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Did Putin overreact in Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014? Russia and the dangers to the Russian economy of not maintaining good relations with the West
08/13/2008
Russia tones down its overreaction as 66% of Russians polled in June say Russian forces should not enter Ukrainian terrritory. Putin and Russians in the administration policy making may have underestimated the reaction in the U.S. as reflected in this WSH editorial saying Americans should remember the words of Gen. Lucius Clay during the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent airlift. This could be why analysts in Russia now maintain that good relations with the West must be maintained, and entry of Russian forces into Ukraine would have disastrous consequences for Russia in terms of western sentiment and foreign investor sentiment. In such a situation Germany would be likely to support the stronger U.S. position seeing this in terms of the language used in theBerlin Airlift of 1948. For Germany and Russia this would be reversing the hard won gains of building relations from the time of Brandtand Kohl till today, fifty years of effort to build better relations and economic relationships- just too much for sober heads in Moscow Paris, and Berlin to accept, and closing another chapter in Russia's interactions with the West.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2008
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters CourseNew York Times 07/11/2014
Markets recover in Russia after Russia halts the war in Georgia.
08/12/2008
The effects on the markets and on economic activity is not significant.
Linked Articles
Investors Struggle With the Uncertainty of Fighting Between Russia and Georgia
New York Times 08/12/2008
Russia Says It Has Halted Military Action in GeorgiaNew York Times 08/13/2008
Reports linking Karzai's brother to heroin trade fit in with Scweich's account in the NYT.
07/27/2008
Schweich is deputy to Anne Patterson Asst Secretary of State for international narcotics and law enforcement. His story in the New York Times fits in with accounts of links to the heroin trade of Karzai's brother who heads the provincial council in Kandahar. This also shows how trust is being lost in the Afghan government among the people as stated in a cable by a senior career foreign service officer from Britain in Kabul to the French government.
Linked Articles
Reports Link Karzai’s Brother to Heroin Trade
New York Times 10/05/2008
Is Afghanistan a Narco-State?New York Times 07/27/2008
Roche's bid for complete ownership of Genentech.
07/22/2008
Can the long standing independent operation of Genentech's discovery team under Levinson be maintained under the effort to integrate Genetech more into Roche. Will it result in synergies removing "a Chinese wall" as a head of Roche R&D puts it or will it lead to the loss of key members of the team over time especially as they were not brought into the discussion process about this move leaving them in confusion.
Linked Articles
Roche's Big Hurdle with Genentech
BusinessWeek 07/24/2008
Roche Bid Blindsided GenentechWall Street Journal 07/22/2008
How good were the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of 2012?
07/16/2008
Reilly questions the leveraging aspect of the Fed's 2002 stress test results as they leave U.S. banks leveraging at between 20-30 times capital, the situation that prevailed before the crisis. Experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago pointed out how the process of deleveraging works in reverse before the collapse of Lehman in 2008- for every $1 of bank losses the deleveraging cycle reduces bank lending by $20- $30.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
US energy policy in cars showed the Detroit automakers falling way behind the Europeans and the Japanese in this chart.
07/06/2008
Detroit automakers sticking with the status quo let a wide gap build up in fuel efficiency and smaller cars with the Europeans and the Japanese. Upto the point that it became difficult for them to make a profitable small car because they had less expertise in that area.
Linked Articles
American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot
New York Times 07/06/2008
GM plans $500M for 45-mpg small carDetroit News 08/22/2008
Geneal Motors Board and its top management hobble along without a vision or timely decisions at critical turning points.
06/28/2008
The lack of vigorous discussion at the Board and top management levels of Gneral Motors is the most striking thing about the company. Classic example how the larger and more successful an institution, there is no assurance that even the vital skills of vigorous discussion and openness to fresh thinking promoted by its founders like Alfred Sloan in this case in one of his meetings, that these skills will be available in the future.
Linked Articles
GM's Massive Quarterly Loss Adds to Turnaround Pressure
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2008
McCain Offers Aid, No 'Bailout' on AutosWall Street Journal 06/28/2008
Differing timelines for Bill Ford and Mullaly at Ford and Wagoner at GM in their shift to smaller cars.
