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The advice of General Keane in May 2013, decisions for Syria and Iraq by president Obama ignoring this advice, and the situation in September 2014
05/22/2013
Gen. Keane's advice was to destroy the 50 airstrips used by the Assad regime and its air defense system with cruise missiles and American airpower, the alternative would be to establish a no fly zone such as the one used in Libya. Direct use of American airpower early in the conflict would make it possible to keep American involvement constructive, and effective.
Linked Articles
Jack Keane and Danielle Pletka: How to Stop Assad's Slaughter
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2013
A President Whose Assurances Have Come Back to Haunt HimNew York Times 09/08/2014
Pakistan Railways and Iraqi Railways- a picture of the Middle East and South Asia in 2014
05/18/2013
Declan Walsh and Tim rango provide aunique insight into the lives of common people in two regions of Asia and the Middle East. A century after the European powers invested in railway lines connecting all parts of the Middle East from Turkey to Iraq and Syria, and connecting all parts of South Asia from the Afghan border to Ceylon, two reporters of the NYT visit the railways in both regions showing the prevailing state of affairs. In Iraq decades of wars and conflict have reduced the railways to a crumbling condition. In South Asia mismanagement, cronyism, corruption has led to disinvestment in Pakistan Railways and inflicted similiar damage to the rail network. Through rail one can see into the life of common people in these regions. What one sees shows that five decades after the colonial powers left this region, the educated elites, the political parties, the military, the religious leaders, have all failed the common people of their homeland.
Linked Articles
A Train Ride Through Time: From Iraq’s Checkered Past Into an Uncertain Future
New York Times 10/18/2014
In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nationâs TroublesNew York Times 05/18/2013
The unreal and bizarre in Syria- the coastal town of Tartus, cluster bombs on civilian population and the international community
12/20/2012
Linked Articles
Syrian Resort Town Is Stronghold for Alawites
New York Times 12/22/2012
Syria Uses Cluster Bombs to Attack as Many Civilians as PossibleNew York Times 12/20/2012
Dangers facing Turkey's economy with its dependence on foreign capital inflows and excessive growth in domestic credit for growth
10/04/2012
Foreign capital inflows that partly support the sharp growth in domestic credit could slow or reverse as happened in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The IMF sees a credit to GDP ratio of over 5% as a warning light for developing economies. The IMF forecast is for this rato to be 7.28% for Turkey in 2103.
Linked Articles
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External WorryWall Street Journal 10/04/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
President Obama's second term- (3) failure to lead on the domestic front and how it relates to Syria-Iraq, the careful observations of Panetta and Woodward
09/07/2012
Leon Panetta, U.S. Defense Secretary under Obama, who was also U.S. president Clinton's chief of staff, and Bob Woodward, renown Washington Post journalist, say Obama failed to lead on domestic policy issues and his own agenda during the first term.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/07/2012
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
The Obama administration's lack of active support for the democracy movement in Syria follows its slow response in Libya (3)
08/06/2012
Linked Articles
Syrian rebels feel abandoned, betrayed by U.S. - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/08/2012
McCain, Lieberman and Graham: The risks of inaction in Syria - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/06/2012
The Obama's administration's lack of active support for the democracy movement in Syria follows its slow response in Libya (1)
06/28/2012
Linked Articles
Syrian rebels feel abandoned, betrayed by U.S. - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/08/2012
Turkey Steps Up to the Assad ChallengeWall Street Journal 06/28/2012
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
Turkey and the move to democracy in the Middle East
02/17/2012
Linked Articles
Turkey Steps Up to the Assad Challenge
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2012
Tunisia Islamists Test Ideas Decades in the MakingNew York Times 02/17/2012
The beginning of a negotiated settlement of the Afghan conflict through direct talks with the Taliban in 2012
11/13/2011
America's veteran diplomat, Richard Holbrooke- who is known for the Dayton Accords that settled the conflict in Yugoslavia-initiated the early efforts for a negotated settlement with all the warring factions including the Taliban, the ISI and the Pakistan military. After his death in 2010, these efforts were continued by Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey. The Taliban's willingness to open an office in Qatar and the willingness of all sides to talk directly opens the path to a negotiated settlement.
