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China’s Jittery Savers Could Pose Capital-Flight Threat

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China's affluent people could become nervous about the value of the currency and try to convert into dollars. Aaron Back of the WSJ poses the question what if the affluent 1-2% of China's urban population of 737 million convert the maximum of $50,000 permitted from yuan into dollars. He says the simple math shows this would result in outflows of around $370 billion to $740 billion. This does not include other ways in which money could exit the country. China's foreign exchange reserves are $3.3 trillon, but this includes illiquid investments such as loans to Venezuela for oil assets, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With a large and aging population China has to have reserves to meet social security and other plans for the future. This means the reserves could quickly dwindle with unanticipated capital outflows. This is what keeps central bank PBOC planners focussed on limiting depreciation of the yuan currency.

China's potential capital outflows in 2016-2017 if 1-2% of the urban population convert the max of $50,000 from yuan to dollars- $370 billion -$740 billion

01/15/2016

The most affluent of the $737 million Chinese in cities could become nervous about loss of value in the currency and convert up to the maximum of $50,000. This would lead to larger capital outflows than the PBOC has in mind., says Aaron Back of the WSJ in Jan. 2016. This worries the central bank PBOC, because the reserves of $3.3 trillion include illiquid investments such as loans to Venezuela on oil assets, the Asian Infrastructure Bank and other investments. With its large and aging population China also has to keep reserves for future Social Security and other plans.

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