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The Washington Post is critical of the military's arrangements for the transition to democracy in Egypt. It calls on the Obama administration to make the military in Egypt accountable for a return to democratic government in Egypt, including suspension of aid. The military's role in ousting an elected government which would have been tested in coming legislative elections is seen as a serious mistake.

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Story about a Quant's life, this a math smart kid, Peter Muller, who worked for a risk analysis firm called Barra Inc in Berkeley, California, and later joins Morgan Stanley to help set up its Quant trading business. "Pairs trading" is one of the strategies Quants have used in the past in which two stocks which have a strong historical relationship provide clues as to how to short one and by another betting that the historical relationship will assert itself. "Statistical Arbitrage" is a more complex version of this and Muller's specialty was in this field at Morgan Stanley's Process Driven Trading Group (PDT). This Group produced profits from trading of about $3.5 billion in ten years upto 2006. This group now contains about $6 billion of Morgan Stanley's own money and accounted for 7.2 % of Morgan Stanley's net income with profits of $540 million in 2006. In the two weeks prior to August 9, Morgan Stanley's PDT lost about $500 million as the mortgage crisis broke out and put a wrench in the normal workings of the Quant's strategy and the fact that there are so many Quants operating with computerized trading may have added to the problem. the PDT has since recovered some of its losses. And its by no means certain that this has shaken Morgan Stanley's continued pursuit of income from Quant trading operations. The story thats told about Peter Muller is interesting as he tries everything to find happiness leaving his job for a while and playing his own music on albums and in the streets of Barcelona and New York city subway stations to soothe his restless soul and still comes back to his old job. All this happens while he is still 43. ...

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Did U.S. Treaury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, ignore a key request by President Obama to present plans for the restructuring of Citigroup after the government bailout of Citigroup? Ron Suskind says this is what happened in his book on the Obama administration and how the White House operated to make key decisions. Ron Suskind, intervewed key members of the Obama White House economic policy team, Lawrence Summers, Christina Romer, Peter Orszag. In all Suskind conducted 700 hours of interviews for his new book in Sept 2011: "Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington and the Education of a President." According to the book, in early 2009 after Obama authorized a series of stress tests for banks he told Geithner to develop a plan for restructuring Citigroup. A month later at a meeting not attended by Geithner Obama raised a question about the status of the plan. He was told by Romer that no restructuring plan had been developed for Citi. Suskind says Geithner disagreed about a plan to restructure Citi and decided to ignore the request. Geithner and the Treasury Department say Obama asked Geithner to develop a backup plan to overhaul banks if the government was forced to keep a big ownership stake in the companies, and "there was fortunately never a need to put them in place." Geithner told Suskind that he doesn't slow-walk the President on any matter. Other aspects of the operation of the economic policy team that Suskind covers are a series of memos from top aide Pete Rouse raising questions that ongoing communication between some members of the economic team and Summers was giving Summers power to shape policy. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, is shown as trying to keep out the views of Romer and budget director Orszag from reaching the President without going through him. When Orszag gives a private report to the president on the deficit, Summers objects saying that this was immoral. Obama lacked the fresh ideas needed to tackle the problems created by the mortgage and banking crisis of 2008, when he used the Clinton administration economic policy team of the 1990's- Rubin, Bernanke, Summers and Geithner. Fresh approaches were needed two decades after Clinton's election in 1992, and the Bush administration that followed, as many of the problems developed during this period. The similiar embedded thinking was shared during the Clinton and Bush administrations and the economic advisors about dealings with the banking sector, but the situation for deficits, unemployment, housing, and the economy had completely changed requiring fresh approaches. ...

