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The U.S. unemployment rate drops from 5.8% in Nov. 2014 to 5.6% in Dec. 2014, according to the Labor Department. But hourly earnings failed to register growth. Average hourly earnings declined in Dec. 2014 from the prior month, and increased by only 1.7% over the prior year, just a little bit above the inflation rate of 1.3%. Overall 2.95 million jobs were created in 2014. Yet 8.7 million Americans looking for a job could not find one. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials see tepid wage growth as a sign of slack in the labor market. The Dec. 16-17 Fed meeting minutes show that "most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad based acceleration in wages." The labor force participation rate is also stuck at a low level- 62.7% in Dec. 2014. The U-unemployment rate that includes involuntary part time workers and workers marginally attached to the labor force was at 11.2% in Dec. 2014. This includes workers too discouraged to look for work and people working parttime because they could not get full time work. It is steadily dropping from 16.6% in 2010 to 14.4% by 2012, 13.1% by 2013, and now 11.2% in 2014, showing steady improvement but still high....

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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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Noam Scheiber of NYT provides this illuminating account of how the changes in employment affected Hispanic Americans since 2004. About 500,000 jobs were created in the U.S. construction industry in 2014. Of this 315,000 jobs went to Hispanics with the highest number in California, Florida, Texas and Illinois, which have large Hispanic population. This has enabled Hispanic employment to reach the pre-recession levels in 2015 before this happens for blacks and whites, according to the Economic Report of the President. The drop in immigrants from Mexico crossing the border as economic conditions deteriorated in the U.S. in 2009-2012, and the stricter enforcement, has resulted in native born Americans benefitting most from the jobs created. Hispanics took the biggest hit following the recession in 2009-2012, with a loss of 700,000 jobs for the 3 million Hispanics employed in construction. During the 2004-2007 construction boom Pew Research shows 1.6 million jobs going to immigrants, of which 800,000 went to native born Hispanics, before the collapse in construction in 2009. This time the recovery is benefitting native born Americans most....

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This analysis by Mackintosh in WSJ points out that the low to negative interest  policy of the ECB has hurt savers, bank profits, and makes the ECB unpopular, yet it has shown tangible signs of success in creating jobs. This is true even though unemployment in the EU is still over 10% in some countries. He says that the unemployment is back to where it was in Nov. 1998 before the euro. There are 7.5 million jobs created in EU since beginning of 2014, the point at which ECB went to ultra low interest rates. This is above the 6.3 million created in the U.S. upto 1st quarter 2016. Big difference now is that companies and households are borrowing as rates fell. Inflation at 0.2% in August 2016 for EU is a weak spot, but considering where the EU was just 2-3 years before in 2013, the change is a largely positive one.

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Vanguard economists using the work of Stanford Unversity economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have developed their own estimates of the cost of overall uncertainty to the U.S. economy. Bloom, Baker and Davis show the level of overall uncertainty in 2011-2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard's estimates are for a drag on the U.S. economy of about $261 billion in deadweight losses from this uncertainty- uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in deficit reduction, uncertainty in business investment. Their estimates show 1 million jobs not created, job growth per month lower by 45,000 in the last 2 years, and gdp growth of about 3% per year in 2011 and 2012 in place of the 2% average recorded, in the absence of these uncertainty shocks experienced by the U.S. economy. McNabb points out that the market gains of the S&P 500 are based on an unstable foundation as long as this overall uncertainty is not lifted and create a serious disconnect....

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Mines sending trainloads of northern white sand are now sitting  idle in Wisconsin , hurting jobs and local revenues to finance budgets of local government. Mines have closed in Wisconsin for this sand that is blasted into silica and used for shale oil production. This has cost jobs in a rural area near the Mississippi river which borders Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois. Even though these areas do not produce any oil and gas. Companies supplying trucks, lubricants and drilling tools are also affected all the way into Youngstown, Ohio, which provides pipe to the oil fracking areas in West Texas. Frackers blast a mix of sand, water and chemicals into fossil fuel bearing rocky areas. Sand called northern white was considered very good for crush strength to prevent plugs and there is a lot of it beneath western Wisconsin topsoil. Once used by glassmakers and cranberry this became a useful source of supplies from 2015 onwards. Demand surged till 2018 when new supplies were found in West Texas which would reduce costs of transportation. Wages in these mining jobs were about $8 higher than other jobs for people with less education. After 2011 financial crisis and the loss of manufacturing jobs to China this provided a new source of higher paying jobs for less educated workers and paid for local government to provide services including in one town a new swimming pool for the recreation complex. This has proved to be temporary with many mines closing in 2019 and in 2020 after the pandemic. ...

