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IMF Urges EU Banks To Raise Capital

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The IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, pointed to the urgent need to recapitalize European banks in September 2011. European banks face potential losses of 120 billion euros for Belgium, Spain and Italy, 60 billion euros for Greece, 20 billion euros for Ireland and Portugal, and 100 billion euros for other banking exposure, for a total of 300 billion euros, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the absence of recapitalization there could be further damage to EU economies from restricted lending by banks. IMF estimates show that deteriorating credit conditions could damage growth in the eurozone countries by 3.5 percentage points, and in the U.S. by 2.2 percentage points, creating another recession.

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Cyprus Popular Bank and the Bank of Cyprus passed EU stress test in 2010 and 2011, resulting in the banks issuing dividends and increased their holdings of Greece's bonds even as the Greece faced a financial crisis in 2010. The losses from Greece bonds totalled 4.3 billion euros for the two banks in 2013, leading to the closing of Laiki Bank and the downsizing of the Bank of Cyprus under an EU bailout. The bank also made other risky investments in Greece, with the chief risk officer of Laiki Bank taking on more risks in 2010-2011 even as other European banks were reducing their investments in Greece.

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Europe Fails Another Stress Test

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EU banks face potential losses of 300 billion euros from troubled EU countries. 120 billion euros from Italy, Spain and Belgium, 60 billion euros from Greece, 20 billion euros from Ireland and Portugal, and $100 billion euros from other banking exposure, accordig to the IMF. IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, has pointed to the urgent need for recapitalization of European banks,urgently because restricted lending by EU banks in the absence of recapitalization could further damage the economies of EU countries.

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Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week calls for debt forgiveness in the August 2011 issue of Business Week. Stretching out the debt issues without writedowns says Coy, only leads to austerity programs, stagnant growth and drags the issues out over many years. Better solutions can be found by starting anew with writedowns now and arrangements to make this possible, and returning to growth sooner. What about moral hazard? There is moral hazard in letting the banks bear no cost for reckless lending decisions, they are as likely to repeat this behaviour says Coy, as Greece or the underwater mortgage borrower in the U.S., if they did not have to bear the consequences of their decisions.

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