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The failure of the Obama administration's HARP, Home Affordable Refinance Program. It was designed to allow certain homeowners who owe between 80% and 105% of their home's current value to take advantage of lower rates. It was limited to loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. The HARP program was touted by Obama administration as helping potentially 4-5 million borrowers to refinance. So far only 12,710 refinancings have been completed according to the Treasury department. According to Freddie Mac by refinancing borrowers on average reduce the mortgage rates by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, saving around $2500 on a $200,000 loan. Now a new development further aggravates the housing market recovery. On June 10, 2009 rates on 30 year fixed mortgages climbed to 5.79%, up from 5% two weeks ago according to HSH Associates. That increase cuts in half the number of borrowers with incentives to refinance, according to FTN Financial. Now refinance activity is way down.

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A Sept 2012 Census Bureau report shows the median income of a typical U.S. family declined or was flat in almost all states in 2011. Median household income declined in Nevada by 6%, in California by 3.8%. In Arizona and Florida incomes declined by 2.9%. For the U.S. median income declined by 1.3% to $50,502 in 2011. Poverty continues to increase, with California showing 335,760 people falling into annual income levels below $23,021 for a family of four in 2011, giving the state a 16.6% poverty rate.

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The coronavirus pandemic and the disaster in nursing homes, the chaotic conditions in the first wave, the lack of staff and poor attention to residents during the pandemic, has exposed the major weakness of nursing home care in western countries. Much of this sector is in the hands of private operators seeking a profit.  The staff is paid low wages and lacks the experience and empathy needed for care of older people. During a virus all these factors turn deadly. With some staff sick the other staff is overburdened. If the sick turn up for work they are likely to risk the safety of other staff and the residents. With the incubation period lack of testing there is no way to know. When deaths occur and the nursing homes are sealed from the outside world the deaths happen with no goodbyes as happened in U.S., Britain and Sweden. This has exposed the scandalous and shocking way in which the elderly are treated in today's environment where ridiculous amounts of money are being spent on other things and the the most basic "one's parents" are neglected and allowed to die in horrific manner in a pandemic. The new trend for home care for the elderly is a welcome trend and long overdue as one of the worst aspects of the system in the west is the treatment of elderly parents in nursing homes run for profit. The new technology tools available for monitoring a elderly person at home, and the help of stores such as Best Buy which are serving elderly at home, is making this more and more a choice for the elderly. Even older patients and ones needing significant care can recover and spend time at home in a better environment, a less costly one, as hospital managers and families have learned in 2020. Some hospitals in the U.S. say they never want to go back. That the drive to get every patient home who can be home is the right one for patients and families and for the government paying for the care so that dollars are well spent in quality of care. Home health care companies are working on providing new services for sicker patients recovering at home. Technology helps do better monitoring. Medicare now pays for digital doctor visits and intense hospital type care at home after coronavirus showed this as vitally needed.  Both the Biden and Trump administrations are firmly focused on this issue. Seema Verma as head of Medicare is clear about the need for a national conversation on how we take care of the elderly, of our parents. And Mr. Biden wants to spend $450 billon to make certain that people who need long term care can get the support they need in the home and the community. This report looks at the home health care companies and how they are improving their services. This and telemedicine are two of the major constructive changes coming out of the pandemic, clearing out some of the worst aspects of the old system of living the older years in the western world.  Nothing speaks more about humanity and a human world than the story here of Savanna Hollar, 90 years old and almost blind. She broke her shoulder in August, Her sons decided not to send her to a the rehab facility she went to after a broken hip 3 years earlier. The sons brought her home to recover in the farmhouse near Yadkinville, N.C., where she has lived since 1951. One of her sons himself 63 years says that at a nursing home she would be lonely, scared and afraid to move. The sons hired two people to help her during the day and a rotating system was used for having people help her. At home Mrs. Hollar could enjoy her gray cat, Buddy, her favorite recliner and tomato sandwiches made with produce from her garden. Really, if we can't do this much what good is the U.S.A.? or Britain? or Sweden? or India? ...

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Uchitelle of NYT says it may be years, 3-7 years, before all the idle capacity that is created gets used again. Only 68% of the country's manufacturing capacity us being utilized at this time and the numbers will keep dropping.

