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Bayer CEO, Marijn Dekkers, plans to divest its plastics business, called Material Science. The plastics division requires large investments with lower returns than can be made in health care or the agricultural crop science business. Crop Science generated earnings before interest and taxes of 1.81 billion euros in 2014, and Health Care helped by 5 new prescription drugs reported EBIT of 3.58 billion euros, compared to poor returns of 555 million euros on the polyurethane and polymers used for laptops to soccer balls in the Materials Science division. CEO Dekkers is a Dutch born executive who worked for 25 years in the U.S. Since taking over in 2010 he has brought a significant culture change to Bayer, by insisting on speed and agility from executives. Division heads with marketing backgrounds are preferred to science degrees, and the planning orientation of the company is being changed to one where the company executives are not afraid to take risks based on incomplete information. Dekkers prefers an IPO for the $10 billion plastics business to generate more cash and reduce the debt of 20 billion euros. He acquired the over the counter drug business of Merck for $14.2 billion, and has boosted drug sales with the introduction of Xarelto in partnership with J&J, eye treatment Eylea, cancer drugs Stivarga and Xofigo, pulmonary hypertension drug Adempas. Sales of these 5 drugs are expected to go up from 2.9 billion euros in 2014 to 4 billion euros in 2015, contributing significantly to Bayer's profits. Dekker's venture capitalist type focus on profit margins is showing results in share price performance- Bayer's share price has advanced 60% in 2015 mid-March price of 145.85 euros compared to the prior year month. In the small town of Leverkusen, Germany, where Bayer is located, there were initially fears that Dekkers was "too American" and too focussed on shareholder value to understand the need to respect tradition. Since then Germans have realized that Dekkers understands tradition and is only bringing necessary change- the transition to being a life sciences company makes sense to shareholders in Germany, for employee representatives on the supervisory board the guarantee of current level of 17,000 jobs in the plastics division for a few years shows his concern for job protection during the transition period. For Dekkers who left Holland in 1985, and has a U.S. passport with an American wife and kids who speak no Dutch or German, the important thing is to get the right balance- he says the system of 99-1 where 99% of the information had to be in before a decision could be made is making the change to 90-10 where only 90% of the information is now necessary to go ahead, even if he would like to see it at 80-20. Bayer still sponsors the local soccer team known as Bayer Leverkausen, and 26 other clubs. Dekkers steps down at the end of 2016....

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Brent crude drops below $60 by Dec. 15, 2014.

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Can the new intelligence assessment that Iran gave up the effort to make nuclear weapons three years ago affect oil prices and to what extent? At least it calms the anxiety that there is an unknown out there being the development of nuclear weapons in the backyard of Iraq where US is involved and in a major oil producing region. This should take some of the pressure off oil prices and any its significant in another way, that any developments in the middle east would be taken in a different light, not as a part of a cloud of uncertainty but taken by evaluating the new development on its own merits carefully. Interestingly this happened in the same week that another development ocurred. The President of Venezuela lost a referendum in Venezuela designed to givie him emergency powers by amending the constitution. Even by controlling most of the media and using oil money to support social programs and giveaways to the poor and working classes, Chavez lost the referendum that he initiated. It was not clear what would happen in Venezuela, and the Iran development was a surprise, so this also means that in international affairs educated people will look at a lot of different possibilities from now on before drawing any conclusions. In fact this is exactly what appears to have happened in the case of the intelligence on Iran, as mentioned here the new assessment was based on allowing different agencies and groups within the government to come up with different conclusions and then to test the facts again and again, and to question old assumptions....