Linked Articles
Against Odds, Path Opens Up for U.S.-Taliban Talks
New York Times 01/11/2012
Book review: ‘The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/13/2011
Erfurt, Thuringia, Germany- (2) in 2011 with the visit of Pope Benedict XVI to the monastery where Luther studied, and in 2015 with arrival of Syrian refugees
09/24/2011
Linked Articles
Empathy and Angst in a German City Transformed by Refugees
New York Times 09/11/2015
Pope Visits Venerated Lutheran MonasteryNew York Times 09/24/2011
The household credit boom in Turkey and unsustainable credit to GDP ratios in 2010-2013
09/21/2011
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
Obama's second term- (2) the U.S. president Obama's foreign policy failures in Syria-Iraq, Woodward and the U.S. Senate on Libya
05/19/2013
Linked Articles
Woodward: It Isn’t Watergate, but It Is Nixonian
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
Benghazi Attack Called Avoidable in Senate ReportNew York Times 01/15/2014
Obama's second term- (4) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Leon Panetta
02/07/2013
Linked Articles
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New Memoir
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Senate Panel Examines Benghazi AttackNew York Times 02/07/2013
Obama's second term- (1) history of U.S. presidents and foreign policy failures in Syria-Iraq of U.S. president Obama
11/07/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/08/2012
Triumphant Obama Faces New Foe in Second-Term CurseNew York Times 11/07/2012
The perils for Turkey's economy with the surge in short term external debt of the private sector and the street protests in Istanbul
10/04/2012
Linked Articles
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2012
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes TurkeyNew York Times 06/05/2013
America's finest hour bringing a voice to the powerless (1)- ambassador Christopher Stevens in Libya and journalist John Foley in Iraq-Syria
09/15/2012
Linked Articles
In Fear and Violence, Slain U.S. Journalist Found Humanity
Wall Street Journal 08/21/2014
An American Ambassador Who Plunged Into Arab LifeNew York Times 09/15/2012
The Obama admnistration and the conflict in Syria
08/28/2012
A brief history shows the Alawite community constitutes about 13% of the population in Syria and live mainly in the coastal region near the Mediterranean. Under the French Alawites generally supported the colonial regime and the community was used by the French colonial regime to act as a buffer as they ruled a predominantly Sunni population. The Alawites joined the military and Hafez Assad, an Alawite general, seized control in 1971. His son now rules Syria. The Obama administration has largely missed the struggle of the people for freedom from dictatorships in Syria and Egypt under Mubarak.. With Turkey and Egypt supporting the young people in Syria, the U.S. investment is minor in military and other support compared to the cost of letting the war continue with unintended consequences for the entire region.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/13/2012
Assad Draws Shock Troops From Elite Sect in SyriaWall Street Journal 08/28/2012
Friedman, Avraham Burg and Morsi- on the way forward for moving beyond the intractable to the possible in the Middle East
08/04/2012
The democracy movement in the Middle East and the yearning for economc and political participation of the people of the Middle East creates new opportunities to move forward beyond the conflicts of the past to a better future for the people of the Middle East. The role of leaders in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle Eastern countries of Egypt, Turkey and the newly democratic states in this region in setting new goals and plans and rising up to the challenges.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/24/2012
Israel's Fading DemocracyNew York Times 08/04/2012
Turkey, the U.S. and cluster bombs in Syria
06/28/2012
The U.S. stands by and takes a passive approach to artillery attacks on civilian populations and cluster bombs. Was some measure of respect lost in the process. The potential for a role with minimal cost of a no fly zone that could have prevented the air raids on civilians.
Linked Articles
Turkey Steps Up to the Assad Challenge
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2012
Syria Uses Cluster Bombs to Attack as Many Civilians as PossibleNew York Times 12/20/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
02/18/2012
Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek DebtWall Street Journal 02/18/2012
The point back in 2011 when the beginnings of the unraveling of Iraq (and Syria) took place- Former U.S. Defense Secretary, Robert Gates's reference to the role of Iraq's prime minister Nuri al-Maiki and sectarianism
12/27/2011
Linked Articles
How to Save Iraq From Civil War
New York Times 12/27/2011
The U.S. Has No Global StrategyWall Street Journal 02/01/2016
Unsustainable consumer credit booms in Turkey and S. Korea 2010-2013
10/27/2011
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
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