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Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China’s Yuan

Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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Hedge funds betting against China's currency in Jan. 2016 puts Wall Street at odds with China's central bank's effort to manage the decline in the currency. Some hedge funds see a large drop in the value of the yuan in 2016-2017. China also faces the risk of large capital outflows. This is happening against the backdrop of China's effort to cut overcapacity in steel and other industries, manage large debt and the slowing economy, to shift towards a less export dependent and more domestic consumption oriented economy. Hedge funds are taking short positions against the yuan, as they expect China will need to recapitalize its banks considering the rapid acceleration in debt, leading to further depreciation in the currency.

China's 3.5% devaluation of the renminbi currency (the yuan) on August 11-12, 2015

08/10/2015

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The most affluent of the $737 million Chinese in cities could become nervous about loss of value in the currency and convert up to the maximum of $50,000. This would lead to larger capital outflows than the PBOC has in mind., says Aaron Back of the WSJ in Jan. 2016. This worries the central bank PBOC, because the reserves of $3.3 trillion include illiquid investments such as loans to Venezuela on oil assets, the Asian Infrastructure Bank and other investments. With its large and aging population China also has to keep reserves for future Social Security and other plans.

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Experts close to the central bank say the policy of the PBOC is to make it expensive for speculators to try to make gains on China's yuan currency. PBOC policy according to them is to allow for a modest depreciation and let the currency oscillate. When speculators hope to make gains the central bank intervenes to go the other way. The PBOC hope to limit outflows of capital, a problem in 2015, in this way.

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