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Hardy and Merced take an inside look at what happened at Autonomy Inc that resulted in the charge of $8.8 billion by H-P in Nov. 2012. The problems start with the hiring of Lee Apotheker, a former CEO of German software maker SAP, as H-P's new CEO in the beginning of 2011. This comes after CEO Mark Hurd is fired over relations with a female employee. Apotheker starts out within months of joining H-P with some precipitious moves that raise questions about his decisions- he dumps the new H-P tablet within weeks of joining, and follows this with a move to shift H-P out of its PC business and focus on software. To do this he pays ten times revenue for Autonomy Inc., a British software maker which has grown through acquisitions and not invested enough in advancements for its software, according to a piece by Al Lewis in the WSJ in August 2011. Autonomy's business is software that analyzes and finds patterns in voluminious data like e-mails, online data, web surfing. The tech community and analysts sees this as a risky investment from the start with Apotheker overpaying for Autonomy. Apotheker has failed to look at H-P's record in acquisitions with the failed Palm acquisition costing H-P over a billion dollars. H-P has a poor record of integrating companies. This proves to be especially true with Autonomy with founder Mike Lynch keeping a distance from Palo Alto headquarters by staying mostly in his London office. Apotheker is fired by the H-P Board within months of taking office and the Autonomy managers including Lynch leave H-P in the following months. Alarmed by a falloff in Autonomy sales, H-P's new CEO Meg Whitman sent a team in May 2012 to review the books of Autonomy. This results in finding "serious accounting improprieties." The problems are caught when a senior finance official at the London Autonomy offices points them out. What Autonomy did before selling out to H-P is to sell low end hardware servers at a loss, and disguise the loss by inflating marketing expense, resulting in marketing expenses going up just as it was trying to sell the company as a pure software company. Middle men who sold the Autonomy software reported sales that were made up and licensing revenue was taken before it was received. Analysts at Forrester Research say Autonomy had not invested in R&D, and did not make regular software releases, had poor customer relations, no regular customer feedback, and lacked transparency on future product plans. The question goes back to how did Apotheker make such decisions without giving enough time, with the due diligence reported to the head of strategy Robison and not the CFO as is normal, and how did he fail to catch the obvious failure to invest in the company R&D? Apotheker described his approach in a February 18, 2011 interview with the WSJ's Ben Worthen. He told Worthen a joke about the Swedish parliament where members discuss a proposal to move driving from the left to driving on the right, by doing this gradually. Apotheker's analogy turns out to be misplaced, his approach brash and dangerous, and the H-P's Board's confidence in their new hire misplaced. It turns out that H-P's previous CEO Mark Hurd came in for criticism for not investing enough in R&D. The money wasted in these acquisitions leaves H-P at a severe disadvantage for increasing investments in R&D when margins and sales are declining in the printer and PC business. On Nov. 20, 2012, H-P share price dropped 12% to under $12. H-P reported a $6.9 billion loss in third quarter 2012. Revenue for the full fiscal year declined 5% to $120.4 billon, and earnings declined 23% to $8 billion. ...

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Elliott Abrams quotes former President George Bush from November 2003 when he asked the question: "Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?" Abrams, former deputy natonal security advisor for President Bush, says the autocratic regimes and dictators of the Middle East have offered a false choice to the US- its us or the Islamists. Roger Cohen also points this out in a recent article in the New York Times. For Tunisia he says this was never defensible. It is a largely secular nation with a literacy rate of 75% and per capita GDP of $9,500, and Ben Ali, the dictator of Tunisia, jailed moderates, human rights advocates, editors, anyone who represented hope and change. Abrams says Mubarak has done the same in Egypt. And he warns that if you make moderate politics impossible as Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia have done, then you make extremism more likely. Ruling by emergency decree for decades creates a real emergency, as has happened in Egypt. Bush made that speech at the 20th anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, and he reminded Americans that "sixty years of Western nations excusing and accomodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty." He admits that the Bush administration did not always conduct US diplomacy in this vein, but the President took the lead and the Obama administration's abandonment of that mindset is nothing short of a tragedy. Obama's policy of "engagement" actually endangers the US position as a supporter of liberty and freedom wherever it is stifled or muffled, because it turned a blind eye to the people themselves as it engaged with the dictatorial regimes in the Arab world and other countries. When the elections in Iran were stolen the Obama administration hesitated, waffled in its committment to liberty, fearing that it would affect nuclear negotiations. Obama did not -as of late Friday night Jan 28, 2011- call for free elections or clearly demand democracy. The law school analytical processes that Obama brings to the presidency and the demands of geopolitical diplomacy are impervious to the loud voices demanding freedom in countries denied liberty. Obama has forgotten the very same voices he passionately heard when he wrote in his first book that in the words "we hold these truths to be self-evident" he could hear the spirit of Douglas and Delaney, as well as Jefferson and Lincoln, the struggles of Martin and Malcolm and unheralded marchers to bring the words to life. He could hear the words of interned Japanese families, the voices of Russian Jews in lower East side sweatshops, of dust bowl farmers during the depression, all these voices clamoring for recognition and asking the question about what is community and how it can be reconciled with freedom. This failure to recognize these voices clamoring for freedom and economic opportunity is all the more striking because it was vision and a bold sense of purpose that energized the Obama campaign and both the vision and the bold sense have eluded the administration. Abrams calls for a clear unequivocal committment by the US government in favor of freedom and peaceful efforts to achieve it in the Middle East, because he says that as the demonstrators are telling the world outside supporting freedom is the best policy of all. ...

