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The vote that could wreck the European Union
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This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.
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Sanders, Trump, in the U.S., Marie Le Pen in France, and Brexiters in England appeal to white working class which has not benefitted from trade agreements and globalization. Globalization has produced very different outcomes for different industries and regions, benefitting some and hurting others. Leaders of existing political parties have failed to grasp and respond to these changes leaving room for others to take up the cause of the white working class. TPP trade agreement for instance benefits the information technology industry and hurts the automobile industry in the U.S., producing unequal outcomes that come after years of job losses and hollowing out in some industries- making it unpopular, and raising questions about the wisdom of such policies when most of the gains in free trade are already behind us according to Krugman and other experts.
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The rising popularity of the National Fornt of Marie Le Pen has led to the Socialist Party under Manuel Valls and Hollande moving to the centre from its earlier Socialist policies.
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The initiative of the German and French Economics ministers Sigmar Gabriel and Emmanuel Macron to call on lecturers Pisani-Ferry and Henrik Enderlein for advice, comes at a time when Germany's growth has declined to zero or negative in the second half of 2014. Both are critics of Merkel's policies. For the first time Merkel is listening to different opinions and advice even as the government says it is sticking to balanced budgets. Finance minister Schauble continues to say investment should be mostly private. ECB president Draghi has generated the discussion by saying at a Brookings Institution conference in Washington D.C. that governments with fiscal space (referring to Germany) should provide stimulus. He added that eurozone governments that do not listen to new advice about generating growth will be swept away by public opinion. German officials privately say they can understand the Hollande government's situation with favorability ratings of 18% at the lowest level of any postwar French government. The situation is now markedly different from before with Berlusconi's old politics gone in Italy, and Matteo Renzi having obtained the largest mandate of any eurozone leader in the recent EU parliamentary elections, receiving 40% of the vote. Renzi and French premier Manuel Valls are pushing for less austerity reflected in the 2015 French budget now being reviewed in Brussels.
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Linked Articles
The vote that could wreck the European Union
The Economist 05/12/2017
An unprecedented election, with unprecedented risks
The Economist 05/12/2017
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