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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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South Korea will share an increased part of the cost of stationing US troops and bases in the country. This was a key demand of the Trump administration as it sought to reach agreement on fair shared cost of the defense costs. South Korea paid $913 million a year and the new amount is likely to be at least over 15% higher.

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China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

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The US is requesting talks with China at the World Trade Organization with the objective of ending hundreds of millions of dollars of subsidies China gives to increase wind energy production. The wind power grants are being targeted because Chinese producers are required to use domestic parts to be eligible for the grant, which range from $6.7 million to $22.5 million. In the last 5 years foreign companies' share of the Chinese market has dropped from 79% to 13%, according to Goldman Sachs, with China's efforts to promote Chinese manufacturers. The renewable energy market in China is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020. And wind energy is the fastest growing sector. The effort comes after the US Steelworkers union alleged that China was using import substitution subsidies in violation of WTO rules, in a 5800 page petition. Steelworkers union president, Leo Gerard, says this doesn't address most of the billions of dollars of clean-tech subsidies and other support provided by the Chinese government. Gerard says the goal is not litigation but to put an end to these practices that are trade distorting, and act as a barrier to US exports to China....

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Rumsfeld talks in this interview about the conflict between the US State and Defense Departments about a post war Iraq that delayed decisions and gave time for the Iraqi insurgency to develop. Colin Powell at the State Department, and Condoleeza Rice as National Security Advisor, let Ian Bremmer continue for too long as the sole authority in Iraq operating from one of Hussein's palaces, giving the feeling of a foreign occupation force and fueling insurgency. Rumsfeld favored letting one of the Iraqi exiles provide interim leadership, wheras Powell felt the exiles did not have the legitimacy in Iraq that was needed. The result was indecision that left Bremmer in charge for too long. Asked why Rumsfeld did not fire Bremmer, he says Bremmer acted as the Presidential envoy. His criticism of Rice and Powell centers on their not letting the President decide by providing the options and the pros and the cons. He says the surge was more psychological in its impact and less significant than its made out to be, because the Anbar Awakening had already led Sunnis to move away from Al Quaeda. The insurgency came in stages, first with the Baathists and thugs from the old regime, then the foreign elements and Al Quaeda through Damascus, and then the Mohtada Sadr Shiites, it was not a single enemy or a single event. The memoir is not a defense of the Bush Presidency or decisions, but takes the kind of look at events that is reminiscent of Dean Acheson for the events of the Cold War under president Harry Truman....

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By March 2014 the U.S. stock market has seen 5 years of gains since the low reached in 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increased 151% since March 9, 2009, when it hit a low with the global financial crisis. The Dow was at 16452 on March 7, 2014, the S&P 500 at 1878. This makes it the fifth longest running-comparable to the one after 1987- and the fifth in gains since 1900, according to Ned Davis Research. S&P 500 trades at 16 times component companies earnings for the past year, according to the FactSet, similiar to the level at which stocks peaked in 2007. Using a measure developed by Robert Shiller with a 10 year average of earnings gives a P/E ratio of 25 times earnings, compared to historical average of 16.5, and 27.5 in 2007. Shiller's measure reached its current level in 2003 before the bull market ended in 2007. The biggest support for the stock market has been Federal Reserve support by buying $3 trillion in bonds in the open market since 2008. This support is gradually being reduced as the economy recovers....

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Take a a look at the moving BBC chart  "How the coronavirus spread" to see the dizzying speed at which the virus spread in America. In the beginning of March there are only about 200 confirmed infection cases in the U.S., by April 7 the number skyrocketed to 379,000. The public health experts were right including Dr. Fauci and Dr Birx. Even these experts may have been astounded at the speed with which it has spread, and going through a very difficult time convincing others including the skeptical public about the great danger to America. China's quarantine of the entire country of about 1 billion people, Italy's experience and data freely available from Italian doctors to American doctors, were warnings of what lay ahead for America. 

