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'Voluntary' Greece Deal Seen Overstated
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Experts say there may not be much difference whether a voluntary deal is reached between Greece and the Institute of International Finance or a deal is forced on private bondholders by Greece for the 93% of Greek bonds that are based on Greek laws. Most of the large banks that hold Greek bonds will be subject to persuasion by European authorites (EU, ECB) to accept the deal offered by Greece that brings debt down to 120% of GDP by 2020. The remaining holdouts are the hedge funds that will want to opt out of a voluntary arrangement anyway, because a forced deal by Greece would allow them to collect payments on their credit default swaps. Adam Lerrick, an expert on sovereign debt restructurings, says the hedge funds and other private bondholders are framing the discussion into one of a voluntary agreement that is orderly and an involuntary agreement that is disorderly, as a tactic to scare the European authorites (the EU, ECB) and Greece. He says not only can forced restructurings be orderly, but in this case the improved prospects for Greece with serious debt reduction would lead to a ratings upgrade for Greece. Some hedge funds have said they will sue if forced into the deal. Michael Waibel, at the Lauerpacht Centre for International Law at Cambridge University, says the case would first go to Greek courts where it would be received without much sympathy, and then to the European Court of Human Rights. Only the small number of bonds under Swiss and English law with pari passu clauses insisting on equal treatment of bondholders have any prospects, and even then legal enforcement of any awards is uncertain as shown in the case of Argentina. The 93% of bonds under Greek law have no such clauses and this gives Greece the option for special treatment of bonds held by the ECB.
BNP Paribas, credit default swaps and bondholders for Greece's debt- tactics and asymmetry
11/19/2011
Grouped Articles
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Credit Default Swaps as a Scare Tactic in Greece
New York Times 11/19/2011
French Banks Thrust Into Limelight
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2012
'Voluntary' Greece Deal Seen Overstated
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2012
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture Fund
New York Times 05/15/2012
BNP Paribas Profit Crunched Amid an Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 08/03/2012
Greece's debt crisis in 2012 after the agreement with private creditors to take 50% of the losses on Greek bonds is not enough to reduce debt to sustainable levels
06/30/2011
Bondholders accepting 50% of losses- as agreed with EU leaders in Nov-Dec 2011 -will not be enough for Greece to meet its debt obligations, because of a fast deteriorating economy. By March 20, 2012, 14.5 billion euros of bonds come up for repayment or refinancing. More money will be needed from the EU. The voluntary exchange by private creditors of existing bonds for new bonds with 50% face value and maturing over a longer period will be made under an agreement using English law. This will be harder to change in the future, putting the burden on any future financing shortfall on EU countries unwilling to make further commitments to Greece.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Europe Fears Rising Greek Cost
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2012
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2012
The growing debate over bondholder haircut, easy money policies, sacrifices, and austerity policies.
11/25/2010
This debate puts British prime minister Cameron, and German chancellor Angela Merkel, on one side, with US President Obama, US central bank chairman Bernanke and other leaders on the other side. The blanket Irish guarantee of all Irish bank debt is an example of improper action that could have prevented the need for an Irish bailout, when guaranteeing only retail Irish bank debt would have worked. Merkel has insisted on bondholders sharing in bank losses, and tougher action required for countries receiving bailouts.
Grouped Articles
A Crisis Needing More Sacrifice
New York Times 11/25/2010
Crises Shake German Trust in Euro Zone
New York Times 11/26/2010
EU Outlines Bond Restructuring Plan
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2010
Europe Backs Irish Rescue and New Rules on Bailouts
New York Times 11/28/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance's assessment of the Greece and eurozone debt restructuring of July 2011 and the Greece bailout in 2015
06/30/2011
Grouped Articles
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
Greek Bailout Negotiator Sees Benefits for Banks
New York Times 07/24/2011
Some Bailout Providers May One Day Need Help Too
New York Times 07/24/2011
Plan for Greece Favors Creditors
New York Times 07/25/2011
In Greek Debt Deal, Clear Benefits for the Banks
New York Times 07/25/2011
The Euro Crisis: Big Rescue, Big Doubts
BusinessWeek 07/28/2011
Germany's insistence that bondholders bear losses in any future EU bailouts.
11/28/2010
Grouped Articles
Europe Backs Irish Rescue and New Rules on Bailouts
New York Times 11/28/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Government debt: Behold 2011, the year of sovereign shocks
Economist 12/18/2010
Europe Needs to Apportion Pain
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2011
Plan for Greece Favors Creditors
New York Times 07/25/2011
Similarities between the experience of Argentina in 2001 and the experience of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in 2010-2012
12/09/2010
The financial crisis in the euro-zone and a similar situation that prevailed in Argentina in 2001. Experts from that period are convinced that euro-zone bondholders will have to accept securities offering less interest and maturing over a longer period.
Grouped Articles
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Argentine Farmers Reap Discontent
Wall Street Journal 05/29/2014
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
If Greece Defaults, Imagine Argentina, but Much Worse
New York Times 06/25/2015
The Argentina Veterans Eye the Euro Warily
BusinessWeek 12/09/2010
Government debt: Behold 2011, the year of sovereign shocks
Economist 12/18/2010
The logjam between the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) and the German government- 2010-2012
07/01/2011
The roots of the Eurozone financial crisis go back to the issue of who should pay for the excess lending of French and German banks. Will it be the German taxpayer or the banks that took excessive risks? German financial experts, the German government and parliament, German public opinion, are all adamantly opposed to letting the banks off without sharing at least 50% of the costs of a bailout. A review done by the European Commission in coordination witht he IMF and the ECB, shows that from May 2010 (the date for the inception of the aid program to Greece) to September 2011, $52 billion of the $91 billion loaned to Greece went to pay bondholders for bonds that came due. The July 2011 EU agreement for Greece called for 21% of losses to be allocated to the bondholders. The German government is pushing for 50% and German parlamentary leaders in Merkel's party are balking at anything less.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
New York Times 04/13/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Most Greek bailout money has gone to pay off bondholders - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/23/2011
Dexiaâs Collapse in Europe Points to Global Risks
New York Times 10/22/2011
European Officials Shaping Greek Rescue and Effort to Aid Banks
New York Times 10/22/2011
Angela Merkel's handling of the financial crises in eurozone countries
04/29/2010
The German response to the debt crisis in the eurozone and the events in 2011-2012.
Grouped Articles
As Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?
New York Times 04/29/2010
Germany Clears Rescue for Greece
New York Times 05/03/2010
Economist 05/13/2010
Germans Respond to Merkel's 'Motherly' Side
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2013
Merkel Wins Big in German Election
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
Germany's Surplus Isn't the Problem
Wall Street Journal 11/11/2013
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