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Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (4) the elections in France and Germany in 2017, and chancellor Merkel likely to link granting benefits of the single market to free movement within the European Union
08/16/2016
Chancellor Merkel has clearly stated that she sees the benefits of a single market going along with the idea of free movement within the European Union. With elections in 2017 and after not giving into Eastern European states in 2016, Merkel is likely to again remind Germany and France of the the true spirit in which the founders setup the European Union.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
EU Governments Gird for Steely New British LeaderWSJ 07/12/2016
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
The problems threatening the white working class in America and the rise of cultural illiberalism
11/12/2015
Experts point to the economic anxieties of the white working class in America, a broad group that has increasingly fallen behind as technology advances in the 21st century with globalization and mobile capital, causing serious social fissures in society. One of the dangers is to the ideas of liberal society itself with the rise of cultural illiberalism, such as that presented by the Trump candidacy for president in 2016, and Marie Le Pen's National Front in France, as liberal elites in centre right and centre left lose their hold on working class voters.
Linked Articles
The Bleak Reality Driving Trump’s Rise
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
The missing working class - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/12/2015
Manuel Valls of France and Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem- two perspectives on the Greece crisis following the referendum of July 5
07/09/2015
Linked Articles
Eurozone Finance Chief Recounts Brinkmanship That Led to Greek Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/17/2015
Greek Plan Accepts Austerity to Get Debt ReliefNew York Times 07/09/2015
The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
04/17/2015
The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.
Linked Articles
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic DiscordWall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Large losses of investors as the Swiss National Bank removes its cap on the Franc in Jan. 2015- from brokerage firm FXCM to retail investors
01/19/2015
Linked Articles
Swiss Franc Bets Turned on a Dime
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2015
Surge of Swiss Franc Triggers Hundreds of Millions in LossesWall Street Journal 01/19/2015
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
Air France-KLM's Transavia low cost airline plan and the competition with Ryanair
09/11/2014
Linked Articles
Air France-KLM Restructuring Puts New Focus on Its Low-Cost Airline
New York Times 09/11/2014
Air France Scales Back Transavia Plan, Giving In to Striking Pilots’ DemandsNew York Times 09/25/2014
Bolivia and the Pope Francis visit- showing a way for the "grassroots" empowerment idea, prudent financial management, increasing growth rate and attracting investors
02/16/2014
Linked Articles
In Fiery Speeches, Francis Excoriates Global Capitalism
New York Times 07/11/2015
Turnabout in Bolivia as Economy Rises From InstabilityNew York Times 02/16/2014
Getting economic policy right- A second look at Japan, the European Union and the U.S. in 2014-2015
06/09/2013
In taking a second look, economists Stiglitz and Krugman ask if much derided Japan has avoided the worst effects of unemployment that have affected Spain, Italy, Greece, and France in the eurozone, and for the the long term unemployed in the U.S. And in doing so also avoided the widening income and wealth gaps opened up in the other industrialized countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/30/2014
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary TaleNew York Times 06/09/2013
Funding infrastructure needs in Asia and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
02/14/2013
Led by China, and with founding members India, S. Korea, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Italy, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is intended to provide much needed financing for infrastructure in Asia. Huge bottlenecks for development exist in Asia's developing countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, which can only be tackled through innovative methods of financing. China which has moved ahead in infrastructure development is providing the leadership for this bank. Experts say Europe is right to join, and the U.S. should have supported the idea at the early stage.
Linked Articles
Hostility From U.S. as China Lures Allies to New Bank
New York Times 03/19/2015
Hot Topic in Moscow Talks: How to Fund InfrastructureWall Street Journal 02/14/2013
The part-time low wage jobs generated by the American economy in recent years, especially since 2008
11/06/2012
The biggest challenge facing the American economy is high unemployment and the lack of well paying jobs that formed the core job base of the middle class. Jobs generated since 2008 are largely low wage part-time work in retail and related industries. Wages have also fallen sharply in manufacturing industries as the U.S. competes with Asian manufacturers.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/07/2012
A Part-Time, Low-Wage EpidemicWall Street Journal 11/06/2012
The EU debate between France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel before and during the EU's Oct. 2012 meeting
10/17/2012
The issue was direct aid to Spanish banks and the early setup of an EU banking supervisor so that Spain could get early debt relief as its economy struggles with high unemployment of over 25%. Chancellor Merkel turned down direct aid to Spanish banks, and partly relented on banking supervision by agreeing to have the legislation completed by Jan 2013 and the actual setup of the supervision authority during the course of 2013, probably after elections in Germany in Sept. 2013.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Hollande fires warning shot at Merkel over austerity on eve of EU summit | World news | guardian.co.ukThe Guardian 10/17/2012
U.S. president Obama and prime minister Narendra Modi of India- forging a new chapter in relations
06/06/2016
Linked Articles
President Obama and India’s Modi Forge an Unlikely Friendship
The New York Times 06/06/2016
A renewed U.S.-India partnership for the 21st century - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/30/2014
The EU's evolving relations with Turkey in 2016- Germany's Merkel and the Erdogan government reach an agreement on refugees in March 2016
03/07/2016
Merkel facing populist pressures and opposition from the CDU to accepting more refugees tries to get Turkey to stem the flow and send refugees back to Turkey. The Erdogan government with its own problems and seeking a closer relationship with the EU following the Russian bombing of the Turkmen in Syria and shooting down of a Russian plane approves the agreement.