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Malkiel says both sides in the investor debate are right. Those saying the CAPE ratio in the U.S. at 25, well above long run average of 15, are right to point this out. So are the others in the debate who point to the lack of alternatives for investors when the 10 year Treasury bond is at 2.4% and short term rates essentially at zero. Stock prices reflect the discounted present value of future cash flows from dividends and capital gains. This discount rate in 2014 has to take into acount the rate on low risk securities such as 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds and and a premium for riskiness of the stock market. Add three or four percentage points to this and one gets a low discount rate for future earnings that helps support reasoning for higher stock prices, says Malkiel. On the issue of low interest rates Malkiel's view is that they will be around for a long period because the unutilized productive labor capacity and low growth are likely to persist for a long period. Here he supports Fed chairwoman Yellen's view based on the U6 labor utilization. He also sees the long run equity returns from today's prices to be much lower than the 10% long run average. By accomodating both sides Malkiel supports a broadly diversified portfolio with adequate room for emerging markets and international stocks....

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Asked about it yesterday January 16 DJT tells the press outside the White House after a meeting announcing his Great Healthcare Plan, it is a good thing that Canada has signed a trade deal with China. It reflects the new view not clearly understood or told in the press what US trade policy is about. US trade policy in 2026 is about bringing investment and jobs back to the US to rebuild communities and towns across 51 states- once destroyed by the foolish trade policies of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama 3 destructive policy decades. Supplementing this with the investment favorable policy of instant depreciation for investments in plant and equipment in the Big Beautiful Bill of 2025. Using tariffs to level the playing field and ensure fairness in business practices by industries and nations towards America after over 3 decades all else has failed. All the time protecting Rural America, and communities and towns across the US devastated by outshoring. Using Tariffs to make certain that drug and migrant trafficking, and hostile unelected governments in the western Hemisphere cannot take place with direct and  indirect intervention in the western hemisphere by foreign powers. To do this with the Monroe Doctrine Corollary set by Teddy Rooosevelt in his Annual Message to Congress of 1905- "A great free people owes it to itself and to all mankind not to sink into helplessness before the powers of evil." Under such a policy Canada can pursue trade deals with China as the US has done. The clear rationale for the US policy is nowhere evident in the press today, how trade and domestic policy and foreign policy converge to protect all Americans, even though this was something that was pursued under the Biden administration with mistakes made in handing the Border management to Mayorkas and Harris incompetence. In the use of Tariffs doing this in such a way that US economic interest, investments, capital and stock markets are protected by carving out areas of exemptions in the policy. This has given the US an highly advantageous use of Tariff policy in ways not reflected in the press version of Tariffs. As TR pointed out, as Lincoln pointed out over a century ago, the interests of both Labor and of Capital are both legitimate and vital for the Nation. It is time to see this as one whole and not separate to rebuild America.   ...

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Worsenign outbreaks of coronavirus in the midwest U.S. comes with resumption of sports games on Oct. 23. Campuses at Michigan State, Minnesota and Nebraska see infection rates in the general population of over 5%. Rates are also high at the University of Michigan  in Ann Arbor. Community viral spread factor is missing in the effort to restart sports games, and has drawn criticism from local governments.

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Deutsche Post is reinventing itself for the digital world. Germany's postal agency sold off all but 24 of the 29,000 post office buildings. It is located within "partners" buildings, in banks, convenience stores, and in rural areas a shopkeeper or homeowner acts as postmaster. Because of the surge in online shopping Deutsche Post has expanded its package delivery. It acquired delivery provider DHL in 2002. Deutsche Post provides a model for the U.S. Postal Service as it faces a similiar transformation.

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The new approach to tackle the coronavirus is to quarantine areas where it starts. The approach is being adopted in China, Italy, the U.S., Japan and other countries. Another part of this is closing of schools as in Japan and Hong Kong. Experts support this approach even though it was used in the 14th century.