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Anxiety in financial markets about exposure of French banks to Greece pulled down French bank stocks on August 10, 2011. Societe Generale shares were down 15%. A British tabloid the Daily Mail published an article on Societe Generale saying that it was in a perilous condition, and on the "brink of disaster." The Daily Mail later retracted its report. The rumors spread quickly in a jittery market, reminiscent of the rumors that affected Morgan Stanley at the height of the U.S. financial crisis in 2008. Sanford Bernstein analysts say in a report that the selloff in French banking stocks was based more on anxiety and the rising price of insurance of thinly traded credit default swaps, and not based on rational concerns about earnings and raising capital. Societe Generale says it has no exposure to Greek bonds maturing after 2020 on its books- to deflect fears of additional bank bondholder haircuts beyond 2020- and has taken a 395 million euro provision against losses on Greek sovereign bonds maturing upto 2020. The jittery condition of markets was also affected by rumors that France was about to be downgraded. Moody's, Fitch, and S&P reaffirmed that French credit ratings of triple A and stable outlook would not change....

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A detailed discussion of P/E ratios and opinion of different experts on why the U.S. stock market may be overpriced in 2012. The divergence between P/E ratios in Europe and the U.S. is of special concern. P/E ratios for 10 years in Germany and France are at 12, compared to 22 for the U.S. The gap between U.S. and German and French valuations is about 10%, compared to a 120 year average of 1.7 percentage points, says the chief investment officer of Citi Private Bank in London. Safety is one factor, but the divergence is too wide to be accounted for by safety alone.

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The newer generation of SUV's after the 2008 crisis for Detroit automakers. Comparison of the features of the newer vehicles from Chrysler, Ford and GM compared to the older vehicles. Fuel efficiency has increased, but is it enough to meet a change in customer preferences in the face of higher fuel prices in 2011-2012.

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Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

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The WSJ Editorial Board speaking for the business community traditional Republican groups finally takes up the election on issues of policy difference between Trump run Republican party and Harris run Democratic Party which it should have from Day One. The former president says something that has never happened in the last hundred years- policy will be decided after the election depending on what he decides to do. Cost of Living action is No 1 on voter priorities. "Drill, Baby Drill," is the whole Republican party platform for cost of living action. What is the Harris Democrats policy plan for cost of living action? WSJ says it is spending blowouts that caused inflation, the Green New Deal, entitlement expansions and student loan forgiveness.The real reason for the increase in cost of living comes from the overconcentration of supply chain by American business in China, on which every president Bush, Obama, Trump, did little or nothing. The lack of an effective vaccination program and ineffective vaccines in China by 2021 and 2022 led to the loss of the supplies from China leading to shortages for automobiles parts and other supplies and surge in prices in 2021-2023. Powell and the US central bank correctly raised rates but cautiously and waited for this to correct, president Biden brought manufacturing home through huge investments called the "spending blowout" that brought down the inflation from 9% to 3%. Some of that "spending blowout" went to chips and science to correct the errors of American Business and Reagan-Friedman theory of the Republican party that created this problem with a culture of utter  indifference to the ultimate costs of who makes what and where. The Inflation Reduction Act also tackled higher health and other costs paid by American workers and families, and invested in public services and in repairing the dilapidated crumbling American infrastructure. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment and why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it Ok for Republicans thet we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future. "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.     ...