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The Bush administration's and Paulson's thinking that letting the government buy parts of the banking system was unthinkable, as recently as late September, may have led to squandering of valuable time. Now Paulson is following Gordon Brown's lead in planning an injection of capital in banks in return for equity stakes, using much of the $700 billion Congress has authorized, and Paulson says the package that passed Congress gives Treasury all the authority it needs to do so. The failure to be open to this thinking earlier may have cost valuable time in addressing this crisis. And now there are second thoughts on whether it was wise to let Lehman fall into bankruptcy, because the Administration had not correctly anticipated or calculated the true cost of the Lehmann bankruptcy in terms of the way it created a crisis in the rest of the financial system. Paulson has still not taken Gordon Brown's lead in guaranteeing lending between the banks which the British are doing as part of their plan. Is the administration too slow in its response and a bit wrongheaded or stubborn headed as each step of the crisis has moved faster than its ability to respond, and its response being one step behind. Frederic Mishkin of Columbia University a former Fed Governor says, "if you delay and create uncertainty, the amount of money you have to put up goes up." It appears from Paulson's remarks over time first turning down proposals for capital injection into banks for equity stakes, and now in making that route central to his plan, that Paulson and Bernanke simply did not anticipate the shutting down of credit markets and the collapse of stock market prices that occurred, and they had no backup plan prepared for a situation such as this. And on top of this the backup plan they went out to sell to Congress turned out to be short on details and in this sense naive for the amount requested. And then by refusing to consider alternatives such as capital injection for equity stakes, it was wrong headed, if not closed minded. William Poole who retired in August as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, says that " I am not aware that Treasury presented any evidence on auctions that have been successful when they are used for assets that are so heterogenous", referring to the reverse auctions that would take weeks to set up and would be terribly complicated to buy up troubled assets, as part of the plan presented to Congress in but 3 pages. Now the plan appears to be to let Fannie and Freddie, which were given $100 billion by the Treasury as authorized by Congress, to move ahead with the purchase of troubled mortgage securities, something for which Fannie and Freddie have the capabilities. In the end the crisis in confidence and near panic generated in the markets and the climate of fear may go way beyond the actual losses incurred from debt securities, and some of this may be the result of a clumsy and poorly thought out approach by Bernanke and Paulson. The cost of fixing the problem will be higher and the recession more prolonged because of this. It is a situation of capable people blinded by ideological reasons to see what is happening and in Bernanke's case not making enough of a case to Treasury about his reservations and his own thinking that capital injection was the right approach, as people familiar with the early planning say Bernanke argued that it would be easier and more efficient to inject capital directly into banks. ...

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Greenspan testifes before the House Oversight Committee headed by Congressman Henry Waxman (D., California). Congressmen read back quotations from Greenspan where he talked about the resilience and efficiency of American free markets and defended derivatives and complex financial instruments. Some referred to the comments he made saying that housing markets would not collapse and the worst may well be over. Almost by 10 to 1 the readers responding to a WSJ poll say Greenspan was responsible for easy money for most of the decade and his lack of the most elementary safeguards for the economy instead defending derivatives and complex financial instruments, and considering the bubble in house prices as not the Fed's concern. Many used expletives deleted or the words "clowns" or "illiterates" for Greenspan and associates at Treasury. A congresswoman from Minnesota asked pointed questions about state effforts to stop predatory lending that were nixed by the federal authorites under Greenspan and Treasury's watch. She thensuggested that they the stewards of the economy try pragmatism and commonsense for policy decisions. Describing the present crisis he seemed so out of touch that when asked about rising foreclosures and need to stabilize home prices, he still was trapped in his libertarian ideology and impulses. He said transfer payments should be tried instead as modifying the mortgages would not be good in the long run when markets return to normal. He said this crisis has still some months to go. In these observations he showed that he has still not grasped the full extent of the crisis, as a realistic assessment of the economy suggests that the economic downturn has not really hit in terms of unemployment and drops in consumption, which will hit in 2009 and 2010 and years beyond. He looked old and worn out showing every bit of his 81 years, which begs the question how could he have been chairman for 17 years till he was nearly 80, as he was still Fed chairman just 2 years ago. There are term limits for mayors, and for President, how is it that there are no term limits for Fed chairman? Should'nt the Clinton administration or the Bush administration have made a new appointment to get fresh blood, fresh thinking, just as corporations do. Wells Fargo chairman Kovacevich is supposed to retire, even though he has good skills for accomplishing the merger of Wachovia having done this for Norwest. Bloomberg is fighting the term limits to stay on for another term and will need a special vote. Doesn't senility hit the best of us, and isn't there an age when people should have to retire from these positions, long before they get close to 80. An assessment of Greenspan watching him over the years would show that he loved data and data analysis, and trusted data as almost carrying infallible weight. As most of the data he looked at was for the postwar expansion of the USA economy, he saw as he himself testified this week data that showed the economy with small setbacks to be sure but on a constant upward trend. The way down he said in response to a question the data looks completely different, with fear and lack of trust and other things making this pattern have no relationship whatsoever with the way up. Greenspan and the nation's misfortune maybe that for too long the country's political leaders trusted over two decades a man who did not have the healthy skepticism of data even when it appeared to reflect certainty, and did not have the healthy impulses for safety and safeguards that surpass all ideological thinking, and a respect for basic ethics and common sense that goes beyond everything and puts it above everything else. This is a misfortune because these are qualities required for good leadership especially leadership entrusted with such huge responsibilities which can never be taken lightly. ...