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Zaraska says a vegetarian diet or one that includes vegetarian diet in meals is a good idea to reduce the risk of heart disease, obesity, diabetes and other medical problems. Be sure to add zinc, iron and calcium, Vitamin B12 to the diet if you are older she points out, to compensate for the change. About 2.5 million Americans over the age of 55 are vegetarian according to a 2012 Harris poll done for the Vegetarian Resource Group. There is a common perception of vegetarianism as purely vegetable type foods. However vegetarianism in India is practiced with the inclusion of all dairy products- milk, yogurt, and buttermilk. Not only are they included, they play a significant role in the diet. Also included and playing a large role in the diet are lentils and beans which provide a significant source of protein. When the idea of vegetarianism is broadened to a more normal vegetarianism as practiced in countries like India and includes dairy, lentils and beans, the diet is able to provide most of the nutrients needed. By including this kind of vegetarian food as an integral part of the diet and reducing meat is another way the health needs of Americans facing a high rate of obesity and other medical problems can be met. If insurance companies were to give incentives for increased consumption of these vegetarian foods and lowered consumption of meat, and the public was made aware of its benefits through advertising, the cost of health care in the U.S. could be brought down....

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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The US economy grew at 2% in the third quarter 2010, compared to 1.7% in second quarter 2010. Unemployment remains at 9.6%, and the growth did not generate hiring. Much of the growth came from business building inventories, exports grew at 5%, imports rose 17%. Residential construction plunged, state and local government spending contracted as it did for 6 of the last 8 quarters. This increases concerns about the economy.

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Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on Dec. 15, 2014, as Brent crude prices fall below $60 and pressure on the ruble increases. Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2015 puts pressure on emerging market currencies, adding to pressure on the ruble. All emerging market currencies, the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira, also come under pressure as money flows out of emerging markets in a repeat of the situation in January 2014.

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David Stockman was Budget Director under President Reagan and known for his prodigous grasp of statistics in the national budget. Here he takes on what he describes as disproportionately large and destructive banking system for the U.S. economy, which he says the nation desperately needs less of. He supports the small tax of 0.15% of the debts other than deposits of financial conglomerates. His words are some of the strongest yet to come from one of the most prominent people on Reagan's economic team about how the nation's banking system has beome unproductive in supporting economic activity which is its reason for existence. The destructive effects on social cohesion and the middle class is emphasized. He says for years the Fed has run an insanely loose monetary policy that has encouraged this behaviour and socially detrimental profit seeking by the banks and other companies. He sees the big banks as dangerous institutions in today's economy engaged in a bull market culture which believes in entitlement and profitseeking behaviours regardless of its detrimental nature for the national economy. The recent profits of the banks in 2009 and the resulting bonuses are a result of the Fed's easy money policy and bank's gambling at the Fed's monetary casino as he puts it, with money obtained at little cost from Fed-controlled money markets. This article helps to eliminate the distorted perspective in today's climate that paints criticism of splitting up the banks, or otherwise restricting banks in engaging in proprietary trading and risky behaviours, as government interference. As Stockman puts it these banks are already in some sense wards of the state and not private enterprises and this issue is not relevant. The question now is how to set things right and this involves possible solutions such splitting up banks that are too big to fail, restricting risky behaviours and preventing proprietary trading, and other actions as unusual steps for unusual times to get things working back to normal. In other times Stockman would not have said this in an op-ed piece if this were not so....

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Karl Rove, former Deputy Chief of Staff to president George W. Bush, expresses the concern on the Republican side on U.S. president Obama's thinking about Islamic terrorism expressed in recent speeches and interviews. Obama told CNN interviewer Zakaria that it was wrong to suggest that terrorist networks were "an existential threat to the U.S. or the world order." Earlier references to the Islamic State as a "javvee team" in 2014 show the U.S. president unable to take the situation seriously. Rove questions the president's claim that "we ended two wars in a responsible way." The situation in Iraq especially has seen significant reversal since Bush's second term.

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

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Noam Scheiber of NYT provides this illuminating account of how the changes in employment affected Hispanic Americans since 2004. About 500,000 jobs were created in the U.S. construction industry in 2014. Of this 315,000 jobs went to Hispanics with the highest number in California, Florida, Texas and Illinois, which have large Hispanic population. This has enabled Hispanic employment to reach the pre-recession levels in 2015 before this happens for blacks and whites, according to the Economic Report of the President. The drop in immigrants from Mexico crossing the border as economic conditions deteriorated in the U.S. in 2009-2012, and the stricter enforcement, has resulted in native born Americans benefitting most from the jobs created. Hispanics took the biggest hit following the recession in 2009-2012, with a loss of 700,000 jobs for the 3 million Hispanics employed in construction. During the 2004-2007 construction boom Pew Research shows 1.6 million jobs going to immigrants, of which 800,000 went to native born Hispanics, before the collapse in construction in 2009. This time the recovery is benefitting native born Americans most....

