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An unprecedented election, with unprecedented risks

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This essay in the Economist magazine points out the special nature of the 2017 presidential election in France with the rejection of establishment candidates- Manuel Valls, Sarkozy, Juppe, and now Fillon. Fillon and Valls were prime ministers under Sarkozy and Hollande, from the Republican and Socialist parties respectively. With unemployment high in the areas outside the major cities their is a surge in support in these areas for the National Front. Emmanuel Macron, former Economy minister in the Hollande government, is the only candidate leading Marie Le Pen at this time. In a second round of voting he has to bring in centre right supporters and centre left voters and moderate voters, and appeal enough to working class voters, young unemployed people, offering hope for a better future to win this election against Le Pen. Economist magazine research shows support highest for Le Pen outside major cities in outlying areas, and for Macron in the major cities. There is also an education divide as seen in the U.S. election and Brexit referendum with less educated voters preferring the nationalist sentiment, church support sentiment fostered by the National Front. 


France's Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron 2014-

03/09/2015

The shift from Economy Minister Montebourg to Emmanuel Macron in August 2014 marks a significant shift in economic policy of the Hollande administration, to improve conditions for business and lower taxes. France has lagged behind Germany in attracting foreign investment and in the profitability of business enterprises. The 75% tax on individuals making more than 1.1 million euros is seen as sending the wrong signal for new business investment. Macron faces intense opposition from the Socialist party in parliament, yet he has the full support of president Hollande.

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