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Alan Blinder points out that the political partisanship that has emerged in 2010 has not served America well, as it has deprived the government of the fiscal policy tools, which would be more effective than the Fed's only mildly effective tool of buying $100 billion a month of medium and long term Treasury debt. The country he says is tied up in partisan knots that prevents the use of the fiscal policy tools, and leaves the Fed with the choice of doing something only nudging the rates on government and private securites a bit (by 30 basis points for Treasury debt and 15 basis points for private securities as an example, not enough for more than a mild impact on corporate spending). The fiscal policy tools are he says of a wide variety and pack a lot more power, and he cites three as examples: offering significant lasting tax breaks for job creation, large enough to produce results (larger and long term than the HIRE program), government hiring directly onto public payrolls and government paying local and state governments for hiring at the local levels, the government offering to compensate states for a cut in the sales tax for a year to stimulate consumer spending. Would'nt this raise the deficit though? Blinder points out that the deficit problem lies in the future. Right now there is so much slack in the economy, that public spending will not crowd out private spending. And with Treasury rates at an all time low, Treasury can finance the larger deficit in the short term. A depreciation of the dollar or inflation, he says, is not a worry, because now there is worry about deflation, and the USA needs a lower dollar to push exports up and rebalance its economy. This does not slight the deficit issue and the culture of poor budgeting among both parties, as Reagan Budget Director David Stockman pointed out in an op-ed piece, but accomodates the real dangers and opportunities of difficult policy choices. This is why he laments the advertising campaign and public relations campaign against the 2009 stimulus bill, and the expected paralysis of fiscal policy from the extremely partisan 2010 midterm elections, and public opinion consumed by fear of deficits. Leaving the Fed with the unenviable choice of using only mildly effective tools. Other experts and columnists mention the risks associated with the Fed's large scale purchase of securities, if this leads to another asset bubble and subsequent collapse, and another bailout needed for financial institutions. Peter Eavis in one column in the WSJ points to the lack of effectiveness of the first round of quantitative easing of $1.7 trillion. And Kelly Evans, in the WSJ, points to the risks of "bad" inflation, if another round of quantitative easing by the Fed leads to increases in the price of commodities such as oil and food (such inflation falling heaviest on lower income households).The US Financial Regulatory Reform bill has received low grades, and recent standards for reserve capital in worldwide banking reforms are stretched out over a long period, leaving fragility in the economic system, if something were to go wrong....

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Jim Krane of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University, points to an important development- the increasing consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia that is shrinking its ability to be a reserve supplier in the Middle East when a Iraq, a Kuwait or a Libya's oil supplies are cutoff. Saudi population and industry is growing and is using up a quarter of its oil production. Consumption is at 3 million barrels a day, more than the oil consumed in Germany, and is growing at 10% a year. Use of oil is subsidized by the government and with social spending up in Arab countries a cut in subsidies is not expected anytime soon. Projections by Jadwa Investment of Riyadh show that the reserve margin will disappear by 2020. By 2038 Chatham House in London predicts Saudi Arabia will become an importer of oil. This is important because America's sanctions against oil imports from Iran require the Saudis to step up and act as the reserve supplier. This happened with Libya, and 1.5 million barrels a day were cutoff after the revolution. Iran exports 2.2 million barrels a day. This will keep supplies tight and keep pressure on oil prices in 2012-2013....

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Obama says oil sand leave a big carbon footprint in his interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, just before his visit for talks with Candian Prime Minister Harper in Ottawa, Canada. The talks will focus on climate change, whether the oil sands can continue to be exempt from regulation, and other issues including a "Buy America" provision.

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In Nevada sell federal land to cut housing costs in 2025. Some estimates show that 1.5 million homes can be built on Bureau of Land Management land within 2 miles of Las Vegas city limits. In Nevada 80% of the land is owned by federal government. After the Mexican American War in 1846 Nevada was transferred to control of US government from Mexico to end the war and it stayed that way.

Us president DJT supports using federal land and so does his Interior Secretary Don Borghum.

DJT says he will “open up new tracts of federal land for large-scale housing construction, and you’ll get it for a much lower price.” He would “create special new zones with ultralow taxes and ultralow regulations,” to create jobs.

“We’re going to open it up. We’ll start with a small portion. You’ll get it going, and then we’re going to open up large portions of land.”

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Automakers have huge problems servicing debt, with GM servicing $45 billion debt. Also all that inventory in trucks but also cars weighs heavily as cost for automakers, cars 28% overstocked, trucks 13% overstocked, as sales fall according to Credit Suisse analysts. And overseas bright spots are gone with global financial crisis. And Goldman estimates GM will use up $9 billion in 2009, and working capital cash balances need to be $11 to $14 billion. So do lower oil prices matter, not so much for automakers. And Chrysler is a bad choice for merger partner says a Merrill Lynch analyst because of its product and overexposure to the US market.

