power industry in India with stalling coal production and inadequate supples
04/19/2012
Power shortages continue to act as a constraint to India's growth.
Linked Articles
Scandal Spurs Indian Coal Auction
Wall Street Journal 04/24/2012
India Struggles to Dig Up Enough Fuel to Power GrowthNew York Times 04/19/2012
The administration of Japanese premier Noda after Ichiro Ozawa leaves the DPJ party
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Rival of Japan’s prime minister fails to strike critical blow to ruling party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/03/2012
Prime Minister Noda says tax hike essential for Japan's sustainability - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/04/2012
Exit from the Eurozone and return to the drachma as the most likely and best outcome for Greece after April 2012 elections
02/22/2012
John Taylor and the Ifo Institue's Sinn say the recapitalization of Greece's banks and the lower interest rates negotiated after the March 2012 bailout make exiting the euro and achieving economic growth doable. The Papdemos government's need for time till 2015 to complete the program of changes, and the elections in April 2012 in which opposition parties outpolled Pasok and New Democrachy lays the political groundwork for the exit.
Linked Articles
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Why America has a role to play as a leader for liberal democracy and free trade
02/10/2012
Much of the progress that the world has enjoyed in the last six decades is a result of America's leadership and championing of liberal democracy and its institutions, and free trade. A lot will be at risk if this role is jeopardized by a policy of indifference to American economic strength and astrong its manufacturing base, indifference to Europe as an invaluable partner of the U.S. with the same goals and ideals, and a new generation unaware of the role the U.S. played and continues to play in bringing the peoples of the world together around common goals and aspirations.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2012
Now That The Sun Has SetWall Street Journal 02/10/2012
China's Communist party leader Xi Jinping- image building and leadership in China in 2015
01/31/2012
Linked Articles
Move Over Mao: Beloved ‘Papa Xi’ Awes China
New York Times 03/07/2015
Heartland Return for Chinese LeaderWall Street Journal 01/31/2012
Honda's struggle to recover after the tsunami in Japan with lower margins
12/21/2011
Honda is seeing lower margins as it struggles to recover in the U.S. and other markets. Honda had to use more incentives than Toyota in the U.S. market leading to deteriorating profit margins in 2012. Sales of newer models failed to catch on making Honda dependent on the Civic and the Accord in the U.S. market. The appreciating yen added to the impact on margins with a further shift to manufacturing overseas planned as a response.
Linked Articles
Honda Pins Revival on U.S. Auto Sales
Wall Street Journal 06/01/2012
Honda Revs Up Outside JapanWall Street Journal 12/21/2011
The minimum wage, inequality, and Mexican Americans in New York City
11/24/2011
New York City as a microcosm of the situation for Hispanics and Mexican Americans in the U.S. Recent demographic changes show a large proportion of the population of children in the U.S. is Hispanic.
Linked Articles
No Money for a Living Wage? But Fat Abounds
New York Times 11/29/2011
Mexicans in New York City Lag in EducationNew York Times 11/24/2011
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