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Today GM announced that it is eliminating lifetime health coverage for about 100,000 white collar salaried retirees, as it is rapidly running out of cash to run operations. Also white collar salaries of current employees will be cut by 20 percent and the $1 a share dividend eliminated. This with other savings will save $1.5 billion annually GM estimates. Union contracts prevent this from taking effect for former factory workers even as the company is truly running out of cash. In paying the lifetime costs of hospital stays, surgeries, expensive drugs for retirees GM spends$4.6 billion in 2007 on health care for its one million employees and retirees and their dependents. This is larger that GM's entire active work force and a big reason GM has got into trouble. It also skewed management decisions in the wrong way. Management let it affect their strategy in the marketplace, they continued to run the company by emphasizing sales volume with frequent sales and discounting in the belief that the size was needed to support all these retirees goldplated medical care, care which does not exist in other industries and companies, even when GM coud least afford it. By carefully shutting down plants earlier as demand for some of its cars and vehicles was shrinking, and closing down some brands, GM could have focussed its efforts on the areas including smaller passenger cars and midsized cars and other models which were gaining popularity, and shifting ahead of the curve out of pickups and large SUV's in the face of higher gas prices. Its the collapse of the pickup and SUV market that exaggerated the impact even in October 2008, instead of the about 30% decline that the industry faced and GM faced in its cars, GM's dramatic drop in pickups and SUV's gave it an overall loss of 45% October 2008 over same month 2007. Without this aberrration of health care benefits from a previous growth era and a dominant GM - an anachronism in the present when GM was in decline and health care costs had mushroomed and company health care benefits cut back in industry after industry- and without the intransigence of the unions and the failure of management to build credibility, share the pain and convince the unions in good faith that this was unsustainable, GM could have had a much better shot of developing a strategy for renewal. Instead it sealed GM's fate, along with lack of foresight in taking decisive action to shift to higher fuel efficiency cars early in the curve, and closing unneeded plants and brands to focus on this task. In the end the gold plated benefits which were terminated today are lost for salaried retirees, and sooner or later the same is likely to happen inside or outside bankruptcy for union workers. Union workers who might then say what the salaried retirees are saying now, that if the company goes out of business, they would lose everything anyway, and could not blame GM for cutting them off. If only they had understood this earlier and accepted these facts, and if only managment had built the credibility and shared the pain so that company's interests came above union or management interests, as they should be for a company to grow or renew itself and grow. In the end union workers in the auto industry were living beyond their means, just as consumers in the USA were living beyond their means, and the outsized executive compensation also a kind of grab from another era. Renewal starts with getting a grip on reality, and reality slipped away from their hands....

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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Following the events in Charlottesville where a car drove into protesters, president Trump's remarks seemed to equate the actions of white supremacists to protesters. This has led to strong criticism from the business community with most business leaders withdrawing from the president's advisory councils from the business community- the Strategy and Policy Forum,  and Manufacturing Council. This includes the CEO's of Johnson and Johnson, Merck, JP Morgan Chase, GM, GE, 3M, and other companies. In his response president Trump disbanded both councils. JP Morgan Chase CEO Dimon said of the president's remarks- 'Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country." Members of these councils had hoped to use their presence to have a voice. Yet by August 2017, 6 months into the Trump administration this appears to be changing, with CEO's of many companies expressing the view that the Republican policies favoring business would not matter if the basic consensus on tolerance and openness and what the U.S. stands for is allowed to deteriorate. ...

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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The sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East worsen as the Saudi government of the royal family executes a Shiite cleric, Baqr al-Nimr, involved in Arab Spring related protests in Saudi Arabia calling for change in the country to improve the conditions of minorities. The continuing war in Syria with the support of Iran, the involvement of Russia and bombing of Turkey related ethnic groups, worsen tensions in the Middle East. The Obama administration's efforts to work with Russia to bring a peaceful resolution to the Syrian civil war, cited by WP's correspondent Liz Sly, may have lost credibility with Sunni states because of Russia's bombing campaign in Syria and on the border with Turkey.

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ says the state of opinion that asks does it matter, about the terrorist attack on Benghazi, is misplaced. He watched the movie "13 Hours" on what happened at Benghazi, and says a terrorist group had made plans to attack the American consulate, the depiction in the movie fairly accurate, and the Obama White House version with the 2012 election in two months not accurate. Henninger cites the indictment by a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia of Abu Khatallah. In June 2014 Khatalla was captured by Special Forces for the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. The indictment says Khatallah and militias "launched a violent attack on the U.S. mission on Sept. 11, at 11.15 pm.." following this up with an attack on the CIA annex.