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The effects on Greece of a pullback in global financial markets in October 2014. Assurances that the Greek financial system and banking will be supported by the government and the EU. The pullback complicates the Samaras government's plan to exit the bailout program with the IMF early. There is also the prospect of new elections in early 2014 leading to a left of centre Syriza party government. Syriza's Tsipras says he would renegotiate the terms of the debt agreement to reduce debt owed to Germany and other countries in the EU.

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A report published by Capital Economics of Toronto, based on Labor Department data, shows the U.S. is not adding the kinds of jobs with the pay, benefits and hours of the 8.75 million jobs that disappeared during the recession. Labor Department data support this analysis. The number of food preparation and serving workers are expected to grow by 394,000 by 2018, but the pay is only $16,430 for these jobs. The good well paying jobs are continuing to be lost. Large employers such as Lowe's home improvement chain is eliminating 1700 managers, and adding 10,000 weekend sales positions and new assistant store manager positions. This use of parttime workers also reduces income levels of workers. The impact of this is to limit the consumer spending. As local government is shrinking from budget cuts, better paying jobs are being lost in state and local government, and workers are earning less in the new jobs that do similiar work.

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November 2012 light vehicle sales of cars and light trucks shows sales up significantly for Honda at 39%, Toyota 17%, and sales at Ford up 3%, GM 6%. GM decides to reduce production and not reduce prices with incentives that match competitors. VW sales increased 29%, Audi 24%, Daimler 13%, and BMW up 45%. Experts expect the better conditions in the U.S. auto market to continue especially as many cars that reach a life of 11 years need to be replaced. Light vehicle sales reach 1.14 million in Nov. 2012, up 15% over the prior year, and seasonally adjusted auto sales of 15.5 million are the highest since Jan 2008, according to Autodata Corp.

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Mexico's GDP increases at 3.9% compared to 2.7% for Brazil in 2011. Foreign investment is increasing in Mexico especially in the automobile industry and in industries where Mexico is favored over China as a production location. The G-20 meets in Los Cabos, Mexico in June 2012.

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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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Susan Carey interviews the new CEO of United Continental Holdings Inc, Jeff Smisek. Mr Smisek is a lawyer for the law firm Vinson & Elkins LLP. He brings to this job, which involves negotiating labor contracts and bringing together reservation systems of the two merged airlines, prior experience in the 1995 turnaround of Continental. Smisek was part of the management team that helped turn the airline around. The important things for Smisek is getting the people in the merged airline embrace a positive culture, and this he says begins with honest communications. He is heavily focussed on this part, as he says this is a service business, and employees won't give the best service unless they really want to. Next he is focussed on execution of the integration aspects. And third, what he calls the day to day tackling and blocking of operating the airline. His management style is to get a lot done by walking around and using an informal style, by being direct. He would like to see the airline make money in the tough times and do even better in good times, and invest in people, product and technology....

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Oil prices are up and staying there longer in December 2011. The 12 month rolling average for oil prices for Brent crude oil is at $109, compared to $106 a barrel in September 2008, according to consultants JBC Energy. The situation is worse for eurozone countries because of the declining value of the euro estimated at between $1.16-$1.30 in 2012 depending on how the eurozone crisis is handled. The 12 month rolling average was 70 euros when Brent crude prices were at their high in 2008, compared to 78 euros today. France and Italy are seeing their current account surplus disappear with reduced exports and higher import bill for oil.