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A study by the National Employment Law Project shows most of the job creation in the economic recovery to 2014 in the U.S. is replacing the better paying jobs with lower paying jobs in fast food retail and similiar low paying industries.

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The U.S. "quit rate" reflecting job churn in the economy with workers leaving for better job opportunities increased to 1.8% in Nov. 2013, increasing from 1.2% low in Sept. 2009, according to the Labor Department. 2.4 million workers resigned in Nov. 2013. This includes workers retiring and choosing not to work. The quit rate was about 2.1% betwen 2000 and 2006. About 20% of the churn is from the lower paying hotel and restaurant sector. As the U.S. population ages and workers look for more stable jobs the number of workers leaving jobs is declining since the 1990's.

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics....

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The growth in U.S. GDP was 1.7 % in 2011, yet unemployment dropped by 0.7% in the last 12 months to 8.3% by Feb. 2012. A pickup in hiring is seen in job figures. Christina Romer gives as an explanation to the rise in unemployment in 2009 to 10%, more than expected, and the drop since then, to the overreaction of companies to the financial crisis by laying off workers and freezing hiring- with hiring picking up as conditions return to normal levels. The unemployment rate as defined is also not an accurate measure of the jobs situation, as it reflects only workers who are looking for work, and many workers drop out of the jobs market when they are discouraged especially the long term unemployed. Taking into account people who have dropped out of the labor markets the unemployment rate was 11% in Nov. 2009, according to Luce in the Financial Times- in Ezra Klein, Washington Post 12/12/2011, Wonkbook: Real unemployment rate 11%. Lawrence Katz, Harvard Labor economist also cites this as one of three jobs crises in unemployment today that need to be addressed, the other two being: foreclosures and debt, and the low number of jobs added because of automated manufacturing- in Friedman, NYT, 12/10/11, The Next First 100 Days. Explanations for the low GDP growth as unemployment declines is a likely productivity slowdown. Prof. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, sees a slowdown in productivity. Worker output for every hour worked, how productivity is measured, increased only 0.4% in 2011 and 0.9% in the last 7 quarters, and is trending downward in the longer term. A more likely explanation is that unemployment is still at higher levels but is understated in unemployment figures....

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The strong U.S. job gains of 243,000, according to the Labor Department for January 2012, is a result of unusual factors and is not likely to last. Warmer than usual winter has permitted more construction activity and construction payrolls increased in Dec. and Jan. Another factor is that businesses are making up for labor requirements after the pause during the middle of 2011 from the tsunami and earthquake in Japan, and the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling crisis. The eurozone crisis, and weakness in housing will continue to affect the economy and hiring. The average for jobs created in the last 12 months was 163,000 each month. This rate of growth in jobs will reduce the unemployment rate in 2012, with fluctuations as an improved job market will bring more discouraged workers back looking for work.

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Steve Jobs anticipated a post PC period when he told a technology conference in 2010 that PC's would retain a lot of their value, but he said they will be used only by one out of so many users. Tim Cook told a Goldman Sachs investor conference recently: "From the first day it shipped, we thought- not just me, many of us thought at Apple- that the tablet market would become larger than the PC market, and it was just a matter of time that it took for that to occur." Analysts see this happening sometime between 2013 and 2017.

