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It is only appropriate to bring up Aneurin Bevan in 2024 after the pandemic and as ordinary Britons seek to improve health and living standards, and their compatriots in the US also seek a better form of universal health coverage that works to provide better health  for less cost similar to Europe. In 1948 the National Health Services Act was passed into law with Aneurin Bevan having seen it through parliament as a member of the Labour party from Wales. The NHS was operational in July 1948. Clement Attlee summoned Bevan after winning in a landslide in 1948 and asked him to take the Housing and Health Ministry. Bevan was a coal miner's son who then used his skills in parliament to get passage of laws that created one of the most enduring  institutions of modern times. A docudrama by Prince about a visionary Welshman Aneurin Bevan as Health Minister who founded the NHS National Health Service of Britain. Michael Sheen plays Bevan.

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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The economist argues that home ownership is not benficial as social policy as it was made out to be. People in negative equity, or holding subprime mortgages, or people in foreclosure with blighted neighborhoods and acceleration in falling prices, and the lack of mobility that comes with home ownership in states that have high home ownership, and disappearing wealth with falling prices, make it a poor tool of social policy and a failed way of accumulating wealth. Experts say that one in four recesssions are caused by housing market collapse, and these recessions take longer to heal. The heavy borrowing against home equity of $9 trillion between 1997 and 2006- equal to more than 90% of disposable income- also makes this inr reality a way of adding debt not of accumulating wealth, as the wealth has an illusory aspect when prices are pushed up by the constant trading of homes as investments setting up a bubble phenomena, and renters who do not have what it takes to own a home are pushed into home ownership. About 10 million homeowners have negative equity in their homes. The value of American homeowners equity has dropped from the peak of $12.5 trillion in 2005 to just $8.5 trillion at the end of 2008. All that $9 trillion in debt is piled up against illusory gains in wealth based on transitory house price jumps. These numbers suggest that the $9 trillion in debt from borrowing aginst home equity is more than the entire value of homeowner equity in the USA, meaning if Americans had aliquid market and sold all their homes today they could not pay off the debt generated from home equity borrowing during the bubble years. Worse still cutbacks in consumption are severe in such situations, and this situation weakens banks balance sheets as foreclosures increase, creating a vicious cycle and downward trend as investment and employment are also hit hard, one that is hard to break....

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Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

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Fears about a property price bubble in China bursting with the central bank not able to control the economy. Increasing fears that China may not be able to control the bubble. Other countries where bubble effects are taking place: Canada where housing prices are accelerating, Brazil with expected GDP growth of 5.8% and "hot money" pouring in, India where inflation has reached 15% and $92 billion of foreign investment in Indian stocks and bonds, Australia with its hot mining sector with trade connections to China, South Korea with growth approaching 5% and high rates of household debt. GDP and property prices increased by 11% in China in the 1st quarter of 2010. Many of these economies have connections with China, including Brazil and Australia with commodities sectors dependent on China.

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Kon Wen-je wins the mayoral election in Taipei, Taiwan, by 57% to 41% over a Koumintang party candidate. The Koumintang party prime minister resigns. The vote is seen as a repudiation of the closer trade ties to China pursued by the Koumintang. The wealth of Koumintang candidates, the benefits to Koumintang connected businessmen who benefit from increasing trade ties to China, at a time of higher housing prices and increasing inequality, was also an issue in the campaign. Wen-je ran as an Independent candidate supported by the Progressive Democratic Party. This also suggests the direction for the presidential election for 2016. Taiwan has shown increasing wariness over closer trade ties, at a time when protests in Hong Kong have raised questions about China's committment to western democratic values.

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Readers Haven and Harrington comment on the op-ed "Don't Blame Jim Cramer", March 17, in the Washington Post. Jon Stewart took Jim Cramer and CNBC to task for helping inflate the financial bubble with the TV program. A lot of this went on on in all the news programs CNBC and on Bloomberg, as the business news media in their revenue model depend on viewers and advertising revenues, and are not rewarded for good reporting and analysis. Hype and other kinds of promotion, can win better ratings then patient, against the tide reporting and analysis. Reward systems determine the way, humans, media, and other things in our economics system respond. These are essentially unchanged and remain so one bubble after another, tech, housing, credit, on and on.

