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Why China’s Stock Market Bailout Just Might Work
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Stewart points out that Japanese government efforts to prop up stock prices by buying stocks in 1992 failed after 2 years when the fundamentals did not support the government effort. Experts say that even if the stock prices recover in China in 2015 after government efforts to prop up prices, this will be temporary if the economic fundamentals do not support such high valuations. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has a P/E ratio of 37 and the Shenzen Stock Exchange has a P/E of 80, very high valuations. Earnings numbers from smaller companies in China are also unreliable increasing investor risk. Additional issues are the timing of the government's effort to promote a surge in the stock market in 2014-2015. It comes as real estate and housing prices are in a bubble and the economy is slowing rapidly.
China Securities Regulatory Commission and oversight of financial markets in 2014-2016
12/09/2014
Efforts to rein in short term borrowing using riskier bonds as collateral for short term loans. Large increase in the use of margin financing creates problems of speculation. In one month alone, for November 2014, the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite makes a gain of 25%.
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China's stock market and mutual funds- 2010-2012
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Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
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Why China’s Stock Market Bailout Just Might Work
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Chinaâs Growth Doesnât Ensure Mutual Fund Gains
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Large risks in China's stock markets with the selloff beginning in July 2015
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Chinese Firms Discover Margin Lending’s Downside
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China Moves to Stabilize Stock Markets; Initial Offerings Halted
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China’s Market Rout Is a Double Threat
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China’s Bazooka Fails to Overwhelm
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The Man Tasked With Stopping China’s Stock Selloff
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China's stock markets 2013-2015
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Heard: China’s Flash Rally May Burn Too Bright
Wall Street Journal 12/05/2014
Chinese Stock Slump Contributes to Global Market Weakness
New York Times 12/09/2014
To Calm Its Markets, China Helps Guide a Sell-Off
New York Times 01/19/2015
Margin Trading Adds to Risks in China
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
China’s stockmarket: Skyward march
Economist 04/25/2015
China’s Stock-Market Boom Won’t Erase Bad Debts
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2015
Margin Trading, leveraging, and China's stock markets in 2015
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Margin trading reached over 1100 billion yuan in China's stock markets by Feb 2015, according to Wind Information. Action by regulators has failed to lower the leveraging practices in the stock market.
Grouped Articles
Margin Trading Adds to Risks in China
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
China’s stockmarket: Skyward march
Economist 04/25/2015
China’s Stock-Market Boom Won’t Erase Bad Debts
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2015
China Shares Suffer Worst Week Since 2008
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
China Stocks Are Battered Anew
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2015
Shanghai Gets the Hook as Margin Lending Turns
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2015
Xiao Wang, chairman, China Securities Regulatory Commission, March 2013 -
07/08/2015
Wang is former head of the Bank of China, one of four large state owned banks. A WSJ report shows that under Wang as CEO of the bank in 2009 it was the least profitable and the most likely to ramp up lending at the government's request. As a savy politician he was appointed to the Party Central Committee in 2012 and to the position at the regulatory body in March 2013. In efforts to meet party directions Wang has moved in conflicting directions, clamping down on margin financing and as the market selloff worsened even loosened restrictions for loans on homes to invest in the market. The huge surge in the market and the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges is now followed by a selloff in July 2015, which the government has no experince in handling following China's experiment with its own state oriented form of capitalism since 1990. The government plans to allow state owned enterprises with large debt to reduce the debt by investing in a surging market may be based on an erroneous assumption on how equity markets work. Lack of prior experience with equity markets on the downside is another handicap in China.
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The Man Tasked With Stopping China’s Stock Selloff
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Beijing’s Response to Stock Selloff Reveals Deep Insecurity
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Why China’s Stock Market Bailout Just Might Work
New York Times 07/09/2015
Memo to China: Your Market Moves Are Doomed to Fail
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2015
Cooling of China’s Stock Market Dents Major Driver of Economic Growth
New York Times 07/15/2015
Wall Street Journal 07/28/2015
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