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Issues of inequality and lack of upward mobility came up in the last presidential election. A Federal Reserve Survey for 2018 shows the financial fragility facing many Americans. One quarter of working individuals say they do not have any retirement savings. About 17% of households say they cannot pay all their monthly bills. About 40% of Americans say they do not have enough cash to cover an unexpected $400 expense, and would have to rely on credit cards balances or loans from family to make the payment. This survey by the Federal Reserve is done each year since 2013, after the financial crisis hit in 2009 it became more important. Still Americans are showing unusual resilience and upbeat spirit. About 75% say they were doing Ok or living comfortably up from 63% in 2013. And two out of three described lovcal economic conditions as "good" or "excellent."  This shows that the financial vulnerability resulting in the loss of jobs in the U.S. both from jobs lost in manufacturing going overseas,  jobs lost through automation or industrial decline in some sectors, and the hit from job loss during the financial crisis and its aftermath years of 2009-2014 is still leaving a lot of families financially vulnerable. Low interest rates and stagnant wages also meant savings growth for ordinary Americans was less than it should be in a healthy economy without booms and busts. This is also the environment in which the U.S. is tackling challenges to its technological leadership in 5G following a decline in sectors such as autos and electronics, with job losses to Japan and South Korea. New trade agreements are focussed on correcting the imbalance, first with Mexico, South Korea, and now with China. Focus is also on fair wages and labour overseas to raise American wages in key sectors. The damage done by a low interest rate to savings of ordinary Americans outside the stock markets is also being seen as a downside in the boom bust cycle, that includes loss of jobs for vulnerable American families. The rise of the tech sectors has diluted the traditional protections of working class Americans with the shifts and realignment of the major parties. ...

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Krugman says there is cause for concern from May's U.S. jobs report of only 38,000 jobs added- low even with Verizon strike jobs added back in- compared to the 200,000 a month average since Jan 2013. One cannot read too much into one months report, yet the political uncertainty in a election year adds to the problem. The low interest rates near zero offering little possibility for rate cuts, make it difficult to come up with a policy response. Under a Clinton administration the infrastructure spending option would face Republican resistance.  It is not clear how a Trump administration would respond. Krugman says the jobs figure reflects a stronger dollar- a result partly of the Fed's plan to raise rates- that is hurting U.S. exports.

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Growth is back in the eurozone. The OECD estimates 2.1% growth in 2017 and 1.9% growth in 2018 for the eurozone countries. Business investment is up significantly- up 5.7% in the first half of 2017. Worldwide business investment in 2016 was at 1.3 trillion euros, up 7.2% from the prior year, according to Eurostat.

New investment for electric vehicles in the auto industry is also up significantly in an industry that provides 10% of all jobs in manufacturing. Yet business investment is only half of what it needs to be- to makeup 5% of GDP- to spur good job creation, says this report in the WSJ. Use of automation is also limiting the number of jobs created. Real wage growth is also lacking.

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A Brookings Institution study of hiring trends and unemployment in the 100 largest metropolitan areas of the U.S. at the end of 2012, shows 78 metropolitan areas adding jobs in the 4th quarter 2012. 14 of these areas had more jobs at the end of 2012 compared to before the 2008-2009 recession. Six of these cities were in Texas. This included Knoxville, which gained from jobs added at a nearby VW plant. Other cities were Oklahoma City, Omaha, Salt Lake City, Charleston. Only three cities in the East and West are on the list- Pittsburgh, Washington and San Jose, and none in the midwest, showing the geographical divide in job gains. And Washington D.C. will lose government jobs after job cuts in the government. Charleston will lose jobs from cuts in military spending.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, tells parliament it will be difficult for Britain to avoid a recession if Europe goes into a recession in 2012-2013. He also told parliament that British debt reduction will take longer than planned because of the economic slowdown. This means the British public will have to go through two more years of austerity than previously planned, now upto 2017. Britain will need to borrow an additional 111 billion British pounds through 2015. Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts economic growth at 0.9% in 2011, and 0.7% in 2012. Debt as a share of GDP will peak at 78% in 2015, instead of the 71% expected earlier. With strong opposition from the unions and a major strike planned by about 2 million workers on Nov. 30, 2011, the Cameron government plans to go ahead with its austerity measures. This includes eliminating 600,000 public sector jobs, and limiting pay increases for public sector workers to 1% for two years after the end of the current pay freeze....