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One of the most egregious abuses in the form of capitalism prevailing in the United States, that leaves consumers unprotected, is the way credit card companies operate. This NYT editorial talks about the tricks and traps, interest rate spikes, and other abuses that have agonized millions of customers. This becomes a larger social issue, because of the widespread debt and the increasing job losses, loss of income, and the housing market, which draw millions more into burdensome credit card debt situations. The Federal Reserve has made some changes in the rules by which credit card companies have to operate, but this will not go into effect till mid 2010. NYT editorial says that the new legislation sponsored by Senator Dodd to make this effective in 2009, is critical and should be passed.

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The losses for investors from mortgage loans won't go down by much by Treasury's plan. Barclay's Capital Research estimates that losses could go down by 1% point from 13 to 15% losses that are expected on the subprime loans. And the economy would only be helped at the margins according to Roubini, a NYU economist who heads Roubini Global Economics, who doesn't see it doing much for the foeclosures and defaults leading to a housing recession for the next 3 years. Out of some 1.8 million borrowers, 600,000 not current on their payments will get no help, and of the remaining 1.2 million only 600,000 who are current on their mortgages but need help will qualify, those with better credit scores such as above 660 and having the means to pay will be excluded.

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As farm product rotted on farms because of a lack of buyers, India has come up with new ways of getting farm agricultural product to buyers in urban areas. The Indian government has approved online sales direct from farmers to buyers outside the country. Within the country enterprising farmers  and app developers for farm produce sales directly to consumers in cities are changing the way agricultural produce distribution works. This report in the Guardian shows how sales are being made from remote Meghalaya state to buyers in cities for product ranging from turmeric, pineapple, jackfruit, and cashew. Prices are about 70% higher helping boost farmers incomes.  Several states have relaxed rules allowing farmers to sell anywhere in the country.  In other parts of the country this is happening with a proliferation of such apps creating a virtual marketplace. Other examples are a grape orchard farm in Gudahalli with sales made in Bengaluru at 30 apartment complexes. One site founder in Chandigarh says he has in 2 months sold 20,000 tons of produce ranging from avocados of the Nilgiris to papaya from Chattisgarh. His app Harvesting Farmer Network also helps with packaging and delivery. In other developments Gaia Agritech is helping farmers on the Konkan coast in Maharashtra hit hard by a pause in exports, sell to housing societies in Pune and Mumbai. This is part of a broader debate in India after coronavirus pandemic. One idea is that people have a family farmer just like they have a family doctor, encouraging organic agriculture, fresh produce for healthier living. By helping farmers it makes for a better economy, as about a sixth of India's GDP comes from farmers and most of the jobs are in farming and agricultural economy. ...

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A coronavirus outbreak at a housing complex in Gottingen has led to a lockdown of the city as Germany reopens.

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A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

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S. Korea's household debt is now 155% of GDP, according to the OECD. For the last ten years the household debt is growing at 13 percent, double the rate of GDP growth. Korea was not affected to the same extent as other countries by the 2008 financial crisis. As a result household debt continues to grow rapidly. The household debt to disposable income reached 140% in the U.S. before the 2008 financial crisis, according to the IMF. Spain reached a level of 130% before the crisis, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The Financial Services Commission in S. Korea has taken steps to control this- by imposing limits on bank lending, tighter credit checks by banks, and incentives for shifting to fixed rate mortgages. About 95% of mortgages in S. Korea are adjustable rate mortgages. Housing loan rules in S. Korea require loans to not exceed half of the value of the house, and annual payments of principal and interest cannot exceed 40% of the owners income. This effectively insulates the banks from the effects of a housing bubble. One of the effect of the 1997 financial crisis in S. Korea when it turned to the IMF for assistance, is the relaxing of controls on interest rates to encourage spending in a country that encouraged saving. The result is the growth of a nonbank sector which is not subject to central government regulation by the Financial Supervisory Service. The non-banks are regulated only by local governments and can charge upto 39% compared to 4-6% at banks. Non-banks are also allowed to turn in their licenses and operate charging even higher rates. Each year about a 1000 nonbanks from 18,500 such banks in 2007 are joining the black market according to the Consumer Loan Finance Association, showing the size of the problem of black market lending to low income borrowers. S. Korea has mostly relied on growing GDP to control the situation, but slowing growth could lead to unsustainable levels of household debt....

