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No Country for Old Age
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Mark Frazier, a professor at the New School, is the author of the book "Socialist Insecurity: Pensions and Politics of Uneven Development in China." Here he describes the situation in China for the elderly and pensions. There is no Social Security Administration in China like the one in the U.S. Pensions are the responsibility of local authorites. Urban pensions were established in 1951. Pensions for rural areas and farmers came only in 2009. The situation in China for pensions is much like that in the U.S. before FDR's New Deal, being run by a patchwork of local programs- about 2500 county and city governments running pension funds. The problems of pension programs being run for the benefit of well connected groups and making risky investments exists in such local programs. Local governments taking on large levels of debt is a serious problem. The pension program in Shanghai came under scrutiny because of risky investments. A report in Dec 2012 cited by Frazer cites empty accounts at 2.2 trillion yuan or $353 billion. The National Social Security Fund has only $140 billion. Overall pensions account for about 3% of GDP in China compared to 4.9% in the U.S.
Needed changes in China under the Jinping-Keqiang administration- China's pension system and version of Social Security
02/18/2013
A patchwork of local programs run by 2500 county and city governments, more like what existed in the U.S. before FDR's New Deal, is how an expert on pensions in China describes the situation in 2013. Urban pensions have existed since 1951, rural pensions were introduced in 2009. The National Social Security Fund is only partly funded with $140 billion. Local governments taking on large levels of debt, shifting funds to risky investments, and benefitting well connected groups, is a risk for pension funds at the local level. By 2030 the number of rural people depending on the pension program is likely to double, says Frazier, creating a new challenge. A challenge made more acute by the one child policy and retirement for men at 60 and women at 55 years of age, reducing productive workers to support rising population of elderly.
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The fertility rate is estimated by one the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to be at most 1.6, having dropped from close to 3 when the policy was introduced in 1980. Does this policy make sense as the population ages ask critics in the Chinese media? The impact of demographics on China's future.
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The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
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Wall Street Journal 11/16/2013
Calculating Shift to What May Really Be 1.5-Child Policy
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Prof. Xuetong of Tsinghua University, calls for less inequality, social justice and balanced development in China
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Survey in China Shows a Wide Gap in Income
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Hong Kong Wealth Gap on Display in Protests
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Tom Orlik on wealth distribution in China and why increasing consumer spending would require higher incomes for the lower middle class and rural households
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Orlik cites a study by a Chinese university which shows 10% of the households has over 80% of the wealth, and over 50% of the households have little or no savings. This suggests that there is not much room to increase consumer spending on education, healthcare, and consumer goods for these households as incomes are too low. This may account for the insecurity felt by a large majority of households about the future. It also shows that rebalancing the global economy would require rebalancing within China, reducing inequality and improving incomes for the middle class to increase consumer spending.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
Survey in China Shows a Wide Gap in Income
New York Times 07/19/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2013
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