Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession

08/16/2016

The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.

Linked Articles

Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016

DW.COM 08/15/2016

Bernd Riegert / Db

The Telegraph 08/04/2016

Szu Ping Chan

Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families

08/10/2016

The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.

Linked Articles

Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post

Washington Post 08/19/2012

Amy Goldstein, Amy, Goldstein

The Guardian 08/10/2016

David Smith

Angela Merkel's leadership during the immigration and Brexit crises by July 2016- increasing support for the European Union in Germany and personal support up to 59 percent in Deutschland trending poll

07/08/2016

By offering "calm and composed" leadership during the Brexit crisis, and being flexible in dealing with genuine concerns about immigration in Germany, Merkel shows Europe a better way than fractious British, French or American politics during a critical period when good responsible leadership is missing.

Linked Articles

Poll: Brexit vote boosts support for EU in Germany | News | DW.COM | 08.07.2016

DW.COM 07/08/2016

Wall Street Journal 12/21/2015

Letters To The Editor, Letters, To, The, Editor

"Deaths of Despair", the causes and effects in a larger context, and the drop in America's ranking in the Social Progress Index to 19th in 2016

07/01/2016

How the middle aged white Americans 45-54 are faring in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater vulnerabilities in health, education incomes, savings, quality of life, mortality, upward mobility, for this group. Tragically this means their children and the next generation is also affected in the way fewer opportunities are available in the future. The situation is unique to America with weaker social protection than Europe, and to Britain because of years of austerity. There are no quick fixes with easy slogans, and requires first a national awareness, national consensus, and may require the better part of a generation to solve and restore the hope and promise of Jefferson in making the "inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" available to all.

Linked Articles

Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink

WSJ 06/30/2016

WSJ 06/30/2016

Josh Zumbrun, Josh, Zumbrun

Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

The Donald Trump campaign for U.S. president in 2016- strategies from "The Art of the Deal"

02/25/2016

Thinking big embracing the entire electorate, using social media to the fullest, improvising often based on voter sentiment, commonsense approaches, worked for Trump in the Republican primaries in 2016. The failure of the other candidates to address issues of voter frustration, and splitting of the vote with many candidates, created the opportunity for Trump to succeed with his unconventional campaigning style coupled with a careful attention to what troubled voters.

Linked Articles

Donald Trump’s Campaign Blueprint: His Own Book

Wall Street Journal 03/03/2016

Monica Langley, Monica, Langley

Wall Street Journal 02/25/2016

Editorial

The problems threatening the white working class in America and the rise of cultural illiberalism

11/12/2015

Experts point to the economic anxieties of the white working class in America, a broad group that has increasingly fallen behind as technology advances in the 21st century with globalization and mobile capital, causing serious social fissures in society. One of the dangers is to the ideas of liberal society itself with the rise of cultural illiberalism, such as that presented by the Trump candidacy for president in 2016, and Marie Le Pen's National Front in France, as liberal elites in centre right and centre left lose their hold on working class voters.

Linked Articles

The Bleak Reality Driving Trump’s Rise

Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015

William A. Galston, William, A., Galston

Washington Post 11/12/2015

Andrew J. Cherlin, Andrew, J., Cherlin

A guide to understanding the Middle East and South Asia, 1980-2015, and what this means for Europe and the U.S. (1) - Iraq, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan

09/25/2015

Linked Articles

The Duel of Despots

Wall Street Journal 11/12/2015

Bartle Bull, Bartle, Bull

Wall Street Journal 09/25/2015

Neil Rogachevsky, Neil, Rogachevsky

The failure of the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia to take in refugees from war torn Syria and other parts of North Africa- 1500 for U.S. , 166 for UK, 800,000 for Germany

09/04/2015

Ignatieff of the Kennedy School and Kristof of the NYT say the inaction of Obama, Cameron, Harper and Abbott, is deplorable considering the gap between the 800,000 Merkel and the German people have openly welcomed and the 1500 the U.S. has accepted, and 166 the UK has taken in. There is hardly any mention of the issue by the leaders of the U.S. and Canada in September 2015, even as the global media has covered this daily. In Hungary the Orban government faile to remember the Hungarian uprising of 1956 and the violent crackdown by the Soviets, leading to a wave of refugees reaching other parts of Europe and the U.S.

Linked Articles

Refugees Who Could Be Us

New York Times 09/04/2015

Nicholas Kristof, Nicholas, Kristof

New York Times 09/05/2015

Michael Ignatieff, Michael, Ignatieff

China's efforts to transition to a new model for development in 2016-2017, based on consumers and not on heavy state spending

08/25/2015

Xi-Jinping and Li Keqiang face a challenge and choices not unlike the one facing Deng Xiaoping in the 1980's- now the challenge is how to move China beyond the middle income status it has achieved with all its accompanying problems of environmental destruction, corruption and aging population.

Linked Articles

A crisis of faith

Economist 01/23/2016

Economist.Com

New York Times 08/25/2015

Eduardo Porter, Eduardo, Porter

Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece

07/06/2015

Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.

Linked Articles

IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief

Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015

Ian Talley, Ian, Talley

New York Times 07/06/2015

Gikas Hardouvelis, Gikas, Hardouvelis

Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020

05/14/2015

With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.

Linked Articles

Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change

New York Times 06/05/2015

John Schwartz, John, Schwartz

Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015

Raymond Zhong And Niharika Mandhana, Raymond, Zhong, And, Niharika, Mandhana