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How Sweden in 1992 and is Finance Minister Lundgren faced a similar crisis in its banking system after a housing bubble in that country collapsed. At that time the way Sweden approached it set aside 65 billion kronor or $11.7 billion dollars then or $18.3 billion in today's dollars, 4% of its gross domestic product, for rescuing failing banks. The US plan for $700 billion is roughly 5% of gross domestic product. But the way Sweden did it it extracted full price from shareholders and rescue was arrranged only after the Swedish government got a big equity share in the banks that were rescued. Lundgren is concerned that the US plan does not provide for the US government to take big equity stakes in the banks that receive government money. By selling off these shares in better times the government of Sweden has recovered most of the money depending on how its calculated. However the US government has taken big ownership stakes in Fannie, Freddie, and in AIG. And the plan is not yet spelled out. In terms of its size its similar to the Swedish plan an in this sense its similar, a big government effort to take a decisive and complete approach to the problem. In the short run this may create problems for the dollar according to currency experts like John Taylor, but some experts like currency strategist at Deutsche Bank think that in the longer term this rescue plan hel[ps American macroeconomic fundamentals and in doing so will help the dollar. Another factor is the European economy and as Europe also faces some problems of its own, from a housing bubble standpoint Britain, Ireland and Spain fall in the same boat as the Americans, and Germany may also have some bad loan problems of its own, so the macroeconomic fundamentals may weaken in Europe over time and this might also favor the dollar vs the euro in the longer term. ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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The October 2012 meeting of EU leaders ends with agreement for setting up the EU banking supervisor in the course of 2013. German chancellor Merkel turned down Spain's push for direct aid to its troubled banks and not aid from the ESM bailout fund to Spain which would increase Spain's sovereign debt. The Spanish government has indicated that it might take 40 billion euros out of the 100 billion euros approved by the EU for Spain. Merkel's view is that any direct aid will only go for future recapitalization not to clean up the mess at Bankia and other banks that stems from the failure of Spain's banking regulators and the housing bubble. Merkel said at a news conference: "If recapitalization is possible, it will only be possible for the future." Merkel also said preparations to set up the single banking supervisor would probably go into 2014, and by then "we won't have any more problems with the Spanish banks- at least, I hope not." Germany sees the need to have a carefully developed banking supervision system setup rather than a hurried approach. Merkel is aware that this might be seen as action taken to avoid committing German taxpayer money before elections for chancellor in Sept 2013- "No matter what I'm going to say, it will probably not be the right answer by your standards." ...

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Stewart points out that Japanese government efforts to prop up stock prices by buying stocks in 1992 failed after 2 years when the fundamentals did not support the government effort. Experts say that even if the stock prices recover in China in 2015 after government efforts to prop up prices, this will be temporary if the economic fundamentals do not support such high valuations. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has a P/E ratio of 37 and the Shenzen Stock Exchange has a P/E of 80, very high valuations. Earnings numbers from smaller companies in China are also unreliable increasing investor risk. Additional issues are the timing of the government's effort to promote a surge in the stock market in 2014-2015. It comes as real estate and housing prices are in a bubble and the economy is slowing rapidly.

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Faces of migrants to Germany as Germany sees the migrants as what German chancellor Merkel calls- "A huge national challenge, not only for days or months, but for a long period of time." German civil society shows openness, and German educational institutions offer support. About 800,000 refugees will be accepted in Germany in 2015, says Merkel. An adult migrant is given 143 euros a month for pocket money and 216 euros for basic needs, medical costs are covered. Children are taken care of or attend school while their parents applications are reviewed. Registered migrants are given housing and food. The system works like nowhere else in the world, as most migrants focus on getting to Germany. The condition of the migrants is desperate- one child had not eaten for 4 days. And local doctors examine migrants, with some referred to local hospitals.