06/04/2008
GM was late in the shift to smaller cars than Ford even as the shift was taking place. Both companies though remained mired in a decades long stagnation in fuel efficency even as companies like Honda moved forward, and as the gap with the Europeans and the Japanese in the technology and skills of making small cars widened.
Linked Articles
G.M. Closing 4 Plants in Shift From Trucks Toward Cars
New York Times 06/04/2008
Bill Ford on Tipping Points and Thinking SmallBusinessWeek 07/31/2008
IHS Energy Associates's Yergin sees shale technologies changing the energy business by 2020, and IEA misses this completely
05/22/2008
Long term forecasting is a difficult business. IEA's 2015 forecast missed the situation in 2015 completely. Yergin was right but did not see how fast this would happen with oil prices down to $50 per barrel in 2015 and prices at the pump below $2.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2011
Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production CrunchWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
Board meetings at GM and the how the culture and style of management stalled decisions on fuel efficiency and small car development.
05/15/2008
The evolution of the old management styles and attitudes as Ford brought in outside management and Bill Ford took a new tack, and at GM where old management plodded on inexorably in the old way. Which is quite different from what Alfred Sloan had advocated in his memoirs when he insisted on discussion and debate on critical decisions in board meetings for them to be worthwhile.
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 05/15/2008
Bill Ford on Tipping Points and Thinking SmallBusinessWeek 07/31/2008
FDIC Bair's proposal to aid homeowners anticipating the banking and mortagage crisis.
04/30/2008
FDIC Sheila Bair seen in retrospect after her anticipation of the mortgage and credit crisis and helping prepare FDIC for it. And for the comprehensive approach she took and which later convinced people at Treasury who had earlier adopted a case by case approach not realizing how deep and far reaching this crisis would be.
Linked Articles
Agency’s Head Expects Banking’s Crisis to Worsen
New York Times 08/27/2008
Bair Proposal Seeks Government Loans To Aid HomeownersWall Street Journal 04/30/2008
Marchionne's transformation of Fiat, followed by the transformation at Chrysler
04/24/2008
How Marchionne accomplished the transformation at the two companies.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/24/2008
Fiat Will Hike Stake in ChryslerDetroit News 04/21/2011
ACA- Insuring the CDO's
04/03/2008
The insurance itself was not insurance but a chance to use different accounting rules to take the issuance of collateralized debt obligations to new heights. ACA was an outfit by the river issuing flood insurance. It had an A rating and was supposed to insure AAA securities.
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 04/03/2008
Building WonderlandNew York Times 04/06/2008
Putin and Sashkavili, two different men and their different backgrounds exacerbate the conflict in Georgia.
08/12/2008
Shows how the bold and impetuous Sashkavili could because of his relative youth and inexperience may have overreached in his efforts to integrate South Ossetia into Georgia.
Linked Articles
Putin Calls Shots to Salve Old Wounds
New York Times 08/12/2008
Rebuke of a President, in the Boom of ArtilleryNew York Times 08/12/2008
Afghanistan opium farming in the south adding another twist to the Afghan war.
07/27/2008
Schweich's and Rory's story and articles on the Afghan war and the new twists and the anitforeign Afghan sentiment. Friedman's points about the dangers of not carefully understanding what is going on in the field and finding the best way to handle it without getting caught up in popular rhetoric and mindless slogans.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/30/2008
Is Afghanistan a Narco-State?New York Times 07/27/2008
The presidential candidates Obama and McCain, agents of change or agents of lobbyists?
07/23/2008
Fannie and Freddie takeover and the reporting of high level ties with lobbyists of both candidates shows the agents of change argument like the free markets argument "as only a thin veneer" as one expert puts it. In this case though the lobbyists who are in other roles as close advisors to the two candidates and the candidates themselves may not realize that politics as usual here had huge implications. Without the hard work of Secretary Paulson and Bernanke the collapse of Fannie and Freddie could have endangered the American economy, not an overstatement, and could also have serious ripple effects all over the world economy.
Linked Articles
For ’08 Rivals, a Skein of Ties to Loan Giants
New York Times 09/10/2008
The Fannie Mae GangWall Street Journal 07/23/2008
Wind Energy and transmission lines that were built for another era that are a bottleneck.