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Researchers David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fiscal Studies in Madrid, in independent research, studied the impact of trade on 722 clusters of interrelated counties in the U.S. They focussed on the surge in Chinese imports and found a pattern. Counties with higher exposure to Chinese import growth showed higher unemployment and higher expenditures by the government for unemployment benefits, food stamps and disability benefits. Their calculations show the increased government payments amount to one to two thirds of the gains from trade with China. This does not include the losses suffered by people losing jobs who deplete savings as they look for new jobs. Hanson studied the effects of trade and Chinese imports in the 1990's and found the effects were relatively small. This time the effects are large and show counties that lacked local investments in industrial machinery and technologies in which China was still playing catchup such as Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois, and Boeing in Everett, Washington, were most susceptible to higher jobless rates and in need of government support payments. Autor and Hanson found that from 2000-2007, communities in the 75th percentile- ones with greater exposure to Chinese import growth than 75% of all communities- saw a manufacturing jobless rate of about one-third more than communities in the 25th percentile. The government payments mean higher taxes or larger deficits are needed to support these communities, and long periods of unemployment reduce the incentive to work. Michael Spence, a Nobel prize winning economist from New York University, says the world has never seen such a rapid pace of growth as China experienced between 2000-2011, with rates approaching 12% in some years, making past experience and prevailing theories on trade an insufficient guide to what is happening....

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Many of the problems in Minnesota came from the tactics employed by a Border patrol agent Bovino who took over Minnesota immigration enforcement in the state. He was removed by the Border head Tom Homan who said some of the tactics used were not what ICE normally has used in the past. Homan has taken over complete control of the operations for immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Todd Lyons (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) RodneyScott (Border Patrol CBP) Joe Edlow Citizenship and Immigration Services made an appearance in US House of Representatives hearings held by the Homeland Security Committee. The immigration enforcement in California, and other states, and law enforcement in Washington DC and Nashville did not meet any of the confrontations that happened in Minnesota. Democrats and Republicans are negotiating ways to come up with law enforcement that does not disturb entire neighborhoods and can be conducted peacefully.

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Norwegian skier Lie McGrath with father US alpine skierand Norwegian mother on Vermont ski team, does something unusual in the Olympics. After leading 0.59 seconds and in a good position for first in downhill skiing in slalom he goes all out but makes one error missing a tightly set gate, then decides to throw his poles, teke off his skiis and go into the woods. He says-

"I thought I would get some peace and quiet, which I didn’t because photographers and police found me out in the woods. I just needed some time for myself.”

McGrath is a 5 time World Cup winner in slalom. He had lost his grandfather just at the start of the games and was distraught. He just decided this was it after the slight error. The Gold, Silver or Bronze medal meant little by that time.

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Speaking at Ulster University president Biden says peace and opportunity go together.  "It is upto us to keep this going, to keep building on the work that has been done every day for the last 25 years. To sustain the peace unleash this incredible economic opportunity, which is just the beginning." The US is stepping in with action. Joseph Kennedy III, the Special envoy to Northern Ireland will lead a trade delegation of US companies to Northern Ireland later this year. Biden also called for the effective devolved government to be restored to bring greater opportunity to this region. It is important to remember as this WSJ report amply shows that president Biden has been an unrelenting champion on the Good Friday Agreement. That it is there today and the Irish border remains in the Irish Sea after Brexit owes much to the personal effort of Mr. Biden from before his election as president to this day and this visit. It is also a measure of the kind of man and the kind of president Mr. Biden is. Keeping his personal ties to Ireland.  ...

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With the arrival of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and John Bolton as National Security Adviser, president Trump finds support for his own instincts on foreign policy. On North Korea, Iran, and China, president Trump takes charge of foreign policy favoring strong bargaining pressure to achieve foreign policy  goals in trade, containing nuclear weapons and reducing conflicts. He sees the peace talks with North Korea as moving in the right direction with his efforts, and makes the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 on May 8, 2018, as he leaves the door open for new negotiations with Iran for a better deal that achieves U.S. goals.