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The dangers to Turkey from external short term borrowings to finance its current account deficit. Turkey's current account deficit reached 10% of GDP in 2011. It is 8% in 2012 and is considered high by experts. The problem is short term borrowing from overseas which is sent through its banks for increasing levels of personal and housing loans. Were this flow to dry up because of a sharp downturn in the Eurozone economies it would damage Turkey's financial position. Bank short term external debt has doubled in 2011-2012 to $70.3 billion, or 9% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The U.S. Fed and the ECB have eased global liquidity concerns, but risks are high as long as Turkey relies on short term borrowing. An escalation of the conflict with Syria also poses risks with fears of scaring away investors.

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Joe Nocera compares the German insistence for tough austerity measures in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, to the insistence ofthe Allies for large reparations from Germany after the First World War, which Germany was not able to pay and left it bankrupt by the late 1920's. He cites the failure of orthodox positions on financial and monetary policy to tackle complex issues such as the overvalued currencies of southern Europe, as productivity moved in opposite directions between Southern Europe and Germany. Austin Goolsbee, a former chairman of Council of Economic Advisors, makes the same point in an op-ed piece in the Journal, 11/29/2011. Nocera says this position is simiiar to the position on debt reduction for homeowners facing U.S. foreclosures with government intervention, where little action has been taken worsening the housing crisis and derailing the U.S. economy.

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The strong U.S. job gains of 243,000, according to the Labor Department for January 2012, is a result of unusual factors and is not likely to last. Warmer than usual winter has permitted more construction activity and construction payrolls increased in Dec. and Jan. Another factor is that businesses are making up for labor requirements after the pause during the middle of 2011 from the tsunami and earthquake in Japan, and the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling crisis. The eurozone crisis, and weakness in housing will continue to affect the economy and hiring. The average for jobs created in the last 12 months was 163,000 each month. This rate of growth in jobs will reduce the unemployment rate in 2012, with fluctuations as an improved job market will bring more discouraged workers back looking for work.

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Mr Wolfson and Ms. Gibbs are deputy mayors of New York City. Here they list all the efforts made by Mayor Bloomberg to fight poverty in New York City and help the homeless during his years in office. They cite a 28% reduction in street homelessness since 2005, a 22% drop in school suspensions, a drop in welfare rolls by 25% with 900,000 New Yorkers moved from welfare to work, and a poverty rate that is flat over the last 12 years while the poverty rate in the U.S. is up 28%. They point to the last Bloomberg budget allocation of $9.2 billion for services to the poor and homeless- 83% higher than Bloomberg's first year in office. Of this $981 million was for services to the homeless, double that in 2002. 175,000 units of affordable housing were built.

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With housing, credit, the consumer and export markets all going out quickly in rapid sequence the predictions even with the Fed's stepping up to the plate with assets buildup to $5 trillion and the $1 trillion stimulus package Obama plans, it looks like 2009 and 2010 are going to be difficult years. After the 20% decline in 2008, BW's surveyed 45 economists see another 10% decline in house prices in 2009. Inflation sharply lower is expected down to 1.2% in 2009 from the 2.1% of 2008 end. The risks of a worse outcome than the 1973-75 and the 1981-82 downturns are high say economists at Citigroup and Chase JP Morgan, Global Insight. There is just too much happening at the same time and a self reinforcing dynamic that is not going to self correct anytime soon.

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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This report says the 1.5 million barrels a day is actually a 1.16 million barrels a day cut as Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola may just not cut production by their 341,000 barrels a day. To that Iran also has to cut its 200,000 barels a day. So the Saudis may end up having to do the cuts of about a million barrels a day with the Emirates and Kuwait. And Deutsche Bank says that it takes about 15 months for oil prices to stabilize after these cuts. So prices could keep falling well into 2009 as the recession deepens worldwide. Some anaysts say the Saudis ended up contributing to the global crisis through their minimal efforts to restrain oil prices or divert some of the petro dollars to new exploration, rather than to cheap liquidity that fueled the housing bubble.