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Denning says that because of the enormous repercusions on Iran's economy of a war in the Persian Gulf, a more likely scenario is not the cutoff of supplies of Iranian oil altogether but a smaller list of buyers for Iranian oil, making Iran sell the oil at a discount. Saudi Arabia's and Libya's added production would bring more oil to the market. The impact will be larger on Europe because of the decline in the value of the euro, with Brent crude on a 12 month average basis costing 14% more now than in the peak price in 2008. By comparison in dollar terms the comparable figure is 4% higher for the U.S. At a price of Brent crude of $120 in 2012, according to Citigroup, energy costs would take up 9% of world GDP, putting pressure on a economic recovery in Europe and the U.S.

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Labor conditions in Chinese factories that supply Walmart, Disney, Dell and other companies and in China's manufacturing in general.

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China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has approved $156 billion in new infrastructure projects, new subways, highways and other projects in recent weeks. The response is more carefully planned than the stimulus projects in 2009-2010, which are now seen as excessive response creating the prospect of bad loans in the banking system and causing inflation. The stimulus spread over 2 years, 2009 and 2010, was by government's initial estimates about 4 trillion yuan and this does not include additional local government spending as the government encouraged spending. This time the stimulus is about 1 trillion yuan or $158 billion, 2% of GDP, spread over 4 years, with projects going through careful review, according to Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei. The Chinese government wants to avoid losing gains made in controlling a property bubble and holding down inflation.

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Li Keqiang, China's new premier, entered Peking University in 1978 by excelling in merit exams. Li and a fellow student, Yang Baikui, translated the English book "The Due Process of Law" by British jurist Lord Denning. Professor Gong Xiangrui, brought the book to China and educated his students in the ideas of constitutional law and western liberalism. Yang says Li learned English on his own and meticulously carried a stack of notecards with English on one side and Chinese translation on the other. Li would study the cards while waiting for a bus or in the line at the school cafeteria. Li has political discusions with students from that time, some of whom joined the pro-democracy demonstrations of 1989. He is the son of a mid level county official from Anhui province and moved in the party ranks through diligent effort. Li's doctoral thesis is in economcs and he is expected to focus on economic changes, with Xi Jinping, the new president, taking the lead in making changes to the political system. Fellow students from Li's days at Peking University say the difference between them and Li is the pace of democratization, with Li looking at it as a longer process. Recent articles by Li Keqiang on economic change show his emphasis on urbanization as a way to improve agricultural conditions with a smaller number of farmers improving producitvity in agriculture, and the importance of creating a better social safety net for people in China....

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Hon Hai has about 800,000 workers. About 400,000 are employed in the southern industrial town of Shenzhen. After a number of worker suicides (13 people have committed or attempted to commit suicide in 2010 so far), the company has announced that it will give 20% raise to its workers. Workers at one plant in Longhua are paid 900 yuan or $132, the legal minimum wage in Guangdong province, though many workers work overtime at 1.5 times the standard rate. The company is secretive about its activities and uses the trade name of Foxconn. It makes personal computers and other products for Apple, HP and other companies. The company uses a military style discipline and it is reported that there is excessive stress in working conditions.

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Germany benefits from the lower value of the euro in relation to other currencies. Germany's exports to the eurozone as a percentage of all exports increased from 38.4% in 2009 to 41.7% in 2011, according to the Germany Federal Statistical Office and the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce. Exports to China increased from 4.64% to 6.11%, and to Asia from 11.8% to 13.73%, and to the U.S. from 6.77% to 6.95%. This increases the gap between Germany and other eurozone countries with smaller exports. Ireland with its large export base and foreign investment is likely to benefit from the lower euro. German companies VW, BMW, Mercedes, Heidelberg Cement and EADS also benefit from the weaker euro. France's Peugeot with sales concentrated in Europe does not benefit from the weaker euro compared to German auto companies with higher sales overseas, especially in China.

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Class of 1977 was first after the Cultural revolution. In 1977 China held its first competitive national university entrance examination since 1965. A period of 12 years of the cultural revolution till 1977 were a lost decade in terms of education and getting the best minds and training them for careers in various fields for development and modernization. The year 1977 with the reinstatement of university entrance exams was remarkable in the outpouring of energy as young people prepared for entrance exams in a period of a few weeks. Textbooks were hard to find, for over ten years most had no schooling and worked in rural areas doing farming work. Students scrambled to find teachers to guide them. 273,000 were admitted to universities that year- only 4.7% of the the students taking the test. In comparison 58% of nine million students in 2007 were admitted to universities three decades later in 2007. Li Keqiang is one of these students who worked really hard to get into Peking University. He is the new prime minister, part of the new generation of leaders in China. Others include Zhou Qiang, governor of Hunan province, Wang Yi, party secretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry, and Jin Liqun, vice president of the Asian Development Bank, filmmakers Yimou and Kaige. and the writer Chen Cun. ...

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China announced that it would make its exchange rate flexible, but also emphasized that it would do so gradually. What this means is that China will have a managed floating exchange rate. China followed a managed floating policy between mid 2005 and mid 2008, with a 21% upward valuation during that period for the yuan. During the 2008 crisis upto now the rate was pegged. The yuan was pegged at 6.83 yuan to the dollar. China is now rebalancing its economy so that it is not overly dependent on exports. The idea is to let domestic wages and domestic consumption pick up the slack in the markets of Europe and the USA. Europe is taking up austerity measures, and the mood in the US is shifting towards concern about growing budget and trade deficits. See the groups for "China wages" and "China workers."

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Xi Jinping visits a dairy farm in Ireland and kicks a ball at a Gaelic football game. A new view of the Chinese leader up close in contacts with people in Ireland. Ireland takes on the presidency of the EU in 2013.

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China's new leader Xi Jinping and the prospects for U.S. and European business. Little is known of how Xi will change things except for his personal style during his visit to Iowa during the U.S. trip.

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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In an essay published on March 16, 2012, in Seeking Truth, the Communist party's main ideological publication, Xi Jinping cited the importance of consensus decisionmaking in the Chinese leadership now and in the future. "All decisions on major undertakings must adhere to the Party's principle of democratic centralism... They can't be decided by an individual or a small group of people... but should be decided according to collective wisdom and strict procedure." The efforts of Bo Xilai, the Communist leader in Chongqing, were seen as "playing to the crowd." By reviving Mao theory and advocating policies which would mean more participation by the state in the economy, Xilai was moving in the opposite direction of a World Bank-DRC Report on the Chinese economy- supported by the next premier Li Keqiang- that calls for less dominantt role of the state owned companies in the economy. Bo Xilai recently resigned as party head in that province. The essay is based on a speech on March 1 by Xi Jinping at the Central Party School, the Communist party's leading think tank. Xi said "if you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd, and seek personal gains and high office, and if you don't aim for higher goals, it is not only difficult to push forward the work of the Party and the people, but also damages the Party's image, lets people down, and makes them lose faith in us." This sets the tone for consensus leadership in China, based on collective wisdom and careful thinking, into the next generation....

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The Indian government reports the benchmark wholesale price index for April 2012 was at 7.23%, up from 6.89% in March. The wholesale price index measures bulk sales between corporations and is considered a better measure than the old consumer price index, which lacks representative data from all regions. The wholesale price index does not include services, which make up half of the economic output. A new CPI has been introduced, but more data has to be gathered for it to become a dependable measure of inflation. Core inflation excluding food and energy, which focusses on the manufacturing sector, increased 5.1%.