Linked Articles
Stakes Are High for Germany’s Angela Merkel in Success of New Migrant Deal
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2016
Turkey Places Conditions on E.U. for Migrant HelpNew York Times 03/07/2016
Pope Francis's roots in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and the message of humility, a humbler Church and concern for the poor, that resonate in the U.S. and around the world
09/18/2015
Linked Articles
A Humble Pope, Challenging the World
New York Times 09/18/2015
Poll: Americans widely admire Pope Francis, but his church less so - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/20/2015
The new multiyear program proposed by Germany and France to replace the June 2 proposal, following the Greece July 5, 2015 referendum, which sets more reforms
07/07/2015
Linked Articles
Merkel’s German Critics Say Greek Bailout Was Doomed From Start
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2015
Eurozone Sets Sunday Deadline for Greece Financing DealWall Street Journal 07/07/2015
Deep differences in 2015 between Alexis Tsipras of Syriza and the Merkel government in Germany on debt forgiveness and the bailouts for Greece
01/26/2015
The deep differences between Greeks and Merkel operate at two levels. On the level of austerity policies Greece shares the view with other EU countries, the governments of Hollande in France and Renzi in Italy that austerity is not the best course for the eurozone. This view is also shared by people in Spain facing unemployment exceeding 20%, though the government of Rajoy in Spain like that of Samaras in Greece lived with the austerity policies with some changes. At this level there is also support from within Merkel's coalition government from Social Democrats. The other level of deep differences is on debt forgiveness and bailouts where Greece has to find its own way out in negotiations hoping that the EU and the IMF will agree to make concessions based on action taken by Syriza to ensure prudence in fianncial management. On issues such as minimum wage one would expect Syriza to be firm and make concessions where the hardship does not fall on the poorer and working class, winning support from the Social Democrats in Merkel's coalition. Beyond the symbolic moves and posturing the actual negotiations are likely to take into account the eurozone's need for help on the fiscal side desired by the ECB's Draghi to support monetary easing to fight deflation, and the need to keep the eurozone intact at a sensitive time. Syriza for its part is aware that a majority of Greeks favor staying in the eurozone.
Linked Articles
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
A young, impatient leftist is Greece’s defiant new face - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/27/2015
Much needed boost from lower oil prices for eurozone countries Germany, France, Italy and Spain
10/09/2014
For countries like Germany in the eurozone with what Draghi calls "fiscal space" but did not use it, the drop in oil prices from $100 to $65 in 2014 offers relief at the right time to get back to growth in 2015.
Linked Articles
Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in GermanyNew York Times 10/09/2014
Lufthansa low cost carrier Eurowings and Air France-KLM low cost carrier Transavia in 2015- an effort to setup separate airlines to remain competitive
09/28/2014
Linked Articles
Lufthansa Chief Carsten Spohr Defends Airline’s No-Frills Push
New York Times 12/08/2014
Air France Pilots End Two-Week StrikeNew York Times 09/28/2014
France's Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi of Italy call for lower taxes and relaxing austerity drive in 2014-2015
02/26/2014
Linked Articles
New French Premier Revisits Deficit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2014
Renzi's Italian JobWall Street Journal 02/26/2014
Steadily growing automobile market in China in 2014-2015 (7)- the challenging situation for Toyota in China's market after worsening of China-Japan relations
09/11/2013
Linked Articles
Toyota Revs Up Ambitious Plans for China
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
Territorial Dispute Continues to Affect Japanese Car Sales in ChinaWall Street Journal 09/11/2013
Noyer and Muscovici on public spending and job creation in France
05/29/2013
Linked Articles
France Says It Will Miss Budget Deficit Targets
Wall Street Journal 09/12/2013
The Emperor Creates No JobsWall Street Journal 05/29/2013
The Swiss central bank's effort to keep Swiss Franc at 1.20 to the dollar and Japan's Abe government's push for the yen at 90 to the dollar
12/25/2012
A determined effort by the Swiss National Bank to preserve export competitiveness as eurozone economies contract in 2013, by printing francs and buying up euros and foreign assets. The effort is designed to counteract declining wages and prices in Switzerland. The newly elected Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe supports aggressive action by Japan's central bank to keep the yen between 85 yen and 90 yen to the U.S. dollar.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/25/2012
Button-Down Central Bank Bets It AllWall Street Journal 01/09/2013
German chancellor Merkel and the EU plan for aid to Spain's banks in Oct. 2012
10/18/2012
Merkel turns down an effort pushed by France and Spain at the Oct. 2012 EU leaders meeting for direct aid to Spanish banks. Instead money has to go from the European Stability Mechanism fund to Spain after a request by Spain for aid. The aid request by Spain would be met under program of conditionality set by the IMF, EU and ECB. Spain is delaying a request for aid as borrowing rates on Spanish bonds declined to about 5% by late October 2012. The Rajoy government in Spain faces regional spending problems and separatis sentiment in addition to high unemployment and a worsening situation with its banks. Merkel faces elections for chancellor in Germany in Sept. 2013 and says more time is needed to setup the eurozone banking supervisory authority- to be set up in the course of 2013 with the legal setup completed by Jan 2013 as a concession to France. This would push banking supervision and financial architecture till after the election.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Europe Seeks a Spain StrategyWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
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