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Did Putin overreact in Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014? Russia and the dangers to the Russian economy of not maintaining good relations with the West
08/13/2008
Russia tones down its overreaction as 66% of Russians polled in June say Russian forces should not enter Ukrainian terrritory. Putin and Russians in the administration policy making may have underestimated the reaction in the U.S. as reflected in this WSH editorial saying Americans should remember the words of Gen. Lucius Clay during the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent airlift. This could be why analysts in Russia now maintain that good relations with the West must be maintained, and entry of Russian forces into Ukraine would have disastrous consequences for Russia in terms of western sentiment and foreign investor sentiment. In such a situation Germany would be likely to support the stronger U.S. position seeing this in terms of the language used in theBerlin Airlift of 1948. For Germany and Russia this would be reversing the hard won gains of building relations from the time of Brandtand Kohl till today, fifty years of effort to build better relations and economic relationships- just too much for sober heads in Moscow Paris, and Berlin to accept, and closing another chapter in Russia's interactions with the West.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2008
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters CourseNew York Times 07/11/2014
How good were the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of 2012?
07/16/2008
Reilly questions the leveraging aspect of the Fed's 2002 stress test results as they leave U.S. banks leveraging at between 20-30 times capital, the situation that prevailed before the crisis. Experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago pointed out how the process of deleveraging works in reverse before the collapse of Lehman in 2008- for every $1 of bank losses the deleveraging cycle reduces bank lending by $20- $30.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
US energy policy in cars showed the Detroit automakers falling way behind the Europeans and the Japanese in this chart.
07/06/2008
Detroit automakers sticking with the status quo let a wide gap build up in fuel efficiency and smaller cars with the Europeans and the Japanese. Upto the point that it became difficult for them to make a profitable small car because they had less expertise in that area.
Linked Articles
American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot
New York Times 07/06/2008
GM plans $500M for 45-mpg small carDetroit News 08/22/2008
Europeans protest of fuel taxes.
05/28/2008
Europeans protes fuel taxes but public opinion especially in Germany favorsreducing fuel consumption. It requires agreement by 27 EU member states to reduce fuel taxes so this is unlikely to happen.
Linked Articles
Europeans Protest Fuel Taxes But Accept High Prices
Wall Street Journal 05/28/2008
Irate Europeans Protest the Soaring Price of GasolineNew York Times 05/30/2008
Imbalances in the global economy that will take time to correct- the situation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets in 2012-2013
05/05/2008
The perception that "this time is different" is a typical behavioural reaction in history to to financial crises studied by Rogoff and Reinhart. Economic weakness is part of the mechanism for correcting global imbalances which happens over a number of years.
Linked Articles
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2008
Boom, Bust. Repeat.Wall Street Journal 10/09/2009
Lower incomes in manufacturing and and a general lowering of expectations in U.S. midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin (1)
04/20/2008
Improving unemployment figures in Ohio in 2012 with 7.2% unemployment has come with lower incomes in manufacturing and a lowering of expectations about the future.
Linked Articles
Ohio economy improving, but residents can’t feel it - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/08/2012
The Wage That Meant Middle ClassNew York Times 04/20/2008
Popular Eastern European automobile brands that stand for quality in Europe at low price points- Renault's Dacia in Romania
02/11/2008
The Dacia and Logan brands manufactured in Romania are expected to cross the 1 million sales mark in 2012. The Logan and Dacia have established a presence in Europe as models known for reliability. Sales of these lower cost cars are popular with buyers in France who see this as a choice replacing buying a used car.
Linked Articles
Frugal Dacia Stars in Renault's Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2008
Renault Takes Low-Cost LeadWall Street Journal 04/16/2012
The crisis at Motorola in 2008 and at Nokia in 2012
02/01/2008
Smartphone competition from Chinese and Korean brands, Huawei and Samsung, and new technologies with the Android smartphones and the Apple iPhone have upended the market for mobile phones. Nokia an established competitor finds itself in a dangerous situation with a precipitious loss of market share at the low end and the high end, and eroding margins.