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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Annamaria Andriotis does enormous service to millions of borrowers for student loans by putting down in simple payments terms everybody can understand the approach to take for a university education. She points out the pitfalls in taking federal loans and following the advice of the student loan office. The federal student loans have an origination fee of about 4.2%, so even if you pay off the loan early you are stuck with the origination cost, which private lenders such as major banks do not normally charge. On a $100,000 loan this could be $4200 right off the beginning, reducing the loan to $95,800. Private lenders offer fixed rates also at attractive terms of about 4%-4.25%, with added reduction of 0.25 to 0.5% for loans with automatic payment. The lenders include Wells Fargo, Suns Trust. It is important to have good credit ratings. Scores of over 700 or 720 in credit ratings provide the most attractive rates, yet a good credit rating is also acceptable. FICO scores range from 350 to 850 for credit ratings. Added reduction of quarter to half percentage point for automatic payment. A loan for $100,000 taken with Federal PLUS loan and government guarantees could run 7.21% for fixed rate. Andriotis points out that compared to the $4586 payment on a $100,000 student fixed rate private loan at 4.25% for 10 years, a federal guaranteed PLUS loan at fixed rate of 7.21% for 10 years would cost $3541 more over the life of the loan. Mortgage loans for 30 year fixed rate jumbo loan is about 4.14%. In September 2014, the rates for jumbo mortgage loans offered by private banks are now converging at the 4.18% for conventional mortgage loans. For auto loans zero percent financing from auto company lenders such as Toyota Financial are a better option. Rates of 2% on auto loans may be available from private banks and credit unions. SunTrust Banks has an online lending division LightStream that is offering personal loans to borrowers having good credit ratings scores, with interest rates of as low as 1.99%. The borrowers with excellent scores can get the unsecured option at the best rate of 1.99%. Credit unions are offering lower auto loan rates of 2.64% and 2.74% compared to banks charging average of 4.79% and 4.9%, according to data from SNL Financial. Millions of borrowers with good credit ratings, especially for student loans, need to start early in checking out the rates and shopping for the best rate. A good credit rating of parents can enable a student to make a huge difference in payments for undergraduate or postgraduate education, and avoid the unnecessary burden of high interest rate loans in a low interest rate environment....

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The U.S. jobs added for Dec. 2011, are 325,000, according to ADP figures, but the reliability of these figures has been questioned because of the different methods used in calculating the number. For Nov. 2011, the ADP number for private sector jobs added was 206,000. The same number from the Labor Department was 140,000. For June 2011 there was wide divergence- the ADP showed private sector jobs added as 157,000, the same number from the Labor Department was 57,000 jobs. For December 2010, ADP reported private sector jobs increased by 297,000, and official numbers showed 113,000. For December there are seasonal issues as well that affect the figures. Other factors affecting the jobs picture is the loss of jobs inthe government sector, and the gains in jobs predominantly coming from poorly paid retail and restaurant industries and fewer job gains in the better paid construction and manufacturing industries.

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U.S home prices declined by 3.9% for the third quarter compared with the prior year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas. Prices are expected to be affected by an increase in foreclosed properties put by the banks for sale in coming months. Affordability has increased as prices are down by 31% from the 2006 peak and mortgage rates are at 4%. Yet as one appraiser puts it the problem remains one of tight credit and strict mortgage lending standards, and further home price declines could depress the market.

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China and India pass Mexico as immigration to the U.S. from Mexico declines rapidly, as a result of an improving Mexican economy, the 2008-2011 recession in the U.S. with sharp drop in jobs for construction, lower birthrates, and stricter U.S. law enforcement at the U.S. border with Mexico. Researchers using the American Community Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau found immigration from China increased to 147,000 from China, 129,000 from India, as it declined to 125,000 from Mexico, for 2013. This Survey counts a person as an immigrant for a particular year who says he was living abroad previously. Mexico shows a decline from 400,000 in 2000, with steady decline for every year after 2005. In 2000 India and China were at about 75,000, and did not cross the 100,000 mark till 2007. Other Asian countries are also at the top including S. Korea, Philippines and Japan. William Frey documents this surge in diversity in the U.S., -which is supplemented by now common intermarraige between young people from different countries of origin- in his book "Diversity Explosion."...

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At Stuyvesant, the most selective of New York public schools the student body is 74% Asian, 19% WHite, 3% Latino, and 1% African American. Mayor Blasio of New York is using the Discovery Program to limit the entry to the program which accounts for about 5% of the overall admissions to kids from schools that have a poverty rate of 60% or higher instead of to economically disadvantaged children in the city.  Two views are presented here. One that of the New York schools chancellor, Richard Carranza who says "I just don't buy the narrative that any one ethnic group owns admissions to these schools." Mayor Blasio of New York says that only 10% of Black and Latino students get offers from the specialized high schools even though they account for nearly 70% of the city's high school population. The other view is that the state is failing in its secondary schools system because New York state tests show only 47% of the city's third through eighth graders proficient in English and 43% in Math, with the number for Black and Latino students dropping to 34% for English and 25% for Math. This means about half or two thirds of New York state's school children cannot read proficiently and the numbers decline with socioeconomic conditions. Even Mayor Blasio is working at the fringes as the problem is deeper and needs to be fixed at another level than by tweaking which segment of the economically disadvantage children should have access to the best schools such as Stuyvesant.   ...