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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Core consumer price index was up 1.3% in December 2013 from the prior year, according to government information. For 2013 the index was up 0.4%, the first increase in 5 years. The Bank of Japan's target is 2% inflation. The ratio of available jobs to applicants increased to 1.03 showing 103 jobs for every 100 job seekers- the first surplus of available jobs since 2007. The jobless rate declined to 3.7% in Dec. 2013, down from 4% in Nov. 2013. A planned sales tax increase to 8% from 5% to tackle the high government debt level goes into effect in April 2014, which is expected to reduce consumer spending.

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Joanna Stern of the WSJ uses the original iPhone that came out in 2007 for one day in June 2017 and sees how it felt to use the introductory version. The original one worked on a 2G cellular network. It took about a minute for the president's Twitter feed to fully load in the old phone's Safari browser, it now takes 5 seconds. A lot has changed with the smartphone revolution in ten years. Lunch spot search results, Stern points out, might take longer than the time to eat lunch in the Maps App with that old phone. No emojis, predictive text, no Siri, and no third party apps, no Apple Music or Spotify, all that came later. The 2 megapixel camera took decent shots but not without good light. What is useful in Joanna Stern's little experiment is that it makes one reflect on how quickly people forget, how so much is now taken for granted as smartphones change the way people live their lives and interact with technology on a daily basis. Not mentioned here is how common smartphones have become with the Android versions made in China offering so much more for the budgets of ordinary people. And how it has changed the lives of billions of people in China, India, other parts of Asia and Latin America, bringing them into contact with the outside world. What is also interesting in this sense is that what took a huge effort over many years and many disappointments- the idea of a touchscreen that works- shows what an idea and the courage to persist in the face of innumerable hurdles can accomplish. See the link to how  Steve Jobs accomplished this. Daisuke Wakabayashi talked with Apple engineer Greg Christie in his article-"Apple Engineer on iPhone's Birth," Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2014. Christie had worked on a digital personal assistant at Apple in 1996, one that had tried the first touch screen Apple made. The device failed in the market. In 2004, eight years later the touch screen is the idea Jobs had Christie work on again. Many frustrations and obstacles later the first smartphone was developed by 2007. It took 10 years and undaunted effort which is the Apple story under Jobs. ...

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The U.S. Labor Department reported a gain of 236,000 jobs in February 2013. The job gains were broad based, an encouraging sign, with gains of 48,000 in construction, 32,000 in health care, 24,000 in retail. Government jobs declined by 10,000. The unemployment rate declined from 7.9% in Jan 2013 to 7.7% in Feb 2013. Part of the reason for the decline in the unemployment rate was 130,000 people leaving the labor force. Of this some were retiring or returned to school. About 80,000 were "discouraged workers" adding to the continued problem of a declining labor force participation rate, a serious concern for the U.S. Federal Reserve and Fed chairman Bernanke.

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Adjusted for the 35,000 workers on strike at Verizon counted as unemployed, the 38,000 jobs figure in the government report is still considered quite low. Especially striking even as unemployment drops for May from 5.0% to 4.7% is that the drop is attributed to people dropping out of the work force. The average monthly gain for the March through May is 116,000 jobs well short of the 240,000 jobs added on average in 2014-2015. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in May and up 2.5% for the year. A widely accepted measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for work or working part time because of a lack of full time job was at 9.7%. The labor force participation rate was at 62.6%.

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U.S. job growth slowed in February to just 20,000 jobs in nonfarm sector following strong gains in December and January. The 3 month average is 186,000 jobs created. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The figures are watched closely as Europe and China are showing slow growth. The European Central Bank said it will not increase interest rates till 2020 and announced fresh stimulus loans. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates in the next few months. Economic output growth was 0.5% in the first quarter after 3% growth in 2018. Other reports show labor scarcity with wage growth outpacing inflation. 

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The main part of the $447 billion jobs plan proposed by President Obama in a speech to Congress on Sept. 8, 2011, is to reduce social security taxes. At a cost of $240 billion in government revenues in 2012, the Obama jobs plan proposes cutting the 6.2% social secuirty tax -on worker income up to $106,800- down to 3.1%. The current tax cut which expires in December 2011 cut the tax down to 4.2%. Analysts estimate this could generate over 500,000 jobs in 2012.