Linked Articles
Motorola to Spin Off Handset Unit, As Icahn Waits
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2008
Nokia Posts $1.2 Billion Loss as Sales Drop 29%New York Times 04/19/2012
The increase in temporary workers in the U.S. and Japan and the consequences in higher inequality and poverty.
01/07/2008
About one third of workers in Japan, and one fourth in the U.S., are temporary workers. The consequences for Japan include the effects of lower consumer spending in the economy reducing the growth rate.
Linked Articles
The Rise of the Permanent Temp Economy
New York Times 01/26/2013
Growing Reliance on Temps Holds Back Japan's ReboundWall Street Journal 01/07/2008
Reform at Pemex and opening up Mexico's oil industry to foreign investment held up for a decade and the cost to the Mexican economy
12/19/2007
Reforms at Pemex and opening up the oil industry to foreign investment were held up in the Calderon administration after repeated efforts by the PAN party government to get the PRI and PRD's support. The final changes to the bill to make it more attractive for foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex were pushed by PAN in alliance with the PRI Nieto administration in 2013. The cost to Mexico is a lost decade in oil exploration in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and a steep decline in oil revenues as Mexico turned into a net energy importer in March 2013, according to the WSJ.
Linked Articles
Economist 12/19/2007
How Shale Helped Frack Mexico's Energy ImpasseWall Street Journal 12/12/2013
Blending cultures and workers from France and Germany for Airbus operations
10/15/2007
Bringing together engineers and workers from the Airbus operations in Toulouse and Hamburg to build complex aircraft with new designs is an ongoing challenge at EADS Airbus. Other related challenges include how to divide labor and management responsibilities considering the interests of unions and governments to achieve an efficient enterprise.
Linked Articles
Airbus, Amid Turmoil, Revives Troubled Plane
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2007
Airbus Wants A380 Cost CutsWall Street Journal 07/13/2012
Great Moderation and Monetary policy
09/20/2007
Bernanke's views about the half point interest rate cut in 2002 in his first months as Fed governor showed his concerns for overheating of residential construction but also that this was overweiged by his concerns for deflation and economic gloom current at the time.
Linked Articles
Economist 09/20/2007
Fed in 2002 Feared Deflation, Newly Released Transcripts ShowWall Street Journal 04/11/2008
Doug Parker of US Airways and the proposed merger with American Airlines (AMR) in 2012
11/20/2006
Linked Articles
Lessons Learned? How US Airways Would Navigate Merger - WSJ.com
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2006
Steven Pearlstein: Two can play the airline bankruptcy game - The Washington PostWashington Post 04/29/2012
The presidential candidates Obama and McCain, agents of change or agents of lobbyists?
07/23/2008
Fannie and Freddie takeover and the reporting of high level ties with lobbyists of both candidates shows the agents of change argument like the free markets argument "as only a thin veneer" as one expert puts it. In this case though the lobbyists who are in other roles as close advisors to the two candidates and the candidates themselves may not realize that politics as usual here had huge implications. Without the hard work of Secretary Paulson and Bernanke the collapse of Fannie and Freddie could have endangered the American economy, not an overstatement, and could also have serious ripple effects all over the world economy.
Linked Articles
For ’08 Rivals, a Skein of Ties to Loan Giants
New York Times 09/10/2008
The Fannie Mae GangWall Street Journal 07/23/2008
Leveraging of banks U.S. banks in 2012 under the U.S. Federal Reserve stress tests of March 2012 and the leveraging at the time of Lehman's collapse in 2008
07/16/2008
The high rate of leveraging of banks today compared to 2008, suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have prematurely declared the banks safe, say experts.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
Differing timelines for Bill Ford and Mullaly at Ford and Wagoner at GM in their shift to smaller cars.
06/04/2008
GM was late in the shift to smaller cars than Ford even as the shift was taking place. Both companies though remained mired in a decades long stagnation in fuel efficency even as companies like Honda moved forward, and as the gap with the Europeans and the Japanese in the technology and skills of making small cars widened.