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Paul Krugman describes the situation of slowing inflation in America and the prospects for president Biden in 2024. In just a few months since the midterms inflation is receding. Shoppers are showing resistance to price increases in retail stores. The Fed under Jay Powell has taken a resolute stand against inflation slowing inflation in house sales and rental, in automobile pricing and other sectors of the US economy. New investments under the climate change bill passed in Congress and the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Bill, mean more factory openings and jobs in America. A milder winter in Europe is helping it tackle an energy shortage and bringing oil prices under control.

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Average return on U.S. IPO's for 2011 is a loss of 18% for institutional investors getting in on day one according to Dealogic analysis of 23 IPO's. For small investors the losses are 34%.

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A hybrid gas-electric bus costs 60% more, but is 30% more efficient for the hybrid model and 65% more fuel efficient for plug-in models, says a Navistar executive. Navistar is the first U.S. maker to bring out a hybrid bus model. Experts say buses are ideally suited for electric versions because of short routes within city limits and predicatable routes. School buses also spend a lot of time in depots where they can be charged easily. Trans Tech Bus is planning to start production of a electric school bus in partnership with Smith Electric Vehicles. Trans Tech's president says the new electric school bus will be priced so that districts could recover the added cost- a $30,000 premium at this time- in fuel savings of 3-5 years. The savings for diesel are about $60 a day for a school district near Fresno with poor air quality. Recharging the battery costs about $17.

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Lee Hockstader, writes the European Affairs column in The Washington Post. He visits the city of Wolfsburg, a town founded by the Nazis for their "strength through Joy," program. VW is cutting a fourth of its German jobs over 5 years, about 35,000 employees. Half of the 120,000 people in Wolfsburg work for VW. Germany faces deindustrialization as a result of its dependence on heavy industry, on automobiles, chemicals, metallurgical engineering. Its failure to digitize and to move ahead in AI and software presents a problem. While countries such as China surged ahead with bold investments in EV vehicles VW was slow to respond. Japan pushed forward in hybrids. India in digitizing fast. Cost of labor have caught up to inflation and rising, electricity costs are up, and profits from Chinese production are vanishing with China's BYD and Geely, and other Chinese auto companies taking away VW and GM market share. VW's US Tennessee EV plant faces an uncertain future with loss of EV subsidies by DJT executive orders. In the US the effects of deindustrialization underway were covered up for decades by Compliant Media and Economists with the idea that it brought consumers lower prices, a facade for not saying that labor was more compliant in Asia after a period of job banks in Detroit and other hindrances put up by labor in the US in the 1970's souring management. That generation and period is gone and America badly needs to get its act together. Here in Wolfsburg the schools supported by VW like the Wolfsburg New School will lose VW funding as well as the public services in the city from lower tax revenues. This is what happened in the US catching up to the last of the industrial players of the twentieth century now facing a competitive China and a future competitive India.   ...

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Oil prices are forecast to remain above $100 a barrel in 2012 because of higher social spending in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries after the democracy protests, and the threat of retaliation by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iranian threats of retaliation for increased sanctions has embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts.

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The US housing market in 2022 with sharp increase in cash out refinancing and home equity financing. Total home equity increased 20% in the first quarter to $27.8 trillion, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. About 60% of equity was withdrawn through cash out refinancing in 2021, according to mortgage data. Cash out refinancing simply adds the amount borrowed to the existing mortgage balance. The amount borrowed through such financing by homeowners adds to inflationary pressures with more cash borrowed on the house for home improvement projects, gardening projects, appliance spending and automobile purchases. The increase in the interest rates by the US Federal Reserve including the 0.75% increase in the rate announced on June 15 slows the amount of borrowing through cash out refinancing. The supply chain disruptions disrupted flow of goods at a time of high demand in 2021 following the lockdowns, and then the war in Ukraine added another layer of inflation from high gas prices. The combined effect with housing price pressures created the perfect storm in inflation the US is facing with the rest of the world. ...