07/19/2008
Transmission lines built for another era are a road block in the rapid development of wind energy as wind turbines are located in the sparsely populated areas like Kansas and the transmission capacity does not exist to the areas of high demand along the eastern and western seaboard.
Linked Articles
Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits
New York Times 08/27/2008
Texas Approves a $4.93 Billion Wind-Power ProjectNew York Times 07/19/2008
The apathy in GM's Board with an ever downward spiral.
07/07/2008
GM's Board is not having the vigorous discussion that one expects to see in a company going on a downward spiral.
Linked Articles
GM's Massive Quarterly Loss Adds to Turnaround Pressure
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2008
GM Weighs More Layoffs, Sale of BrandsWall Street Journal 07/07/2008
General Motors Management
07/02/2008
Questions raised about General Motors Management and also indirectly about the insular Board of Directors as GM's market share and stock reach a low not reached for several decades and both are comfortable with the status quo.
Linked Articles
GM Weighs More Layoffs, Sale of Brands
Wall Street Journal 07/07/2008
Can Teflon Last for GM's Wagoner?Wall Street Journal 07/02/2008
Sales of the Honda Civic, Toyota Prius,Ford Focus and the Honda Fit , all smaller cars are doing well
06/20/2008
Even so Toyota will not go ahead with making the Prius at the new plant in Blue Springs, Mississippi, is a sign of the severity of the economic downturn that is shaping up for 2009 and 2010.
Linked Articles
The Smaller the Better, Automakers Are Finding
New York Times 06/20/2008
Toyota delays new Prius plantDetroit News 12/16/2008
Geithner's style and the contrast with Summers as they contend for Treasury Secretary
05/30/2008
Geithner's has a prepared structure of questions which he uses to get informed, and other aspects of his style and how he has approached crises in the past.
Linked Articles
Summers and Geithner, Two Contenders for Treasury Job, Have Close Career Ties
Wall Street Journal 11/08/2008
Fed's Fireman On Wall Street Feels Some HeatWall Street Journal 05/30/2008
How all carmakers and Detroit automakers in particular missed what was happening in the economy and the market with dire results.
05/20/2008
Even as late as May 22, 2008 Ford pared its outlook to 14-15 million cars as reported by Jeff Bennett in the WSJ. That puts the situation in October 2008, with a 30-40% drop in sales year over year only 5 months away.
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Ford Motor Pares OutlookWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
Karen Elliott House, expert on Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, on the U.S., the EU, and Saudi Arabia- demographics, aspirations and the princes 2007-2014
05/14/2008
Pulitzer prize winning journalist for reporting from the Middle East and expert on Saudi Arabia, Karen Elliott House, describes the changes in Saudi Arabia with the huge young demographic, and what it means for Saudi society, U.S.-Saudi relations, meeting the aspirations of young people.
Linked Articles
As the Middle East Burns, the Saudis Ease Up at Home
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2014
Our Friends in RiyadhWall Street Journal 05/14/2008
The steep decline in Cherry's car sales in China and the precarious condition of the Chinese consumer- 2008
04/24/2008
The precarious condition of the Chinese consumer and first time buyer of cars, with no safety net in the economy for health care or unemployment. The severe downturn for Cherry and why GM cannot look to China for any kind of relief.
Linked Articles
With First Car, a New Life in China
New York Times 04/24/2008
China's Car Makers Seek Different Help: Lower Sales TaxesWall Street Journal 11/20/2008
Greenspan and his philosophy that let him take such an ambitious experiment in unrestrained markets.
04/08/2008
Grennspan took huge risks in his ambitious experiment with the American economy of a philosophy that simply said allow markets to operate unrestrained and trust in humans benevolent intentions and enlightened self interest. Goodman and Ip document the details. Did he believe that there was something miraculous that would prevent things from imploding, something inherently sacred about an idea of markets, when plain common sense like Buffets said that the arithmetic did not add up and in the end thats all that counts common sense.
Linked Articles
Taking Hard New Look at a Greenspan Legacy
New York Times 10/09/2008
His Legacy Tarnished, Greenspan Goes on DefensiveWall Street Journal 04/08/2008
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