Linked Articles
G.M. Closing 4 Plants in Shift From Trucks Toward Cars
New York Times 06/04/2008
Bill Ford on Tipping Points and Thinking SmallBusinessWeek 07/31/2008
How all carmakers and Detroit automakers in particular missed what was happening in the economy and the market with dire results.
05/20/2008
Even as late as May 22, 2008 Ford pared its outlook to 14-15 million cars as reported by Jeff Bennett in the WSJ. That puts the situation in October 2008, with a 30-40% drop in sales year over year only 5 months away.
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Ford Motor Pares OutlookWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
The steep decline in Cherry's car sales in China and the precarious condition of the Chinese consumer- 2008
04/24/2008
The precarious condition of the Chinese consumer and first time buyer of cars, with no safety net in the economy for health care or unemployment. The severe downturn for Cherry and why GM cannot look to China for any kind of relief.
Linked Articles
With First Car, a New Life in China
New York Times 04/24/2008
China's Car Makers Seek Different Help: Lower Sales TaxesWall Street Journal 11/20/2008
Greenspan and his philosophy that let him take such an ambitious experiment in unrestrained markets.
04/08/2008
Grennspan took huge risks in his ambitious experiment with the American economy of a philosophy that simply said allow markets to operate unrestrained and trust in humans benevolent intentions and enlightened self interest. Goodman and Ip document the details. Did he believe that there was something miraculous that would prevent things from imploding, something inherently sacred about an idea of markets, when plain common sense like Buffets said that the arithmetic did not add up and in the end thats all that counts common sense.
Linked Articles
Taking Hard New Look at a Greenspan Legacy
New York Times 10/09/2008
His Legacy Tarnished, Greenspan Goes on DefensiveWall Street Journal 04/08/2008
Renault's bold strategy with the lowcost Logan and Dacia models targeted at European markets
02/11/2008
The success of the Logan and Dacia in France and other European markets has helped Renault. Profit margins on the two low cost vehcles is about 6%, higher than Renault's 2-3% margins on other cars. This turns the accepted logic in the auto industry on its head about higher margins with larger more expensive cars.
Linked Articles
Frugal Dacia Stars in Renault's Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2008
Renault Takes Low-Cost LeadWall Street Journal 04/16/2012
Tata Motors and meeting crash and emissions standards for the Nano automobile
01/08/2008
The new small car from Tata will meet current and future European emissions standards Mr. Tata said in an interview. There were doubts in the NYTimes of Jan 8, 2008 about the emissions, and it was thought that this car would just meet the lower Indian emissions standards. If this is true then this is part of the foresight of the vision of Ratan Tata. In fact Tata said that it was easier to meet the emissions standards than to meet the crash and safety standards because of the lightness of the car.
Linked Articles
Tata's High-Stakes Bet on Low-Cost Car
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2008
Four Wheels for the Masses: The $2,500 CarNew York Times 01/08/2008
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01/05/2008
European examples of ethnic conflict over centuries, here the Scottish-English conflict -the struggles of William Wallace Robert Bruce and others. Ethnic and religious conflict caused the creation of Pakistan.
Linked Articles
New York Times 01/06/2008
Of Braveheart and BushWall Street Journal 01/05/2008
The 2012 drought in the U.S., corn prices and problems with the ethanol mandate
11/28/2007
Linked Articles
Ethanol Craze Cools As Doubts Multiply
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2007
Prices Surge as Drought Stunts Corn CropWall Street Journal 08/12/2012
Eastern European automobile brands that now stand for quality in Europe at lower price points- VW's Skoda in the Czech Republic
10/01/2007
Linked Articles
VW Revs Up Auto Race to Russia
Wall Street Journal 11/29/2007
Skoda Means Quality. ReallyBusinessWeek 10/01/2007
Fuel efficiency standards in the USA and Europe
09/08/2007
The widening gap between European and Japanese fuel efficiency standards and the same standards in the USA.
Linked Articles
American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot
New York Times 07/06/2008
Latest Concept for Car Makers: Being All Things to All CustomersWall Street Journal 09/08/2007
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